CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATIONAL SECURITY


April 2008

Compiled by Bibliography Branch
Muir S. Fairchild Research Information Center
Maxwell AFB, AL


Contents

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All sites listed were last accessed on April 18, 2008.


Internet Resources


 

Barnett, Jon.  Security and Climate Change.  Norwich, United Kingdom, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, October 2001.  (Working Paper, 7).
Available online at:  http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/publications/working_papers/wp7.pdf
This paper explores the range of possible connections between climate change and security.  It discusses the widely held assumption that climate change will trigger violent conflict, arguing that if they occur such conflicts are likely to be at the local rather than international scale, in weak states and in climate sensitive regions.

Burd, Michael L.  Global Warming and the Combatant Commander:  Engaging the Arctic Region.  Newport, RI, Naval War College, October 2006.  26 p.
Available online at:  http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA463334
The Arctic region is reemerging as a potential theater of operations because of changes brought forth by the phenomenon known as global warming.  A characteristic that clearly distinguishes the Arctic from other U.S. geographic combatant commander (GCC) areas of responsibility is that its landscape is literally changing in physical composition.  This reality brings with it many significant and far-reaching security implications.

Busby, Joshua.  Who Cares about the Weather?  Climate Change and U. S. National Security.  June 2005.  54 p.
Available online at:  http://www.gechs.org/downloads/holmen/Busby.pdf
Paper presented at "Human Security and Climate Change:  An International Workshop", Oslo, Norway, June 21-23, 2005.

Busby, Joshua W.  Climate Change and National Security:  An Agenda for Action.  Washington, Council on Foreign Relations Press, November 2007.  40 p.
Available online at:  http://www.cfr.org/publication/14862/climate_change_and_national_security.html
Recognizing that some climate change is inevitable, the author proposes policy options to reduce the vulnerability of the United States and other countries to the predictable effects of climate change.  He also draws attention to the strategic dimensions of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, arguing that sharp reductions in the long run are essential to avoid unmanageable security problems.

Campbell, Kurt M. and others.  The Age of Consequences:  The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global Climate Change.  Washington, Center for Strategic and International Studies, November 2007.  125 p.
Available online at:  http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA473826
Although the consequences of global climate change may seem to be the stuff of Hollywood--some imagined, dystopian future--the melting ice of the Arctic, the spreading deserts of Africa, and the swamping of low lying lands are all too real.  We already live in an "age of consequences," one that will increasingly be defined by the intersection of climate change and the security of nations.

CNA Corporation.  National Security and the Threat of Climate Change.  2007.  36 p.
Available online at:  http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA469156
Also available at:  http://securityandclimate.cna.org/ . Examines the national security consequences of climate change.  A dozen retired admirals and generals served as a Military Advisory Board to study how climate change could affect US security, addressing such questions as:  (1) What conditions are climate changes likely to produce around the world that would represent security risks to the US? (2) What are the ways in which these conditions may affect America's national security interests? (3) What actions should the nation take to address the national security consequences of the climate change?

Di Mento, John M.  Beyond the Water's Edge:  United States National Security & the Ocean Environment .  Medford, MA, Tufts University, Office of Government Programs, December 2006.  591 p.  (Thesis, Ph.D.).
Available online at:  http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA468078
See especially Chapter 5:  Triton:  Altimetry, Anti-Submarine Warfare and Climate Change, pp 374-519.

Droege, Peter.  Energy, Cities, and Security:  Tackling Climate Change and Fossil Fuel Risk.  Whitehead Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations 7, no. 2:  Summer-Fall 2007.
Available online at:  http://www.ciaonet.org/olj/shjdir/v8n2/v8n2_06.pdf
Article may also be available online at:  http://www.journalofdiplomacy.org/

Gleditsch, Nils Petter and others.  Climate Change and Conflict:  The Migration Link.  New York, International Peace Academy, May 2007.  13 p.  (Coping with Crisis Working Paper Series).
Available online at:  http://www.ipacademy.org/asset/file/169/CWC_Working_Paper_Climate_Change.pdf

Greene, Patrice E.  Military Implications of Global Warming.  Carlisle Barracks, PA, Army War College, May 1999.  42 p.
Available online at:  http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA363890

Hulme, Mike.  Abrupt Climate Change:  Can Society Cope?  Norwich, United Kingdom, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, March 2003.  (Working Paper, 30).
Available online at:  http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/publications/working_papers/wp30.pdf

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Available online at:  http://www.ipcc.ch/index.htm
The IPCC, a scientific intergovernmental body, was established to provide an objective source of information about climate change.  It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate-related data or parameters. Its role is to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis the latest scientific, technical and socio-economic literature produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change, its observed and projected impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation.

