AFRI NEWS http://www.au.af.mil/au/research/ Keep up to date with the latest news at the Air Force Research Institute Evolving Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) for Air Force Cyber Defense http://afri.au.af.mil/news_full.asp?id=81 <p>The existing Air Force ISR capability for support to defensive cyberspace operations has to operate in an environment of global adversaries.&nbsp; The effectiveness of Air Force defensive cyber strategy will depend on long range trend analysis of adversary capabilities and intent.&nbsp; An evolution of ISR for cyber defense can improve protection of key Air Force command and control functions, as well as best preserve the Air Force&rsquo;s qualitative technology advantage against adversary network reconnaissance and attack activities.&nbsp; <br />This paper provides several recommendations to advance ISR for cyber defense.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The Air Force should develop a robust ISR Processing, Exploitation and Dissemination (PED) capability devoted to cyberspace.</p> Conflict and Cooperation in Cyberspace: The Challenge to National Security http://afri.au.af.mil/news_full.asp?id=80 <p><strong>Conflict and Cooperation in Cyberspace: The Challenge to National Security</strong> brings together some of the world&rsquo;s most distinguished military leaders, scholars, cyber operators, and policymakers in a discussion of current and future challenges that cyberspace poses to the United States and the world. Maintaining a focus on policy-relevant solutions, it offers a well-reasoned study of how to prepare for war, while attempting to keep the peace in the cyberspace domain.<br /><br />The discussion begins with thoughtful contributions concerning the attributes and importance of cyberspace to the American way of life and global prosperity. Examining the truths and myths behind recent headline-grabbing malicious cyber activity, the book spells out the challenges involved with establishing a robust system of monitoring, controls, and sanctions to ensure cooperation amongst all stakeholders. The desire is to create a domain that functions as a trusted and resilient environment that fosters cooperation, collaboration, and commerce. Additionally, the book:</p> <ul> <li>Delves into the intricacies and considerations cyber strategists must contemplate before engaging in cyber war </li> <li>Offers a framework for determining the best ways to engage other nations in promoting global norms of behavior </li> <li>Illustrates technologies that can enable cyber arms control agreements </li> <li>Dispels myths surrounding Stuxnet and industrial control systems </li> </ul> <p>General Michael V. Hayden, former director of the National Security Agency and the Central Intelligence Agency, begins by explaining why the policymakers, particularly those working on cyber issues, must come to understand the policy implications of a dynamic domain. Expert contributors from the Air Force Research Institute, MIT, the Rand Corporation, Naval Postgraduate School, NSA, USAF, USMC, and others examine the challenges involved with ensuring improved cyber security.<br /><br />Outlining the larger ethical, legal, and policy challenges facing government, the private sector, civil society, and individual users, the book offers plausible solutions on how to create an environment where there is confidence in the ability to assure national security, conduct military operations, and ensure a vibrant and stable global economy.</p> <p><em>The appearance of hyperlinks does not constitute endorsement by the United States Air Force, the Defense Technical Information Center, or the Department of Defense of this Web site, or the information, products or services contained therein. For other than authorized activities such as military exchanges and Morale, Welfare and Recreation (MWR) sites, the United States Air Force does not exercise any editorial control over the information you may find at these locations. Such links are provide consistent with the stated purpose of the Web site.</em></p> THOR Theater History of Operations Reports http://afri.au.af.mil/news_full.asp?id=79 <p>Never before has there been a means of swiftly referencing where and when air strikes have been conducted across the globe. Vague mentions of strategic bombing such as &ldquo;in Germany&rdquo; have never allowed a detailed examination of effects generated or joint fires created when combined with land and sea forces. Conversely, anecdotal stories &ldquo;from the cockpit&rdquo; usually fail to tell the larger operational or strategic story of how that one plane or one squadron fit into the larger campaign narrative. For the first time, THOR provides a quick and reliable way to view air strike activity from 1915 to 1975, and provides the capability to generate historical summaries based on user-selected criteria to answer basic questions of who (callsign, service, country) how many (strikes, weapons, etc) what kind (aircraft, weapons, etc), when, and where. Additionally, by using Google Earth, this information can be presented geographically, and it allows for time series presentations (movies), as well as strike density and weapon intensity comparisons, to be made. Other sources of information, such as population density, etc, can be graphed on Google Earth to compare with air strike information.</p> <p>THOR provides a quick and reliable way to view past airstrike data, and provide a historical summary. Additionally, by using <a href="http://www.google.com/earth/index.html">Google Earth</a>, this information can be presented graphically, and allow for time series presentations.