Quotes
What information consumes is rather obvious: it consumes the attention of its recipients. Hence a wealth of information creates a poverty of attention, and a need to allocate that attention efficiently among the overabundance of information sources that might consume it.
— Herbert Simon
The nation that makes a great distinction between its scholars and its warriors will have its thinking done by cowards and its fighting done by fools.
— Thucydides
Fantasy, abandoned by reason, produces impossible monsters; united with it, she is the mother of the arts and the origin of marvels.
— Goya
When a task cannot be partitioned because of sequential constraints, the application of more effort has no effect on the schedule. The bearing of a child takes nine months, no matter how many women are assigned.
— Frederick P. Brooks, Jr., The Mythical Man-Month
Some ideas are so stupid that only intellectuals could believe them.
— George Orwell
Intelligence is like a four-wheel drive. It allows you to get stuck in more remote places.
— Garrison Keillor
Do one thing every day that scares you.
— Eleanor Roosevelt
My ability to keep cool in a crisis is based entirely on not knowing all the facts.
— Garrison Keillor
The one common experience of all humanity is the challenge of problems.
— R. Buckminster Fuller
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant.
We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
— Albert Einstein
Integrity without knowledge is weak and useless, and knowledge without integrity is dangerous and dreadful.
— Samuel Johnson
Knowledge is of two kinds. We know a subject ourselves, or we know where we can find information upon it.
— Samuel Johnson
Iron rusts from disuse,
stagnant water loses its purity and in cold weather becomes frozen;
so does inaction sap the vigors of the mind.
— Leonardo da Vinci
Thinking is the hardest work there is, which is the probable reason why so few engage in it.
— Henry Ford
In the field of observation, chance favors the prepared mind.
— Louis Pasteur
We shall not cease from exploration, and the end of all our exploring will be to arrive where we started and know the place for the first time.
— T. S. Eliot
The other terror that scares us from self-trust is our consistency; a reverence for our past act or word, because the eyes of others have no other data for computing our orbit than our past acts, and we are loath to disappoint them.
...
A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen and philosophers and divines. With consistency a great soul has simply nothing to do. He may as well concern himself with his shadow on the wall. Speak what you think now in hard words, and to-morrow speak what to-morrow thinks in hard words again, though it contradict every thing you said to-day. — 'Ah, so you shall be sure to be misunderstood.' — Is it so bad, then, to be misunderstood? Pythagoras was misunderstood, and Socrates, and Jesus, and Luther, and Copernicus, and Galileo, and Newton, and every pure and wise spirit that ever took flesh. To be great is to be misunderstood.
— Ralph Waldo Emerson, in his essay “Self-Reliance”
Overall/General Resources
- How We Think: Thinking Critically and Creatively and How Military Professionals Can Do it Better, by McConnell et al, in Small Wars Journal, 16 Sep 2011
- This essay will summarize how cognitive theorists have described critical and creative thinking in general, and how some military practitioners have applied them. In doing so, this essay will propose principles of critical and creative thinking applicable to the military profession to provide a common vocabulary that describes the type of thinking we do. To expand and improve critical and creative thinking, military professionals need a common vocabulary that accurately describes the very thinking we are to expand and improve on.
Fit to Think: Conceptual, Critical, and Creative Thinking, briefing by Grant Hammond, Air War College
- UFMCS Red Team Handbook, Apr 2011 (local copy)
- Each section can almost stand alone, and Section XI – Structured Analytic Techniques – has a large variety of tools/techniques for overcoming “mind-sets” – including “9 Step Cultural Methodology” and “String of Pearls” tool and “Analysis of Competing Hypotheses” and a passel of others.