International Workshop on Human Security and Climate Change.  Oslo, Norway, University of Oslo, Global Environmental Change and Human Security International Project Office, June 21-23, 2005.
Available online at:  http://www.gechs.org/2005/06/24/holmen_workshop/
Site includes links to more than 40 papers and presentations on climate change and security.

Johnson, Douglas V. II.  Global Climate Change:  National Security Implications.  Carlisle Barracks, PA, Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, 2007.  5 p.
Available online at:  http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA466551

Klug, Andrew J.  Global Warming:  A National Security Issue.  Newport, RI, Naval War College, February 2006.  22 p.
Available online at:  http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA463560
The waters in the Canadian Arctic are quickly becoming free to navigate due to global warming.  As international shipping bombards the region, the United States and Canada must be ready to face the security implications that will arise.  A failure to do so may leave an opening for another terrorist strike on American soil.

Nordas, Ragnhild and Gleditsch, Nils Petter.  Climate Change and Conflict.  Political Geography 26:627-638:  August 2007.
Available online at:  http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=aph&AN=26582404&site=ehost-live
Given the combined uncertainties of climate and conflict research, the gaps in our knowledge about the consequences of climate change for conflict and security appear daunting.  Authors present some of the problems and opportunities in this line of research, summarize the contributions in this special issue, and discuss how the security concerns of climate change can be investigated more systematically.

Pittenger, Richard F. and Gagosian, Robert B.  Global Warming Could Have a Chilling Effect on the Military.  Defense Horizons No. 33:1-8 Washington, National Defense University, Center for Technology and National Security Policy, October 2003.
Available online at:  http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA422382
The new paradigm of abrupt climate change does not appear to be on the radar screens of military planners, who treat climate change as a long term, low-level threat, with mostly sociological, not national security, implications.  But intense and abrupt climate changes could escalate environmental issues into unanticipated security threats, and could compromise an unprepared military.

Sappenfield, Mark.  Global Warming May Heat Up Conflicts, Too.  Christian Science Monitor, p 13, December 6, 2007.
Available online at:  http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=1393577161&sid=3&Fmt=3&clientId=417&RQT=309&VName=PQD

Sappenfield, Mark.  Six Places in the World Where Climate Change Could Cause Political Turmoil.  Christian Science Monitor, p 14, December 6, 2007.
Available online at:  http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=1393577201&sid=3&Fmt=3&clientId=417&RQT=309&VName=PQD

Schlauder, W. E.  Adapting to a Changing World:  The United States, Climate Change, and the Arctic Maritime Commons.  Newport, RI, Naval War College, November 2007.  32 p.
Available online at:  http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA476708
A new Arctic maritime commons is opening as a tangible reality of climate change.  In the next two decades, portions of the Arctic will be largely ice free for many months of the summer.  With the retreat of the Arctic ice, new direct shipping routes between the Atlantic and Pacific will open.  What strategic interests does the United States have in the region and what role will the country take in an ice-free Arctic?  What is the nature of the command and control organization required for the United States to operate in this emerging maritime commons?

Talbott, Basil.  Military Commanders Urge Deeming Climate a Security Issue.  CongressDaily AM  May 10, 2007.
Available online at:  http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=f5h&AN=25028253&site=ehost-live
Three retired U.S. military officers have testified in the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee that global climate change poses a national security threat that requires immediate action at high levels of the federal government.

United Nations.  Gateway to the UN System's Work on Climate Change.  2008.
Available online at:  http://www.un.org/climatechange/index.shtml

United States.  Congress.  Senate.  Committee on Foreign Relations.  Climate Change:  National Security Threats.  Hearing.  110th Congress,1st session.  Washington, May 9, 2007.
Available online at:  http://www.senate.gov/~foreign/hearings/2007/hrg070509a.html
Witnesses include Admiral Joseph W. Prueher, General Charles F. Wald, and Vice Admiral Richard H. Truly.