</p> <p>You can find the THOR database at <a title="THOR" href="http://afri.au.af.mil/thor">http://afri.au.af.mil/thor</a></p> Research: An Approach toward an Asia-Pacific Strategy: 2012 to 2020 http://afri.au.af.mil/news_full.asp?id=78 <p>In 2011 the USAF Chief of Staff, General Norton A. Schwartz, directed AFRI to undertake a yearlong study of the role airpower will play in achieving national strategic objectives in the Pacific region through the year 2020. This report, the product of that research, examines three alternative paths that could unfold in the Asia-Pacific region: what would be in the best interest of the United States, what would be in its worst interest, and what is most likely to occur. The report discusses key findings from the three paths and their implications, making recommendations for the Air Force as it prepares for the US pivot to Asia.</p> Keep Cyberwar Narrow http://afri.au.af.mil/news_full.asp?id=77 <p>Writing for The National Interest, AFRI's Pano Yannakogeorgos discusses why broad definitions of cyberwar risks treating crime and espionage as threats to peace.</p> <p><a title="http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/keep-cyberwar-narrow-8459" href="http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/keep-cyberwar-narrow-8459">http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/keep-cyberwar-narrow-8459</a></p> The Asia-Pacific Century : Challenges and Opportunities http://afri.au.af.mil/news_full.asp?id=76 <p>When Secretary of State Hillary Clinton published &ldquo;America&rsquo;s Pacific Century&rdquo; in Foreign Policy magazine in November 2011, the administration was clearly indicating to domestic and international audiences that the United States is beginning a pivot toward the Asia-Pacific. Clinton&rsquo;s article served as a spark for renewed interest in the nation&rsquo;s Asia-Pacific strategy and American interests in the region. This work looks to the future of the Asia-Pacific and examines a broad range of questions that focus on diplomatic, economic, and military challenges facing the region&rsquo;s key players, with a particular focus on their relevance to the US military.</p> New AU Press Book: Lorenz on Leadership http://afri.au.af.mil/news_full.asp?id=75 <p>If you want to learn about leadership, ask an experienced leader. Gen Stephen R. Lorenz, who retired as the commander of Air Education and Training Command, was always interested in leadership. He began writing about it while at the Air Force Academy and has now written numerous articles. He believes that today&rsquo;s leaders need to reflect on the principles that guide them. This practice gave him insights into his own leadership style and fed his knowledge about the foundations of leadership. He shares his knowledge in this compilation. He also believes everyone is a leader in one way or another and should practice the art of leadership by writing about his or her own experiences and mentoring others.</p> <p>You can read it for yourself at <a href="http://aupress.au.af.mil/bookinfo.asp?bid=497">http://aupress.au.af.mil/bookinfo.asp?bid=497</a></p> AFRI Officer Builds Historical Database http://afri.au.af.mil/news_full.asp?id=72 <p>What started as a solution to an information collection problem six years ago, has grown into a substantial database that documents air power through almost 100 years of conflicts.</p> <p>The database, known as THOR - Theater History of Operations Reports - is the brainchild of Lt. Col. Jenns Robertson, who says the database provides a bigger picture of aerial bombing campaigns, demonstrating how useful air power can be, especially when combined with ground forces. Still being developed and updated, THOR combines data from paper mission reports from World War I and digital databases from recent conflicts to create a central pool of bomb history. The database can be searched for certain criteria and output data can be integrated into charts, spreadsheets, graphs or even onto a map.</p> <p>In 2006, Robertson was working at the Pentagon for the Air Force Operations Group. He and his team were required to put out daily briefings for senior Air Force leaders, including a bi-weekly report with current bombing activity. With no one localized source for information, Robertson said it was taking his team 20-40 man-hours a week to pull all the data together from the sources in the area of operations.</p> <p>"I said there had to be a collective database out there; this is the 21st century, we are the Air Force, there has got to be a system out there where we have all this data," Robertson said.</p> <p>After lots of searching, Robertson came up empty, so he set about creating one with the help of Ryan Burr, a computer programmer who also worked at the Pentagon. Initially, they were just concerned with using current bomb data from Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation Enduring Freedom, but after awhile they wanted to be able to answer questions such as how many bombs have been dropped since the start of the war, or by specific aircraft. So Robertson began digging for more information, learning that much of the data prior to 2005 had been deleted in the area of responsibility as server space became an issue. They contacted the Air Force Historical Research Agency at Maxwell and were able to find all the copies of the old mission reports, filling in the bomb data gaps for OIF and OEF back to 2001.</p> <p>"We were able to have the entire war from the start to the current date and just update it every couple of days," said Robertson.</p> <p>In the research process, Robertson learned of another database with bomb and flight information collected during the air war over Serbia in 1999. Robertson and Burr were able to get copies of that database and import it into THOR.</p> <p>"And then we started hunting around to see how far back we could go, because we thought if we had the current war, the previous war, could we get the first Gulf War?" he said.</p> <p>And that's when they were able to locate the Gulf War Air Power Survey data at the Historical Research Agency, detailing every sortie flown in the Gulf War. It was at this point in his research that Robertson started to notice a pattern in the data he was collecting, which he says only emphasizes the importance of the information.</p> <p>"The thing that I thought fascinating is that the databases they were creating were almost identical each time; so the same data, in the same format, in the same content is needed for each war," he said.