- Action Learning Guide (local copy), from Presidential Management Fellows (PMF), posted by OPM - check especially the appendices for items/tools such as inference ladder, four frames, conflict management, stakeholder mapping, force field analysis, and more
- Mind Tools, a GOOD site for quick pass at a whole slew of stuff -- problem solving, analysis, memory improvement, creativity, stress management, time management, planning skills, comm skills, improved reading skills, & shareware tools
- Peirce, Pragmatism, and The Right Way of Thinking (local copy), by Campbell, Sandia National Labs, Aug 2011
- Peirce is known as the founder of the philosophy of pragmatism and these lectures, given near the end of his life, represent his mature thoughts on the philosophy. Peirce’s decomposition of thinking into abduction, deduction, and induction is among the important points in the lectures.
- How We Think, 1910, by John Dewey
- "Knowing" - self, enemy, situation - the Art of War 2000 (local copy) - a quick, easy read from Navy CIO with topics such as types of cognitive capabilities, and knowing yourself as an agent of change
- Learning Organization Doctrine: Roadmap for Transformation (local copy), US Army Corps of Engineers - definitions, models, outcomes, etc.
Strategic Thinking
Not everything that can be counted counts,
and not everything that counts can be counted.
— Albert Einstein
Nine-tenths of tactics are certain and taught in the books; but, the irrational tenth is like the kingfisher flashing across the pool. This is the test of generals. Success can only be ensured by instinct sharpened by thought. At the crisis, it is as natural as a reflex.
— T. E. Lawrence, in The Science of Guerilla Warfare
The nation that makes a great distinction between its scholars and its warriors will have its thinking done by cowards and its fighting done by fools.
— Thucydides
- See also critical thinking
- See also strategic art
- See also military theory page
- See also strategic communication page at the Cyberspace & Information Operations Study Center
- See also DoD and service leadership competency models at Strategic Leadership Studies for competencies to be addressed by military education
- See also the strategic corporal and the three-block war regarding the need for strategic thinking at all levels in today's and tomorrow's conflicts
- The lines separating the levels of war, and distinguishing combatant from "non-combatant," will blur, and adversaries, confounded by our "conventional" superiority, will resort to asymmetrical means to redress the imbalance. Further complicating the situation will be the ubiquitous media whose presence will mean that all future conflicts will be acted out before an international audience. [Krulak]
- The perils of bad strategy, by Rumelt, in the McKinsey Quarterly, (2011, 1)
- Another sign of bad strategy is fuzzy strategic objectives. One form this problem can take is a scrambled mess of things to accomplish—a dog’s dinner of goals. A long list of things to do, often mislabeled as strategies or objectives, is not a strategy. It is just a list of things to do. Such lists usually grow out of planning meetings in which a wide variety of stakeholders suggest things they would like to see accomplished. Rather than focus on a few important items, the group sweeps the whole day’s collection into the strategic plan. Then, in recognition that it is a dog’s dinner, the label “long term” is added, implying that none of these things need be done today.
- Bad strategy has many roots, but I’ll focus on two here: the inability to choose and template-style planning—filling in the blanks with “vision, mission, values, strategies.”
- Developing Air Force Strategists: Change Culture, Reverse Careerism (local copy), by Bethel et al, Joint Force Quarterly, 3rd Quarter 2010
- The Air Force should seek out those officers who have a balanced brain—those who can not only intuit well and rapidly, but who also understand when it may be necessary to look for theories that can be generalized. Instead, the Service teaches “people, processes, and products” that make up the Air Operations Center at its command and staff college.
- There is no career path for strategists or strategic thinkers, and indeed there appears to be a trend away from intellectualism.
- Rather than disdaining intellectualism, senior leaders should be encouraged to read recent scholarship on strategic decisionmaking and ask themselves if they can learn something there. In addition to the long list of histories of command and leadership, Air Force senior leaders should have to read Scott Page’s The Difference, Malcolm Gladwell’s Blink and Outliers, James Surowiecki’s The Wisdom of Crowds, and most importantly, Alec Fisher’s The Logic of Real Arguments.
- Inductive reasoning is only one attribute of successful strategists. They must also exhibit:
- creativity
- curiosity
- confidence
- high intelligence without subject fixation
- ability to collate and make sense out of massive amounts of data
- great and diverse intellect
- thorough knowledge of the means
- intuitive understanding of the ends.