Yackle, Terri A.  Global Climate Change:  Threat Multiplier for AFRICOM?  Newport, RI, Naval War College, November 2007.  23 p.
Available online at:  http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA476789
Presents the case of Darfur, Sudan, as the first climate change crisis to challenge the new combatant commander for AFRICOM.  The Darfur region has experienced a 40% decrease in rainfall since the early 1980s and is steadily losing agricultural production due to the Sahara's southward expansion.  In 2003, competition for food and water devolved into regional conflict.  This conflict is continuing to escalate into genocide; more than 200,000 people have been killed and 2.5 million refugees have been displaced.


Books


Ackerman, John T.  Global Climate Change:  Catalyst for International Relations Disequilibria?  University of Alabama, Department of Political Science, 2004.  293 leaves.  (Thesis, Ph.D.)
The changing climate could be an environmental catalyst that may precipitate political, social, and economic transformations.  Politically, the outcomes of global warming could initiate replacement of the dominant international relations paradigm.
Also available online at:  http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA427007
Book call no.:  327.101 A182g

De Blij, Harm J.  Why Geography Matters:  Three Challenges Facing America:  Climate Change, the Rise of China, and Global Terrorism.  New York, Oxford University Press, 2005.  308 p.
Book call no.:  909.83 D286w

Fagan, Brian.  The Great Warming:  Climate Change and the Rise and Fall of Civilizations.  New York, Bloomsbury, 2008.  282 p.
Book call no.:  904.5 F151g

Homer-Dixon, Thomas.  Environment, Scarcity, and Violence.  Princeton, NJ, Princeton University Press, 1999.  253 p.
Book call no.:  303.6 H766e

Human and Environmental Security:  An Agenda for Change, edited by Felix Dodds and Tim Pippard.  Sterling, VA, Earthscan, 2005.  270 p.
Chapter 8:  Climate Change:  Emerging Insecurities, by Melinda Kimble, pp 103-114.
Book call no.:  327.172 H918

Linden, Eugene.  The Winds of Change:  Climate, Weather, and the Destruction of Civilization.  New York, Simon & Schuster, 2006.  302 p.
Book call no.:  551.60901 L744w

National Security and the Threat of Climate Change.  Alexandria, VA, CNA Corporation, 2007.  63 p.
Also available online at:  http://securityandclimate.cna.org/report/
Book call no.:  355.033573 N2776

Pearce, Fred.  With Speed and Violence:  Why Scientists Fear Tipping Points in Climate Change.  Boston, Beacon Press, 2007.  278 p.
Table of contents is available at:  http://catdir.loc.gov/catdir/toc/ecip0615/2006019901.html
Book call no.:  551.6 P3591w

Schwartz, Peter and Randall, Doug.  An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security.  Emeryville, CA, Global Business Lab, 2003.  23 p.
Also available online at:  http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA469325
Book call no.:  551.6 S3999a

United States.  Congress.  House.  Committee on Government Reform.  Climate Change:  Understanding the Degree of the Problem.  Hearing.  109th Congress, 2nd session, July 20, 2006.  Washington, GPO, 2006.  267 p.
Also available online at:  http://purl.access.gpo.gov/GPO/LPS75761
Book call no.:  363.73874 U58c


Documents


Davis, Addison D., IV.  Emerging Non-Traditional Security Issues for the New Millennium.  Carlisle Barracks, PA, Army War College, [1999].  31 p.
Discussion includes the Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change, which could regulate military fuel consumption.
Also available online at:  http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA368247
Doc. call no.:  M-U 39080-537 D2611e

Hill, David B.  Force Projection, Strategic Agility and the Big Meltdown.  Newport, RI, Naval War College.  Joint Military Operations Dept., 2001.  26 p.
Due to global warming, the polar icepack which covers the Arctic Sea is melting.  One of the very likely results of this environmental phenomenon is the year-round opening of the Arctic maritime sea routes.  The strategic and operational implications for U.S. national and military security strategies would be significant.  Future use of the Arctic Sea routes would directly support the national security strategy, in a highly complex global security environment which will often require rapid and sustained U.S. military response to threats and crises.
Also available online at:  http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA392872
Doc. call no.:  M-U 41662 H645f

United States.  Government Accountability Office.  Climate Change Research:  Agencies Have Data-Sharing Policies but Could Do More to Enhance the Availability of Data from Federally Funded Research.  Washington, GAO, September 2007.  55 p.
Also available online at:  http://purl.access.gpo.gov/GPO/LPS87935
Doc. call no.:  M-U 41026-173 no.07-1172