</p> <p>In 2008, after leaving the Pentagon, Robertson went to Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif., as the 4th Space Launch Squadron operations officer. During his free time, he worked on decoding almost four million Vietnam War entries gathered from the National Archives in Washington. Then Robertson was assigned to the Air Force Research Institute here, where he was able to locate strategic bombing survey information from World War II and battlefield raid reports from World War I, again noticing similarities in the data collected.</p> <p>Looking at the World War I carbon copies filled out on typewriters and the still classified digital reports from today's front lines, Robertson said the material is almost identical in terms of the format and content.</p> <p>"If the information we are providing to our leadership has not changed in 100 years, there is probably something to be said that the information is important to the leadership to make decisions," he said. "Perhaps having the ability to reach back and look at what was decided in previous wars when faced with certain challenges, you can learn something from that and apply that before it happens now."</p> <p>Robertson points to an example comparing a particular scenario in World War I and the Gulf War. In 1944, London and Antwerp were facing rocket attacks from Germany. Allied forces diverted 15 percent of all bombing missions to stop the attacks. Jump forward to 1991 when Scud missiles were being launched from the western desert of Iraq into Israel. Again, Robertson said it worked out to be about 15 percent of Allied air power sent to hunt the Scuds. Both missions were unsuccessful at stopping the launch of attacks until the aircraft started targeting transportation systems - the trains in Germany and the bridges and roadways in Iraq.</p> <p>"It turns out that after the war (World War II) we find out that the liquid oxygen that the rockets needed to launch was being transferred by rail because it was the only way to move it fast enough before it boiled off," Robertson explained.</p> <p>In Iraq, enemy forces were using roads to move around and hide after launching attacks, and if they couldn't escape, they weren't willing to launch because they knew they were drawing attention to their launch location, Robertson said.</p> <p>"So your motivation is different in both cases, but the fact is that regardless of the technology of the time, going after a mobile missile system - don't go after the missile, go after what makes it mobile," he said.</p> <p>That is a lesson, Robertson said, the military can take forward into future conflicts, but added that the potential to learn from THOR's data is unlimited.</p> <p>"I don't know what other kinds of lessons like that hide in this mountain of data. Or how many questions people have that they don't even know how to ask and they don't even know if there is any value in asking because they can't get to the data. So that is part of what is driving me to dig up these older databases and put them all in one location. To be able to look at that comparison across history and see if you can find enduring truths that can help guide future leaders to make decisions," Robertson said.</p> <p>Although THOR is not yet ready for public release, Robertson's primary goals during his time at the research institute are to finish collecting data from the Korean war, and get the database up and running on the Internet.</p> <p>"I don't know what the future holds, but I know I wanted to get this done so that the Air Force could make better decisions, make better informed strategies and educate the future generation of leaders to be able to know what air power can do, has done and the innovative ways we've solved problems in the past that could be useful in the future," he said.</p> <p>by Staff Sgt. Sarah Loicano<br />Air University Public Affairs</p> Airpower for Strategic Effect: by Colin S. Gray http://afri.au.af.mil/news_full.asp?id=71 <p>Airpower for Strategic Effect is intended to contribute to the understanding of airpower&mdash;what it is, what it does, why it does it, and what the consequences are. This is the plot: airpower generates strategic effect. <br /><br />Airpower&rsquo;s product is strategic effect on the course of strategic history. Everything about military airpower is instrumental to the purpose of securing strategic effect.</p> Air Force Leadership Study http://afri.au.af.mil/news_full.asp?id=70 <p>On 23 November 2010, the Air Force chief of staff tasked the Air Force Research Institute (AFRI) to review current Air Force leader development, focusing on the preparation of Airmen for the evolving security challenges in the joint and service environments. This study identifies the characteristics desired for successful senior leaders over the next generation, reviews current Air Force officer development, and recommends changes as indicated to the current officer development process.</p> New Online Only ASPJ is Out http://afri.au.af.mil/news_full.asp?id=68 <p><strong>In this issue</strong><br /><br />Energy Horizons: A Science and Technology Vision for Air Force Energy<br />Dr Mark T Maybury, Chief Scientist, USAF</p> <p>The Combined Bomber Offensive&rsquo;s Destruction of Germany&rsquo;s Refined-Fuels Industry&nbsp;<br />Lt Col Woody W. Parramore, USAF, Retired</p> <p>Building Global Partnerships: 112 Gripes about the French Revisited<br />Col Jim Drape, USAF</p> <p>The Australian Factor in the United States&rsquo; Western Pacific Strategy<br />Liao Kai</p> <p>Common Sense at the Crossroads for Our Air Force<br />Col Russell J. Smith, USAF, Retired<br /><br />The Downfall of Adaptive Planning: Finding a New Approach after a Failed Revolution<br />Lt Col John F. Price Jr., USAF<br /><br />Also: Book Reviews, Doctrine Updates, Selected Air University Research, and Historical Highlights<br />&nbsp;<br />Air and Space Power Journal is published by Air University Press, part of the Air Force Research Institute.