- We place creativity at the top because crafting strategies, like war itself, is an art. We posit that educating an officer to be a strategist is for naught if the first four traits are not present.
- We must demand more of our officers—not in terms of time or energy (most give more than their fair share whether they have it or not), but in terms of how they think.
- Growing Strategic Leaders for Future Conflict, by Salmoni et al, Parameters, Spring 2010
- Schools for Strategy: Teaching Strategy for 21st Century Conflict (local copy), by Gray, SSI, Nov 2009
- Research, Writing, and the Mind of the Strategist (local copy), by Foster, in Joint Force Quarterly, Spring 1996
- Ideas and the ability to generate them seem increasingly likely, in fact, to be more important than weapons, economic potential, diplomatic acumen, or technological advantage in determining who exercises global leadership and enjoys superpower status. Thus it is imperative to develop, nurture, and engage strategic thinkers at all levels—critical, creative, broadgauged visionaries with the intellect to dissect the status quo, grasp the big picture, discern important relationships among events, generate imaginative possibilities for action, and operate easily in the conceptual realm.
- Almost by definition, strategic thinkers are broadly educated, not narrowly trained. They seek not simply direction but to grapple with the underlying questions of whether, why, and what if.
- A broad-based education expands—and fuels the self-guided growth of—one’s horizons. It develops the intellect and inculcates the spirit of inquiry for a lifelong pursuit of learning.
The measure of education, far from being the level or even the sum of formal schooling, rests more in the degree of open-mindedness and active mental engagement it engenders.
- Keeping the Strategic Flame (local copy), by Builder, in Joint Force Quarterly, Winter 1996-97
- The current demand by the military for welldefined objectives is eloquent evidence of how far our thinking has drifted toward the tactical domain. The insistence on operationally planning based on enemy capabilities, while tactically prudent, is the antithesis of strategic thinking, which should concentrate on enemy vulnerabilities. Although defeating enemy forces may sometimes be necessary to achieve our objectives, it is not always the Nation’s or the military’s best option.
- Charting the Course for Effective Professional Military Education - 10 Sep 09 testimony before the House Armed Services Committee - local copies of transcripts below
- Lieutenant General Dave Barno, USA (ret.) - Director, Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies
- Given the notable shortcomings many ascribe to U.S. strategic thinking over the last decade -- some deeply involving senior military leaders -- we must seriously question whether our program of PME today is on the right track. In my estimation, we are drifting off course, and if uncorrected, our marked advantage in the intellectual capital of warfare, in the face of an increasingly uncertain future, is at risk.
- Thus, for almost all senior officers -- all our generals and admirals -- the final fifteen to twenty years of their career is almost entirely largely lacking in extended developmental experiences. This fact becomes more troubling when correlated with the reality that decision-making and complexity at the senior levels -- especially regarding strategic and grand strategic issues -- is immensely more complex and uncertain than the relatively simpler worlds of tactics and operations. So-called "wicked problems" unresponsive to set-piece solutions abound.
- Dr. Williamson Murray - Senior Fellow, Institute for Defense Analyses
- The cost of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan suggests that the United States can no longer afford an approach resting on the comfortable assumption that commanders can acquire skills on the fly to deal with the new and different complexities that each conflict will bring in its wake. As General James Mattis suggested in an email to a professor at National War College, “We have been fighting on this planet for 5,000 years and we should take advantage of that experience. ‘Winging it’ and filling body bags as we sort out what works reminds us of the moral dictates and the cost of competence in our profession.” The depressing story of our flawed efforts to handle a burgeoning insurgency during the post-invasion period in Iraq suggests that too many senior officers had never studied the lessons of Vietnam, much less the experiences of the British in their efforts to defeat the 1920 insurgency in Iraq.