Periodicals


Ackerman, John T.  Climate Change, National Security, and the Quadrennial Defense Review:  Avoiding the Perfect Storm.  Strategic Studies Quarterly 2:56-96 Spring 2008.
Also available online at:  http://www.au.af.mil/au/ssq/2008/Spring/ackerman.pdf

Apocalypse Now.  Harper's Magazine 308:26-29 May 2004.
Presents an excerpt from an October 2003 report from the U.S. Department of Defense entitled "An Abrupt Climate-Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security."
Also available online at:  http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=aph&AN=12859135&site=ehost-live&custid=airuniv

Arnold-Forster, Josh.  A Matter of Security.   New Statesman 136:15 January 29, 2007.
Discusses the interest shown by Great Britain's Ministry of Defense in problems arising from global warming and climate change.  In 2007, the ministry was developing plans for the British armed forces to deal with conflicts that arise from environmental calamities.
Also available online at:  http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=aph&AN=23784437&site=ehost-live&custid=airuniv

Beckett, Margaret.  The Case for Climate Security.  RUSI Journal 152:54-58 June 2007.
Also available online at:  http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=1313494941&sid=2&Fmt=3&clientId=417&RQT=309&VName=PQD

Blanche, Ed.  Climate Conflicts.  Middle East No. 386:8-12 February 2008.
Because of climate change and the flooding caused by rising sea levels due to melting glaciers and ice caps, experts say that food production will be critically affected, bringing hunger, political instability and potential cataclysm - not to mention hordes of refugees pouring across the Mediterranean into southern Europe.
Also available online at:  http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=1426461171&sid=1&Fmt=3&clientId=417&RQT=309&VName=PQD

Brown, Neville.  Climate and Conflict.  RUSI Journal 135:79-83 Winter 1990.

Brown, Neville.  Climate, Ecology and International Security.  Survival 31:519-532 November-December 1989.

Brown, Oli and others.  Climate Change as the "New" Security Threat:  Implications for Africa.  International Affairs 83:1141-1154 November 2007.
Political momentum behind the idea of climate change as a security threat has progressed quickly, even reaching the United Nations Security Council.  This article reviews the linkages between climate change and security in Africa and analyses the role of climate change adaptation policies in future conflict prevention.
Also available online at:  http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=aph&AN=27161599&site=ehost-live&custid=airuniv

Chellaney, Brahma.  Climate Change and Security in Southern Asia:  Understanding the National Security Implications.  RUSI Journal 152:62-67+ April 2007.
Also available online at:  http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=1278393461&sid=3&Fmt=3&clientId=417&RQT=309&VName=PQD

Cowan, Ian B.  Security Implications of Global Climate Changes.  Canadian Defence Quarterly 19:43-49 Autumn 1989.

Dalby, Simon.  Ecology, Security, and Change in the Anthropocene.  Brown Journal of World Affairs 13:155-164 Spring-Summer 2007.
The author believes that the latest innovations in earth system science have added arguments for the integration of environmental matters into security policy.  He states that concerns about scarcity in the global South and battles over resources are now being overtaken by worries about global climate change and the openness of populations to ecological disruptions.
Also available online at:  http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=aph&AN=25431108&site=ehost-live&custid=airuniv

Easterbrook, Gregg.  Global Warming:  Who Loses -- And Who Wins?  Atlantic Monthly 299:52-53+ April 2007.
Coastal cities inundated, farming regions parched, ocean currents disrupted, tropical diseases spreading, glaciers melting-an artificial greenhouse effect could generate countless tribulations.  If Earth's climate changes meaningfully -- and the National Academy of Sciences, previously skeptical, said in 2005 that signs of climate change have become significant -- there could be broad-based disruption of the global economy unparalleled by any event other than World War II.

Faris, Stephan.  The Real Roots of Darfur.  Atlantic Monthly 299:67-69 April 2007.
"Climate change is likely to cause tension all over the world," says Idean Salehyan, a political scientist at the University of North Texas.  Whether or not it sparks conflict, he says, depends on the strength, goodwill, and competence of local and national governments.
Also available online at:  http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=1256751001&sid=2&Fmt=3&clientId=417&RQT=309&VName=PQD

Farrell, Lawrence P. Jr.  National Security and Energy Inextricably Linked.  National Defense 91:6 July 2007.
Offers perspectives regarding the communal aspects of climate change, national defense and energy dependence, and argues that these are a related set of global challenges that affect the military's ability to perform sound routine maintenance and regular exercises.
Also available online at:  http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=tsh&AN=27248886&site=ehost-live&custid=airuniv