</p> AFRI Researcher Article in The Diplomat http://afri.au.af.mil/news_full.asp?id=67 <P>Was Russia Behind Stuxnet? By Panayotis A Yannakogeorgos:&nbsp;The Stuxnet computer worm is widely considered to be a US-Israeli cyber weapon crafted to wreak havoc in Iran's nuclear enrichment plants. But with the identity of the perpetrators still unclear, it might be time to start seeking some alternative explanations. After all, suppose Stuxnet also caught the United States' defense and intelligence communities with their pants down? If this is the case, then a very different story could emerge, one involving faceless groups of Russians and their highly sophisticated cyber warriors.</p> <p>In brief, the case for the United States having designed and developed Stuxnet is as follows: First, neither the United States nor Israel wants Iran to develop nuclear weapons. The worm, then, is seen as likely part of a covert strategy to delay or destroy Iran's nuclear infrastructure while stopping short of war.</p> <p>The weapon was designed to target a specific version of the Siemens SCADA programmable logic controls (PLC) operating a specific configuration and number of cascading centrifuges found in Iran. Some analysts point to the fact that there were vulnerability assessments being run at Idaho National Labs on Siemens PLC software. Others note that the design of the cyber weapon closely fit Richard Clark's description in Cyber War of a well-designed and ethically thought out weapon limiting collateral damage due to a vast army of lawyers scrutinizing the effects. The malware-analyst community, meanwhile, points to digital code strings such as "b:\myrtus\" taken from biblical events important to Israeli identity. And, as the story goes, after the political decisions, vulnerability assessments, and weapon design took place, either an Iranian agent was found to take the USB memory stick into the nuclear facility, or all the computers around the plants were infected with Stuxnet via the conficker worm.</p> <p>However, what about the case for Russian development and deployment? The Russians don't support an Iranian indigenous nuclear capability. Their calculus is that their companies' profit margins will benefit as long as the Iranians keep Russian scientists and engineers in country, who can oversee Iranian nuclear progress. Using its unique insights, Russia then plays a Byzantine game of delay and diplomacy. Delaying a program on technical grounds can't go on indefinitely. At the same time, their involvement in the nuclear program is leverage in Russo-American negotiations.</p> <p>Then there's so-called nuclear gangsterism that was rampant in Chechnya and other breakaway regions over the past two decades. In 1995, for example, Chechen rebels planted a "dirty bomb" in Moscow's Izmailovsky Park. Today, nuclear material is much more secure in Russia thanks to Russo-American cooperation. But should Iran develop a full-blown nuclear capability, Russian national security would be put at risk as Chechen or other violent-Islamic extremist and nationalist rebels look to Iran's version of nuclear entrepreneur AQ Kahn to gain access to nuclear technology. Keeping access to Iran's nuclear program, while keeping the Iranians far from the capacity to "break out" into full nuclear material production, is the balancing act Russia must play.</p> AFRI Receives an Outstanding Rating in Compliance Inspection http://afri.au.af.mil/news_full.asp?id=66 <p><span class="maintext_large">After months of hard work, Maxwell celebrated the end of the Air Education and Training Command compliance inspection with noisemakers, horns and hamburgers on Monday.<br /><br />Cowbells, whistles and sirens filled Polifka Auditorium when the Air University learned it had earned an "excellent" rating.<br /><br />"This is a great report, and I am very pleased," said Lt. Gen. David Fadok, the Air University commander and president.<br /><br />The 42nd Air Base Wing learned of its "satisfactory" rating during an outbrief at the base theater and then hosted a cookout at the Maxwell Event Center to celebrate the base's hard work.<br /><br />"You did really well. Congratulations," said Col. Brian Killough, 42nd ABW commander. "I'm proud of all of you."<br /><br />Last week, AETC inspectors reviewed how well AU and the wing follow Air Force instructions and applicable guidance and policy. For the first time, the inspection team rated the Air University and the wing separately.<br /><br />Fadok and Killough recognized the months of work Maxwell dedicated to preparing for the inspection.<br /><br />"The results represent a tremendous amount of effort on your part," Fadok told the audience at Polifka. "You all were the ones who did the hard work. I am so very, very proud to be a part of this amazing team. Thank you very, very much for giving it your all."<br /><br />Each agency has room for improvement, and Killough encouraged everyone to continue focusing on compliance. "We're going to move out, do better and correct the deficiencies," he said.<br /><br />Fadok also urged Maxwell to continue the momentum and maintain compliance through a robust self-inspection program. "We are the gold standard, and we will maintain the gold standard."<br /><br /></span></p> Asia-Pacific Conference http://afri.au.af.mil/news_full.asp?id=65 <p>In October 2011 the Air Force Research Institute (AFRI) will turn its research effort toward the development of a long range Air Force strategy for the Indo-Pacific. As part of the Air Force Symposium Series and in support of AFRI&rsquo;s research, Air University will host a two-day conference December 6-7, 2011 that is designed to bring leading scholars and practitioners together for an open discussion on the future of the Indo-Pacific. The objective is to capture the perspectives of speakers, panelists, and conference attendees. Partners for the conference are the Royal Australian Air Force&mdash;Airpower Development Centre (RAAF), Air University (AU), and Air Education Training Command (AETC).