Air University Library Publications

WARGAMING



Lanchester Theory & Equations

CONTENTS


BOOKS


Alliance Security: NATO and the No-First-Use Question. John D. Steinbruner and Leon V. Sigal, editors. Washington, Brookings Institution, 1983. 222 p.
The Arithmetic of Force Planning, by William W. Kaufmann, pp 208-216. Lanchester's equations used in a model of the NATO-Warsaw Pact balance by defense analyst Wm. Kaufmann.
Book call no.: 355.031091821 A436

Dupuy, Trevor N. (Col, USA, Ret). Numbers, Predictions and War: The Use of History To Evaluate and Predict the Outcome of Armed Conflict. Revised Edition. Fairfax, VA, Hero Books, 1985. 256 p.
The QJM (Quantified Judgement Method) and Lanchester's Equations, pp 148-150.
Book call no.: 355 D945n 1985

Epstein, Joshua M. The Calculus of Conventional War; Dynamic Analysis Without Lanchester Theory. Washington, Brookings Institution, 1985. 31 p. (Studies in Defense Policy)
"In this study, Joshua Epstein contends that Lanchester's equations fail to capture warfare's basic dynamics and present a fundamentally misleading picture of war. He then presents new, alternative equations of his own. These, he contends, more accurately represent the core dynamics to which Lanchester theory is oblivious." From the Foreword by Bruce K. McLaury.
Book call no.: 355.0332 E64c

Epstein, Joshua M. Strategy and Force Planning: The Case of the Persian Gulf. Washington, Brookings Institution, 1987. 169 p.
Appendix E: Critique of Lanchester Theory, pp146-155.
Book call no.: 355.0330536 E64s

International Conference on Operational Research (8th, Toronto Canada, Jun 19-23, 1978). Operational Research '78 Proceedings of the Eighth IFORS International Conference on Operational Research. Edited by K.B. Haley. Amsterdam, North-Holland Pub Co, 1979. 1114 p.
Recent Developments in the Lanchester Theory of Combat, by James G. Taylor, pp 773-806. References, pp 803-806.
Book call no.: 658.072 I61p vol.8 1978

Lanchester, F. W. Aircraft in Warfare: The Dawn of the Fourth Arm. London, Constable and Co, Ltd, 1916. 222 p.
Chapter V: The Principle of Concentration; The Value of Numerical Strength; The N-Square Law. Chapter VI: The Principle of Concentration--(Continued); The N-Square Law in Its Application; Applications of the N-Square Law in Naval Warfare; British Naval Tactics in 1805; Nelson's Tactical Scheme--The N-Square Law at Trafalgar.
Book call no.: 629.13 L22

Mathematics of Conflict, edited by Martin Shubik. New York, North-Holand, 1983. 186 p. (North-Holland Systems and Control Series, Volume 6)
Lanchester Attrition Processes and Theater-Level Combat Models, by Alan F. Karr, pp 89-126 (References, pp 123-126).
Book call no.: 355.020151 M426

Morse, Philip M. and Kimball, George E. Methods of Operations Research. First Edition Revised. New York, Published jointly by the Technology Press of MIT and John Wiley & Sons, 1951. 158 p.
Lanchester's Equations, pp 63-77. "The most influential postwar operations research statement of the Lanchester equations"...statement by John W.R. Lepingwell, in International Security, Summer '87, p 89.
Book call no.: 507.2 M886m

Systems Analysis and Modeling in Defense: Development, Trends, and Issues, edited by Reiner K. Huber. New York, Plenum Press, 1984. 913 p.
Based on a NATO Defense Research Group symposium on Modeling and Analysis of Defense Processes, held July 27-29, 1982, in Brussels, Belgium. Extensions to Lanchester Theory of Combat, by P.J. Haysman and K. Wand, pp 577-585.
Book call no.: 355.480151 S995

Taylor, James G. Force-on-Force Attrition Modelling. Arlington, VA, Operations Research Society of America, Military Applications Section, 1980. 160 p.
Appendix A: Annotated Short Bibliography on Lanchester-Type Combat Models, pp 133-145. Appendix B: Comprehensive Bibliography on the Lanchester Theory of Combat, pp 146-160.
Book call no.: 355.4072 T243f

Taylor, James G. Lanchester Models of Warfare. Arlington, VA, Operations Research Society of America, Military Applications Section, 1983. 2 vols.
Book call no.: 355.00151 T243L

The World of Mathematics: Volume Four A Small Library of the Literature of Mathematics from A'h-mose the Scribe to Albert Einstein, presented with Commentaries and Notes by James R. Newman. New York, Simon and Schuster, 1956. pp 2027-2535.
Mathematics in Warfare: The Principle of Concentration; The "N-Square" Law, by Frederick William Lanchester, pp 2138-2157.
Book call no.: 510.82 N552w vol.4

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DOCUMENTS


Latchaw, John H. (Capt, USAF). A Lanchester Model for Air Battles. Wright-Patterson AFB, OH, Feb 1972. 78 p.
Chapter II. Lanchester Theory, pp 4-20. Thesis (M.S.)--Institute of Technology. School of Engineering.
Doc. call no.: M-U 39567-5 L351L AJLanchester Theory & Equations

Rand Corp. Contributions to Lanchester Attrition Theory, by R.N. Snow. Santa Monica, CA, Apr 1948. 33 p. (USAF Project MX-791; RA-15078)
"Lanchester's differential equations and subsequent modifications sought to describe combat attrition of forces composed of a single type of element. RAND's efforts have been directed toward a generalization of Lanchester's equations to include combat between heterogeneous forces. The information deals with the first phase of a number of studies being conducted by RAND on general attrition theory."
Doc. call no.: M-U 30352 no.15078

Technical Operations, Inc. Combat Operations Research Group. Historical Data and Lanchester's Theory of Combat. Fort Belvoir, VA, Aug 1964. 132 p.
Doc. call no.: M-U 39223-21 no.190

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PERIODICALS


 

Bach, Ralph E., Jr., Dolansky, Ladislav, and Stubbs, Harold L. Some Recent Contributions to the Lanchester Theory of Combat. Operations Research 10:314-326 May-Jun '62.
References, p 326.