Gleditsch, Nils Petter.  Armed Conflict and the Environment:  A Critique of the Literature.  Journal of Peace Research 35:381-400 May 1998.
Also available online at:  http://www.jstor.org/stable/424942

Goodman, Sherri W. and Kern, Paul J.  Bad Tidings.  National Interest No. 93:31-33 January-February 2008 .
Discusses the threat to global and U.S. national security posed by climate change, and the role of water scarcity in conflicts such as those in Darfur and Rwanda.
Also available online at:  http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=aph&AN=28603477&site=ehost-live&custid=airuniv

Harrison, Stephan.  Climate Change, Future Conflict and the Role of Climate Science.  RUSI Journal 150:18-23 December 2005.
Also available online at:  http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=956724641&sid=4&Fmt=4&clientId=417&RQT=309&VName=PQD

Homer-Dixon, Thomas.  Terror in the Weather Forecast.  New York Times, p A27, April 24, 2007.
Argues that climate change represents a challenge to international security, as dangerous as the arms race between the U.S. and the Soviet Union during the cold war or the proliferation of nuclear weapons.
Also available online at:  http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=1259270031&sid=1&Fmt=3&clientId=417&RQT=309&VName=PQD

Klare, Michael T.  Global Warming Battlefields:  How Climate Change Threatens Security.  Current History 106:355-361 November 2007.
Discusses the effect of global warming on international security.  Author states that global warming may endanger world food supply, which may lead to mass starvation and other humanitarian crises such as war.  He presents a history of conflict over natural resources such as gold and oil.
Also available online at:  http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=aph&AN=27300337&site=ehost-live&custid=airuniv

Knickerbocker, Brad.  Could Global Warming Cause War?  Christian Science Monitor, p 2, April 19, 2007.
Also available online at:  http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=1256568491&sid=3&Fmt=3&clientId=417&RQT=309&VName=PQD

Knickerbocker, Brad.  Reports Link Climate Change to World Security.  Christian Science Monitor, p 17, March 13, 2008.
Also available online at:  http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=aph&AN=31313574&site=ehost-live&custid=airuniv

Kriz, Margaret.  The Hot New Security Problem.  National Journal 39:61-62 November 3, 2007.
Global warming should be viewed as a serious threat to America's national security because of the likelihood that it will trigger massive population shifts around the world, render drinking water much scarcer, and breed political instability, according to a report by a team of foreign-policy and climate-change experts.
Also available online at:  http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=1382593501&sid=3&Fmt=3&clientId=417&RQT=309&VName=PQD

Magnuson, Stew and Wagner, Breanne.  Climate Change Will Result in Societal Upheavals, Think Tanks Warn.  National Defense 92:14 January 2008.
A changing climate will have profound impacts on U.S. national security as droughts, floods, famines and epidemics create instability throughout the world, according to a joint report released by the Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Center for a New American Security, titled "The Age of Consequences:  The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global Climate Change."
Also available online at:  http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=1431684431&sid=1&Fmt=3&clientId=417&RQT=309&VName=PQD

Maybee, Sean C.  National Security and Global Climate Change.  Joint Force Quarterly No. 49:98-102 Spring 2008.
Also available at:  http://www.ndu.edu/inss/Press/jfq_pages/editions/i49/26.pdf
Also available online at:  http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=aph&AN=31425535&site=ehost-live&custid=airuniv

McMichael, William H.  Global Warming Security Threat Called "Serious."  Navy Times 56:32 April 30, 2007.
A report issued by an advisory board of 11 retired flag officers described climate change as a serious national security threat.
Also available online at:  http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=f5h&AN=25014547&site=ehost-live&custid=airuniv

Morring Jr., Frank.  Threat Multiplier.  Aviation Week & Space Technology 166:30 April 23, 2007.
Highlights of the study conducted by the Military Advisory Board of CNA Corp., which investigated the link between climate change and U.S. national security.  The board concluded that local environmental effects of global climate change will pose serious security threats in the years ahead, as fragile nations that collapse under shortages of food, water and usable land become lawless areas potentially breeding terrorism and other military threats.
Also available online at:  http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=aph&AN=25540934&site=ehost-live&custid=airuniv