</p> <p>Keynote speakers include&nbsp;Gen Edward Rice - AETC Commander and Gen. (Ret) Howie Chandler. Other speakers are Dr. Michael Auslin - AEI Director of Japan Studies, Abraham M. Denmark - Center for a New American Security (CNAS), Justin Logan - Director of Foreign Policy Studies,Prof. Jin Canrong - Renmin University, Dr. Sheldon Simon - Arizona State University, Robert Ross - Boston College, Dr. Simon Reich - Rutgers, Dr. Brooks B. Robinson - Economic Advisor, U.S. Pacific Command, Dr. Sanu Kainikara - RAAF Airpower Development Center, and Dr. Dhirendra K. Vajpeyi - University of Northern Iowa.</p> <p>You can view find the conference website at <a href="http://afri.au.af.mil/asiapac/">http://afri.au.af.mil/asiapac/</a>.</p> Air and Space Power Journal, Fall Edition http://afri.au.af.mil/news_full.asp?id=64 <p>The Fall edition of the ASPJ, now available. This issue focuses on Air Force personnel recovery (PR). Adopted by the service in 2009 as a core function, thereby elevating its status, PR is changing the way Airmen communicate this essential mission to our sister services and to each other. The Fall issue also includes articles covering language and culture, tanker recapitalization, missile defense, and the base planning process, along with book reviews to encourage and guide your professional reading selections.</p> AFRI Conference: Cyber Power: The Quest for a Common Ground http://afri.au.af.mil/news_full.asp?id=63 <p>In a recent article in AFRI&rsquo;s Strategic Studies Quarterly, Gen Michael Hayden emphasizes the importance of having a common understanding of cyberspace: &ldquo;Rarely has something been so important and so talked about with less clarity and less apparent understanding than this phenomenon. But few of us (myself included) have created the broad structural framework within which to comfortably and confidently place these varied phenomena. And that matters. I have sat in very small group meetings in Washington, been briefed on an operational need and an operational solution, and been unable (along with my colleagues) to decide on a course of action because we lacked a clear picture of the long-term legal and policy implications of any decision we might make&hellip;&rdquo;</p> <p>To address this problem, AFRI is organizing a symposium on threats in cyberspace in an effort to contribute to a better understanding of the structural sources of cybersecurity challenges, and to identify a common methodology that will serve as framework for identifying solutions and better informed policies.</p> <p>The conference will serve as a forum for the exchange of ideas and experiences amongst cyber professionals from interagency, joint, industry, academic and international entities. This whole of nation approach will give particular attention to articulating and anticipating needs to foster a common methodology on which to base new style partnerships amongst relevant cyber security stakeholders. Register today to join today&rsquo;s whole of nation approach in shaping today&rsquo;s Air Force&rsquo;s IT capabilities to allow every Airman to Fly, Fight and Win in Air, Space and Cyberspace!</p> <h2><a title="Cyber Power: The Quest For a Common Ground" href="http://afri.au.af.mil/cyber" target="_blank">Visit Conference Site</a></h2> AU Press and SSQ recommended by AFA President http://afri.au.af.mil/news_full.asp?id=62 <p>AFA members, Congressional Staff members, Civic Leaders, DOCA members, I have used these notes to help educate you on the importance of Airpower and a strong national defense. Periodically, I have recommended books for you to consider. With this note, I&rsquo;d like to ask you to take a look at the online resources at the Air University. I have bookmarked their web site and refer to it often. See: <a href="http://www.au.af.mil/au/">http://www.au.af.mil/au/</a></p> <p><br />One of the many sets of resources is the AU Press &hellip; where &hellip;AU Press publications (up to 10 titles) are available free of charge to US Department of Defense personnel, organizations and employees of other federal government agencies, and retired military personnel. You can find their site at: <a href="http://aupress.au.af.mil/">http://aupress.au.af.mil/</a><br />Another AU site I keep handy is the Strategic Studies Quarterly. Its articles are thought provoking and topical. You can find it at: <a href="http://www.au.af.mil/au/ssq/">http://www.au.af.mil/au/ssq/</a></p> <p><br />Finally, I&rsquo;d like to recommend one article from the most recent SSQ. It was written by a giant in the field of nuclear deterrence, Dr. Keith Payne &ndash; who is now the President of the National Institute for Public Policy and professor and head of the Graduate Department of Defense and Strategic Studies at Missouri State University (Washington Campus). The piece covers the essence of nuclear deterrence and provides thoughtful reasons why nuclear weapons are necessary for US deterrence and assurance strategies. A few quotes from the piece to interest you:<br /><br />&bull; At the risk of shattering widespread illusions, it is important to understand an inconvenient truth: there is no basis for confident, definitive answers to any of these fundamental [deterrence] questions.</p> <p><br />&bull; The logic of deterrence transcends any particular era or enemy.&rdquo; The problem with this convenient, comforting narrative is that American observers neither control nor often understand how opponents will perceive deterrence threats or what will constitute &ldquo;rational&rdquo; decision making and behavior according to their Weltanschauung. [OK &hellip; I had to look this word up. It means world-view or philosophy of life.]</p> <p><br />&bull; Conventional deterrence has been manifestly effective on occasion, but it also has an unfortunate 2,000-year record of periodically failing catastrophically: most recently, there were no nuclear weapons to deter war in 1914 and 1939. What followed were approximately 110 million casualties in fewer than 10 combined years of warfare. The subsequent 6-1/2 nuclear decades compare very favorably to that horrific prenuclear record.