Deitchman, S. J. A Lanchester Model of Guerrilla Warfare. Operations Research 10:818-827 Nov-Dec '62.
References, p 827.

Dolansky, Ladislav. Present State of the Lanchester Theory of Combat. Operations Research 12:344-358 Mar-Apr '64.
Bibliography, pp 356-358

Dupuy, T. N. (Col, USA, Ret). Can We Rely Upon Computer Combat Simulations? Armed Forces Journal International 125:58+ Aug '87.
"...the weight of the data from 601 battles since 1600 strongly suggests that there is no direct relationship between strength ratios and either advance or attrition rates. It is clear that increasing the strength of the stronger force in a battle is not likely to increase either its attrition-causing capability, or its rate of advance. What is the effect of this on the famous Lanchester equations which provide the theoretical basis for the attrition methodologies of most of the models in current use? ...my evidence merely shows that the Lanchester equations are not being used properly in a fashion that Frederick W. Lanchester would approve in these models."

Engel, J. H. A Verification of Lanchester's Law. Operations Research Society of America Journal 2:163-171 May '54.
"The validity of Lanchester's equations is demonstrated in an actual combat situation where U.S. forces captured the island of Iwo Jima."

Fain, Janice B. The Lanchester Equations and Historical Warfare: An Analysis of Sixty World War II Land Engagements. History, Numbers, and War 1:34-52 Spring '77.
Notes, pp 43-44.

Helmbold, Robert L. A Modification of Lanchester's Equations. Operations Research 13:857-859 Sep-Oct '65.

Homer-Dixon, Thomas F. A Common Misapplication of the Lanchester Square Law: A Research Note. International Security 12:135-139 Summer '87.

Kupchan, Charles A. Setting Conventional Force Requirements: Roughly Right or Precisely Wrong? World Politics 41:536-578 Jul '89.
Essay review on the books, "Strategy and Force Planning: The Case of the Persian Gulf," by Joshua Eqstein, and "Conventional Forces and American Defense Policy," edited by Steven Miller. The Lanchester family of equations discussed, p539; pp555-557.

The Lanchester Equations: Lanchester's Original Article with a Commentary by Trevor N. Dupuy. History, Numbers, and War 1:142-150 Fall '77.
Commentary: History and the Validity of the Lanchester Hypotheses, by Trevor N. Dupuy, pp 146-150.

Lepingwell, John W. R. Lanchester Revived? A Critique of Lanchester Modeling in U.S. Army Guard and Reserve: Rhetoric, Realities, Risks. Defense Analysis 6:399-404 Dec '90.

Lepingwell, John W R. The Laws of Combat? Lanchester Reexamined. International Security 12:89-134 Summer '87.
Appendix: Solutions for the Lanchester equations, pp 128-134. Excellent notes throughout the article.

Tankins, Edwin S. (Maj, USAR). War Gaming. Military Review 47:88-96 '67.
A general description of war gaming including brief explanations of the Lanchester Model and model equations.

Taylor, James G. Lanchester-Type Models of Warfare and Optimal Control. Naval Research Logistics Quarterly 21:79-106 Mar '74.
References, pp 104-106.

Taylor, James G. On the Relationship Between the Force Ratio and the Instantaneous Casualty-Exchange Ratio for Some Lanchester-Type Models of Warfare. Naval Research Logistics Quarterly 23:345-352 Jun '76.
References, p 352.

Taylor, James G. Optimal Commitment of Forces in Some Lanchester-Type Combat Models. Operations Research 27:96-114 Jan-Feb '79.
References, pp 113-114.

Taylor, James G. Solving Lanchester-Type Equations for 'Modern Warfare' with Variable Coefficients. Operations Research 22:756-770 Jul-Aug '74.
References, pp 769-770.

Taylor, James G. and Brown, Gerald G. Annihilation Prediction for Lanchester-Type Models of Modern Warfare. Operations Research 31:752-771 Jul-Aug '83.
References, pp 769-771.

Taylor, James G. and Comstock, Craig. Force-Annihilation Conditions for Variable-Coefficient Lanchester-Type Equations of Modern Warfare. Naval Research Logistics Quarterly 24:349-371 Jun '77.
References, pp 370-371.

Taylor, James G. and Parry, Samuel H. Force-Ratio Considerations for Some Lanchester-Type Models of Warfare. Operations Research 23:522-533 May-Jun '75.
References, pp 532-533


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VERTICAL FILE


Weiss, Herbert K. Lanchester-Type Models of Warfare, in Proceedings of the First International Conference on Operational Research, Oxford 1957. Baltimore, MD, Operations Research Society of America, Dec 1957, pp 82-99.: Located in Vertical File under subject heading: Wargaming.

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