Parry, Emyr Jones.  The Greatest Threat to Global Security.  United Nations Chronicle 44:20-21 June 2007.
Climate change is transforming the way we think about security. "This will not be the first time people have fought over land, water and resources, but this time it will be on a scale that dwarfs the conflicts of the past", said the Congolese representative at the UN Security Council debate in April 2007.
Also available online at:  http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=1346576161&sid=3&Fmt=3&clientId=417&RQT=309&VName=PQD

The Pentagon and Climate Change.  Monthly Review:  An Independent Socialist Magazine 56:1-13 May 2004.
Discusses issues concerning the October 2003 report of the U.S. Department of Defense, "An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and its Implications for United States National Security."
Also available online at:  http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=aph&AN=12844633&site=ehost-live&custid=airuniv

Podesta, John and Ogden, Peter.  The Security Implications of Climate Change.  Washington Quarterly 31:115-138 Winter 2007-2008.
Also available online at:  http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=aph&AN=27574953&site=ehost-live&custid=airuniv

Salehyan, Idean.  From Climate Change to Conflict?  No Consensus Yet.  Journal of Peace Research 45:315-326 May 2008.
Many have argued that climate change will lead to resource competition, mass migration, and, ultimately, an increase in armed conflict around the world.  This article takes issue with the `deterministic' view that climate change and resultant resource scarcities will have a direct impact on political violence.  Rather, the effect of climate change on armed conflict is contingent on a number of political and social variables, which, if ignored by analysts, can lead to poor predictions about when and where conflict is likely.
Also available online at:  http://jpr.sagepub.com/cgi/reprint/45/3/315

Seddon, David.  Insecure Environment:  International Implications of Climate Change.  Jane's Intelligence Review 19:6-13 May 2007.
Argues that weather changes pose a threat to global security.  Mass migration and conflict may arise because of flooding, drought and extreme weather phenomena.

Smith, Paul J.  Climate Change, Mass Migration and the Military Response.  Orbis 51:617-633 September 2007.
The displacement of thousands of U.S. Gulf Coast residents after Hurricane Katrina is emblematic of a human migration challenge that will likely become more severe in the years ahead.  The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that climate change will manifest in dramatic ways--extreme weather events, droughts, heat waves, increased cyclone (hurricane, typhoon) activity, sea level rise, etc.--and some of these effects may induce large scale human migration, both within and among countries.  Some countries are describing migration--particularly unauthorized international migration--as a "security threat" and are turning to military forces to deter or manage the human flows.
Also available online at:  http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=aph&AN=26584855&site=ehost-live&custid=airuniv

Smith, Paul J.  Climate Change, Weak States and the "War on Terrorism" in South and Southeast Asia.  Contemporary Southeast Asia 29:264-285 August 2007.
Since January 2002, the US has grounded its counter-terrorism policies within a diplomatic framework of well-governed states that have the capacity and willingness to cooperate.  Climate change threatens to undermine this objective.  Several countries with which the United States hopes to forge long-term counter-terrorism alliances are in areas that may be strongly affected by climate change. In these countries, increased poverty and reduced state capacity, a foreseeable outcome of predicted climate change events, contribute to the creation or sustenance of functional space which may allow terrorist groups to flourish.
Also available online at:  http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=aph&AN=26803953&site=ehost-live&custid=airuniv

Stern, Todd and Antholis, William.  A Changing Climate:  The Road Ahead for the United States.  Washington Quarterly 31:175-188 Winter 2007-2008.
Global warming has arrived at center stage, not only as an environmental issue but also increasingly as a major concern of economics and national security.  Authors assert that the next US president has a pivotal opportunity to take bold, broad action on climate change.  While implementing a serious program at home, the president should pursue a layered diplomacy centered on a core group of major emitters, especially China, and in the UN.

Sweet, William.  Clashing Climate Catastrophists.  IEEE Spectrum 41:20+ May 2004.
Argues that the scenarios described in "An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security" are inaccurate as to both timing and severity.

Tirpak, John A.  The War of Global Warming?  Air Force Magazine 90:13 June 2007.
A group of former top generals and admirals have warned that the U.S. defense community should start planning for security problems likely to result from global warming.  The group's findings were included into a report, "National Security and the Threat of Climate Change", the first major statements on the effects of climate change by military professionals from all the services.
Also available online at:  http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=mth&AN=25611539&site=ehost-live&custid=airuniv

White, Kathleen D. and Vaddey, Seshu.  Climate Dynamics (global warming trends).  Military Engineer 99:59-60 July-August 2007.


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