</p> <p>&bull; It is useful to close with the observation that our preferred force numbers and types should follow the demands of strategy, not the reverse. This is no less true when that strategy is deterrence. Credible deterrence is a precious product that defies easy or precise prediction. But, we do know that in the past, nuclear deterrence contributed to preventing conflict or escalation, and it may be necessary to do so again when we face severe risks. Consequently, the maintenance of credible nuclear deterrence should continue to be a national priority.<br />The piece is a bit long &ndash; recommend you print it. You can find it at: <a href="http://www.au.af.mil/au/ssq/2011/summer/payne.pdf">http://www.au.af.mil/au/ssq/2011/summer/payne.pdf</a>.</p> <p><br />For your consideration.<br />Mike Michael M. Dunn Lt General (Ret), USAF President/CEO Air Force Association</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> Latest Air and Space Power Journal is Online http://afri.au.af.mil/news_full.asp?id=61 <p>In this issue&nbsp;Maj Gen Charles W Lyon, USAF and Lt Col Andrew B Stone, USAF discuss Right-Sizing Airpower Command and Control for the Afghanistan Counterinsurgency .</p> <h2>Also in this issue:</h2> <p>-&nbsp;Criticality of Defense-Focused Technical Education</p> <p>- Air Force Institute of Technology in Focus, plus the "Empowered" Air Component Coordination Element</p> <p>- The Cyber Warfare Professional</p> <p>- Tools of Change--Tactical C4ISR and Conflicts</p> <p>- Airpower and Counterinsurgency</p> <p>&hellip;and more</p> Summer edition SSQ is out http://afri.au.af.mil/news_full.asp?id=60 <p>Don't miss GEN Keith Alexander's article on Building a New Command in Cyberspace.</p> <h3>Commentary</h3> <p><a href="http://lyris.dmasa.dma.mil/t/2605601/7453263/18038/0/">Building a New Command in Cyberspace</a><br />GEN Keith B. Alexander, USA</p> <h3>Feature Article</h3> <p><a href="http://lyris.dmasa.dma.mil/t/2605601/7453263/18039/0/">Maintaining Flexible and Resilient Capabilities<br />for Nuclear Deterrence</a><br />Keith B. Payne</p> <h3>Perspectives</h3> <p><a href="http://lyris.dmasa.dma.mil/t/2605601/7453263/18040/0/">Deterrence at the Operational Level of War</a><br />James Blackwell</p> <p><a href="http://lyris.dmasa.dma.mil/t/2605601/7453263/18041/0/">Considerations for a US Nuclear Force Structure below<br />a 1,000-Warhead Limit</a><br />Col David J. Baylor, USAF</p> <p><a href="http://lyris.dmasa.dma.mil/t/2605601/7453263/18042/0/">The Sources of Instability in the Twenty-First Century:<br />Weak States, Armed Groups, and Irregular Conflict</a><br />Richard Shultz, Roy Godson, Querine Hanlon, and Samantha Ravich</p> <p><a href="http://lyris.dmasa.dma.mil/t/2605601/7453263/18043/0/">Deciphering Cyberpower: Strategic Purpose in<br />Peace and War</a><br />John B. Sheldon</p> <p><a href="http://lyris.dmasa.dma.mil/t/2605601/7453263/18044/0/">Interagency Task Forces: The Right Tools for the Job </a><br />Lt Col Robert S. Pope, USAF</p> From the Mind to the Feet - Assessing the Perception-to-Intent-to-Action Dynamic http://afri.au.af.mil/news_full.asp?id=59 <p>There is a corpus of experience in the law enforcement profession of dealing with criminals and criminal behavior, which, when understood in the context of support to and facilitation of terrorist activity, can help the defense community understand adversarial intent. Law enforcement streetcraft reveals that criminals have common motivators in which patterns of activity emerge that are known and measurable. These patterns contain embedded signatures which, when analytically unraveled, reveal the tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTP) of the individuals or groups responsible for the illegal activity. Rational-choice-based approaches in law enforcement to recognizing a criminal&rsquo;s intent are routinely used to help understand and anticipate criminality. Modus operandi analysis also assists in determining intent in that it forms the basis of many pattern/signature matching approaches used to identify suspects in an investigation. While previous patterns of behavior have not been conclusively proven to ensure accurate prediction of future behavior or intent, they do provide indicators and can contribute to analysis and moving the decision cycle &ldquo;to the left,&rdquo; before intent becomes action.</p> AFRI's Strategic Studies Quartely article featured on Wired.com http://afri.au.af.mil/news_full.asp?id=58 <p>Kevin Poulsen, a senior editor at Wired&nbsp;discusses the article featured in the current edition of the SSQ from retired four-star Gen Michael Hayden. To read the Wired.com article visit the link below, or visit the <a href="http://www.au.af.mil/au/ssq/spring11.asp" target="_blank">SSQ Webisite </a>to read the Gen Hayden article for yourself.</p> <p><a href="http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2011/03/hayden-cyber/">http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2011/03/hayden-cyber/</a></p> AFRI and USAF Minerva Energy & Environmental Security Initiative to Host Summit http://afri.au.af.mil/news_full.asp?id=56 <p>The Air Force Research Institute and USAF Minerva Energy &amp; Environmental Security Initiative will host a&nbsp;Minerva Energy&nbsp;and Security Summit at Air University, Maxwell AFB, AL September 27 -28, 2011.</p> <p>For more information visit <a href="http://afri.au.af.mil/minerva/">http://afri.au.af.mil/minerva/</a>.</p> AFRI's Air University Press has books reviewed in the JACC journal http://afri.au.af.mil/news_full.asp?id=55 <p>Air University Press publications The Role of Airpower in the Iran-Iraq War by Ronald E Bergquist and Divining Victory: Air Power in the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah War by William M Arkin are reviewed in edition 13 of the Journal of the The Joint Air Power Competence Center (JAPCC).