- Dr. John Allen Williams - President, Inter-University Seminar on the Armed Forces and Society
- Given the complexity of the future threat environment and the importance of the issues involved – military threats and the proper relation between the military and the society it serves –the Skelton Report’s call for the development of strategists and the encouragement of strategic thinking is increasingly relevant. One should note that these are not quite the same thing. Only a small number of officers will develop into strategists of the first rank, but these are so important that the PME system must do as much as it can to encourage them to develop their talents to the maximum degree possible.
- Developing Strategic Leaders for the 21st Century (local copy), by McCausland, SSI, Feb 2008
- Strategy and the Strategic Way of Thinking (local copy), commentary by Owens, Naval War College Review, Autumn 2007
- Educating for Strategic Thinking in the SOF Community: Considerations and a Proposal (local copy), by Yarger, JSOU Report 07-2, Jan 2007
- Prospects for Strategic Thinking and Innovation: a Survey of War College Students (local copy), by Snow, Army War College, 15 Mar 2006
- The survey reveals room for improvement in current levels of dialogue, critical, innovative and strategic thinking. Unless changed, the current time and resource constraints will likely frustrate deep thinkers, stifle the creative and hinder the process of organizational learning and adaptation. The goal of achieving advantage through transformational processes is at risk.
- Learning from the Stones: a Go Approach to Mastering China's Strategic Concept, Shi (local copy), by Lai, Strategic Studies Institute, May 2004
- The author introduces a new approach to learning about the different ways of strategic thinking and interaction in Chinese culture. It is through learning the Chinese board game called go. This game is a living reflection of Chinese philosophy, culture, strategic thinking, warfare, military tactics, and diplomatic bargaining. The author also sheds light on the remarkable connection between go and the strategic concepts in Sun Tzu’s Art of War.
- A modest claim is made in this writing that a little knowledge of go will take U.S. leaders a long way in understanding the essence of the Chinese way of war and diplomacy.
- Strategic Thinking chapter from Strategic Leadership and Decision Making, from National Defense University
- A leader can develop more effective strategic thinking skills. This is done by exploiting any opportunity to better understand yourself, how you think about complex problems, and how to go about making decisions. This understanding of yourself is critical, since this information that forms the foundation for developing your strategic thinking capabilities necessary in the strategic environment. The more you understand yourself, the more control you have over both the process, and the products you produce.
- Virtually all of you will be required to serve in strategic environments. This means there will be many opportunities for you to function as a strategic thinker or advisor. You must, therefore, continue to develop a new and broader set of thinking skills. The SLDM course, and the overall ICAF experience have been designed to help you understand and develop effective strategic thinking skills to solve the complex, fast changing, unstructured problems you will soon encounter.
- Attack by Stratagem, from The Art of War, by Sun Tzu
- Hence to fight and conquer in all your battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting.
- Hence the saying: If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.
Creativity and Innovation
Reasonable people adapt themselves to the world.
Unreasonable people attempt to adapt the world to themselves.
All progress, therefore, depends on unreasonable people.
— George Bernhard Shaw
If the world were perfect, it wouldn’t be.
— Yogi Berra
A good hockey player plays where the puck is.
A great hockey player plays where the puck is going to be.
— Wayne Gretzky
Creativity is thinking up new things. Innovation is doing new things.
— Theodore Levitt
The only thing harder than getting a new idea into the military is getting an old one out.
— Liddell Hart
Anxiety is the hand maiden of creativity.
— T. S. Eliot
The foolish and the dead alone never change their opinions.
— James Russel Lowell
As the births of living creatures, at first, are ill-shapen: so are all Innovations, which are the births of time.
— Francis Bacon
He that will not apply new remedies must expect new evils; for time is the greatest innovator.
— Francis Bacon
In times of change, learners inherit the earth, while the learned find themselves equipped to deal with a world that no longer exists.
— Eric Hoffer
The world owes all of its onward impulses to men ill at ease. The happy man inevitably confines himself within ancient limits.
— Nathaniel Hawthorne
I want to stay as close to the edge as I can without going over. Out on the edge you see all kinds of things you can't see from the center.