</p> <p>Air University (AU) Press, a division of the Air Force Research Institute Maxwell AFB, Alabama, publishes school-selected student papers, faculty research efforts, textbooks, and curriculum-related materials, as well as the Air University Catalog and other administrative documents that directly support AU's program of professional military education (PME).</p> <p>The Journal of the JAPCC is the professional publication of NATO&acute;s Joint Air Power Competence Center aiming to serve as a forum for the presentation and stimulation of innovative thinking on NATO air power related issues such as doctrine, strategy, force structure and readiness.</p> AFRI Researcher Interview during AETC Symposium http://afri.au.af.mil/news_full.asp?id=52 <p>Defense contractors showcased futuristic gadgets at the Air Education Training Command Symposium at the Henry B Gonzalez Convention Center today.&nbsp; <br /><br />Posted From KABB Fox San Antonio</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><br /><a id="player" style="display: block; width: 425px; height: 300px;" href="http://afri.au.af.mil/documents/aetc.flv"></a></p> <p>View Full Article <a href="http://www.foxsanantonio.com/newsroom/top_stories/videos/vid_4731.shtml?sms_ss=email&amp;at_xt=4d3ef5728df17cdc%2C0">Here</a></p> <script type="text/javascript">// <![CDATA[ flowplayer("player", "flowplayer-3.2.5.swf"); // ]]></script> AUPRESS book Attitudes Aren't Free is discussed in Checkpoints Magazine http://afri.au.af.mil/news_full.asp?id=51 <p>The December issue of Checkpoints Magazine&nbsp;features an article about the AUPRESS publication Attitudes Aren't Free: Thinking Deeply About Diversity in the Armed Forces. The article discusses the amount of work that was involved in creating the book, and how it has become one of the most popular books published by the Air University Press.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="http://afri.au.af.mil/documents/checkpoints.pdf" target="_blank">Read the article Here</a></p> AFRI Researcher Op-Ed in Politico http://afri.au.af.mil/news_full.asp?id=50 <p>AFRI researcher Adam Lowther discusses the future of the US military in the face of budget cuts and troop reductions.</p> AFRI Director Talks Leadership with Troy University Graduates http://afri.au.af.mil/news_full.asp?id=49 <p>MONTGOMERY&mdash;Retired US Air Force General John A Shaud reminded Troy University graduates that their new degrees will not only open doors, but create opportunities to be leaders at home, work and in the community.</p> <p><img style="float: left; padding: 5px;" src="http://afri.au.af.mil/img/shaud_troy.jpg" alt="" />&nbsp;Shaud, director of the Air Force Research Institute at Maxwell Air Force Base, delivered the keynote address to graduates at the Montgomery Campus during fall commencement on Tuesday, Dec. 14, inside the Davis Theatre for the Performing Arts.</p> <p>&nbsp;TROY Chancellor Jack Hawkins, Jr., conferred more than 170 graduate and undergraduate degrees during the 7 p.m. ceremony. Shaud told graduates that earning a degree will create new opportunities for the future and leave them better prepared to deal with life&rsquo;s surprises.</p> <p>&ldquo;What&rsquo;s going on here this evening is going to change your life forever,&rdquo; Shaud said. &ldquo;When you have a degree, the door will open to opportunities that were not available without a degree &hellip; and because of that flexibility in your preparation, you can handle a surprise, like an economic downturn.&rdquo;</p> <p>But along with opportunity, Shaud reminded graduates that having a college degree creates the expectation of leadership. &ldquo;Whether its in the workplace &hellip; (or) in the home, it's all about interpersonal relationships,&rdquo; Shaud said. &ldquo;It&rsquo;s in the church; it&rsquo;s wherever you live.&rdquo;</p> <p>Shaud said good leadership requires both intelligence and compassion. &ldquo;As a leader you should use your intelligence to not only describe what needs to be done, but take it one step further and explain why,&rdquo; Shaud said. He also urged graduates to convey energy by maintaining a personal connection with the people they lead.</p> <p>&nbsp;&ldquo;I want to mention ... the energy of your presence, how important it is for you to be with the person [when] you are discussing their performance, discussing their job,&rdquo; Shaud said. &ldquo;Your presence conveys energy and interest and an interpersonal relationship that email and social networking can never do.&rdquo;</p> <p>Shaud retired from active duty in 1991 after 35 years of service. He is a former command pilot with more than 5,600 flying hours whose last active duty position was chief of staff of the Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe.</p> <p>Read Troy Press Release <a href="http://www.troy.edu/news/archives/2010/december/12152010_montgomery_commencement.html" target="_blank">Here</a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> Airpower Command & Control Workshop http://afri.au.af.mil/news_full.asp?id=48 <p>AFRI just completed a two-day, CSAF-directed workshop focused on how to organize most effectively to provide command and control of air forces. The results of this workshop will have an immediate effect on senior leader decisions. This workshop provided the opportunity for a group of AF-wide C2 SME's to discuss and assess Air Force C2 and then define the most critical issues that need to be addressed by Air Force Senior Leaders. This list of critical issues will then be posed as questions/topics at a larger C2 Airpower conference held in the March/April timeframe at Maxwell AFRB.&nbsp; <br /><br />Please check back frequently to catch the latest news on this hot conference.</p> AFRI Gets a Mention in the Economist http://afri.au.af.mil/news_full.asp?id=46 <p>Air Force Research Institute "air-power strategist" Robyn Read is quoted in the Economist, talking about&nbsp;Air Power on the Cheap, How small, slow and inexpensive propeller-driven planes are starting to displace fighter jets. Check it out.</p> AFRI Wins Award! http://afri.au.af.mil/news_full.asp?id=45 <p><span class="entry">The Air Force Research Institute (AFRI) was awarded the AFA's Citation of Honor Award at this years&nbsp;Air &amp; Space Conference and Technology Exposition in Washington, D.C.&nbsp;&nbsp;<br /><br />The Award is given for the outstanding contribution of an individual or organization to the development of aerospace power for the betterment of mankind. </span></p> <h3><strong><span class="entry">&nbsp;</span></strong></h3> <h3><strong><span class="entry">&nbsp;</span></strong></h3> Air University's The Wright Stuff -Vol 5, Issue 9 http://afri.au.af.mil/news_full.asp?id=36 <p>10 Sep 2010<br /><br />Get the latest news from around the military and the world.</p> <p>Get it <a title="The Wright Stuff" href="http://www.au.af.mil/au/aunews" target="_blank">Here</a></p> <p>In this issue:&nbsp;</p> <p>-&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Gen Lorenz on Leadership</p> <p>-&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; John Conway on language education</p> <p>-&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Gene Kamena on Leadership</p> <p>-&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Mark Stout on funding in DoD</p> <p>-&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; CMSgt Smith on developing Airmen</p> <p>-&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Admiral Stavridis with an Afghan Ops Report</p> <p>-&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; AU Hosts cyber conference</p> <p>-&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &hellip;and more&nbsp;</p> New Horizons - Coalition Space Operations (ASPJ Summer 2010) http://afri.au.af.mil/news_full.asp?id=35 <p>The author (Lt Col Thomas Single, USAF) analyzes inefficiencies in the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan, arguing for the inclusion of robust coalition space operations.&nbsp; Noting that coalition operations require the leveraging of all available resources, including critical enablers such as space capabilities, he promotes coalition space support teams as the most effective means of mitigating current challenges.</p> <p><strong><a href="http://www.airpower.au.af.mil/airchronicles/apj/apj10/sum10/10Single.html">Article Available Here</a></strong></p> ASPJ-Chinese Summer-2010 Issue Online http://afri.au.af.mil/news_full.asp?id=34 <p>The summer 2010 issue of the Chinese edition of Air &amp; Space Power Journal (ASPJ-Chinese) is now available online. This issue includes the following articles:</p> <ul> <li>Gen Lorenz on Leadership - Cherishing your spouse - A dynamic tradition - Motivation</li> <li>Directed Energy: A Look to the Future</li> <li>The United States Air Force Expeditionary Center</li> <li>Understanding the American Military: Demographics, Personality Traits, Leadership Psychology, and Worldview</li> <li>Recruiting for 2030: Is the US Air Force Getting the Recruits It Needs for the Future?</li> <li>Minimizing the Loss of Student Pilots from Voluntary Attrition</li> <li>War Fighters in Acquisition: A Requirements Document for the Test Professional</li> <li>A Cyber Proving Ground: The Search for Cyber Genius</li> <li>Culture Clash: Bomber Nuclear Operations in a Post&ndash;Cold War World</li> <li>Global Dynamic Operations: Allocation of Remotely Piloted Aircraft among Combatant Commands</li> <li>KC-X: The Game Changer for Mobility</li> <li>Damage Control: Leveraging Crisis Communications for Operational Effect</li> <li>ANACONDA:&nbsp; A Flawed Joint Planning Process</li> </ul> <p>Inaugurated in summer 2007, ASPJ-Chinese quickly established itself as an authentic forum for exchange of ideas between US and China military professionals. The journal is highly respected by Chinese-speaking readers in China and around the world.</p> The Wright Stuff, Vol 5, No 14 http://afri.au.af.mil/news_full.asp?id=28 <p>The&nbsp;newest edition of The Wright Stuff&nbsp;is now available online.</p> <p>Topics in this issue include:</p> <ul> Secretary Donley on AF Nuke Enterprise </ul> <ul> Gen Lorenz on Leadership </ul> <ul> 2Lt Hoeft on AF Fellows Program </ul> <ul> Col Forrest on Leadership </ul> <ul> Professor Allen on military leaders </ul> <ul> Capt Tucker on innovation </ul> <ul> Gene Kamena on Gen McChrystal </ul> <ul> Lt Col Kovich on ICBM maintenance personnel mgt </ul> Leading and Managing through Influence ASPJ Summer 2010 http://afri.au.af.mil/news_full.asp?id=23 <p>Many experts, including Ken Blanchard, argue legitimately that managing and leading are all about influencing people to accomplish tasks and objectives. Managing and leading through influence in the context used in this article present some unique challenges due to the absence of direct, hierarchical authority (i.e., not all of the people who need to be influenced work directly for the manager or leader). This type of challenge occurs naturally in a matrix organization, in which project managers are supported by functional-specialty experts (e.g., engineers, logisticians, financiers, etc.) who may or may not be collocated with the project team. The challenge of managing and leading through influence in this type of situation is somewhat mitigated because the head of the organization has directed that the project be carried out, has placed the project manager in charge to lead the effort, and has directed the functional leaders to support the project. Similarly, in a joint environment, the services have to rely on each other, but their component commanders all report to a joint force commander in charge of the campaign. <a title="Read Full Article" href="http://www.airpower.au.af.mil/airchronicles/apj/apj10/sum10/01shulstad.html" target="_blank">Read Full Article</a></p> AU Press Bookstore Has Moved http://afri.au.af.mil/news_full.asp?id=20 <p>The AU Press bookstore has moved into its permanent location (east end) of the Air Force Research Institute building 693. If you wish to contact the Customer Service Desk you can call(334) 953-2773/6136. You can visit the AUPress website at <a href="http://aupress.maxwell.af.mil/">http://aupress.maxwell.af.mil/</a></p>