— Kurt Vonnegut, Jr.
In the age of information sciences, the most valuable asset is knowledge, which is a creation of human imagination and creativity. We were among the last to comprehend this truth and we will be paying for this oversight for many years to come.
— Mikhail Gorbachev, 1990
Innovation by definition will not be accepted at first. It takes repeated attempts, endless demonstrations, monotonous rehearsals before innovation can be accepted and internalized by an organization. This requires 'courageous patience'.
— Warren Bennis
- See John Boyd and the OODA loop - especially the articles and briefings by Osinga
- See also intuition
- See also Creative Problem-Solving (CPS) process
- See also Innovation Adoption-Diffusion on Transformation of War page
- See also Innovation Adoption-Diffusion on Future Studies page
- The Innovation Paradox (local copy), by Hoffman, in NASA's ASK magazine, issue 41, Winter 2011 - "Sometimes organizational 'support' kills good new ideas."
- Many organizations live and die by good new ideas. The challenge they face is to cultivate good ideas by giving innovators just the right blend of freedom and support. One simple approach that is not taken often enough is to let the innovators themselves decide how the organization can help them develop their ideas. A manager asking, “What do
you need from me?” has a good chance of finding the sweet spot between no support (“Do what you want as long as I don’t know about it”) and idea-killing interference.
- Expecting the Unexpected (local copy), by Frasqueri-Molina, in NASA's ASK magazine, issue 43, Summer 2011 - creating a mitigation plan to deal with unexpected risks
- The author developed a risk-mitigation plan to reestablish order from chaos.
- Remain calm.
- Halt the entire project or just the affected work momentarily and let everyone take a break.
- Immediately gather the resolution team, which consists of the project manager and any of the people who can offer solutions; meet privately.
- Assess risk impact.
- Brainstorm solutions.
- Choose a solution.
- Obtain project sponsor approval.
- Communicate the solution to the entire team, resume project, resolve risk.
- Why Wikis at NASA? (local copy), by Verville et al, in NASA's ASK magazine, issue 44, Fall 2011
- Wikis are used across NASA for collaboration
- Some of the critical practices and principles for successful wikis are listed below.
- Wikis work best when they solve a problem that is evident to most of a group.
- Wiki use needs to replace an existing work process, not add to work.
- Wikis need advocates and advertising.
- Seeding the wiki with valuable content helps jump-start the process; with a blank page, no one knows where to start.
- Gradual growth is fine, and starting small helps a core group of users become accustomed to the wiki (think pilot study).
- A wiki that serves a niche need is okay; it does not need to be all things to all people.
- Defense Science Board (DSB) - check reports section for reports like the following
- Enhancing Adaptibility of Our Military Forces
- Innovation Versus Adaptability: Seizing the Initiative Through Creative Thinking Versus Reacting to the Enemy (local copy), by Grothe, SAMS paper, 2009
- Leadership must be committed to learning, underwrite experimentation, and create an environment that generates creative thought and innovation. Doctrine must incorporate more aspects of innovation, creative and critical thinking and innovative leadership. The Army’s training constructs produce adaptive leaders, but must start to assess innovation as well, in order to generate this within the force as well. The most critical area the Army must focus change in is within Professional Military Education for field grade officers.
- Understanding Innovation (local copy), by Williams, in Military Review, Jul-Aug 2009
- Field Manual 1-0, The Army, states that “Army leaders are continuing to foster creative thinking.” They are “challenging inflexible ways of thinking, removing impediments to institutional innovation, and underwriting the risks associated with bold change.”
- Perhaps this statement is true, but given the contemporary use of the word “innovation,” it is also meaningless. Claiming to be innovative carries about as much weight as declaring a love for puppies; it’s easy to say and unpopular to challenge. When words represent some indistinct idea, they are susceptible to reinvention or distortion with potentially significant unintended consequences.
- Innovation Starvation, by Stephenson, in World Policy Journal, Fall 2011
- Still, I worry that our inability to match the achievements of the 1960s space program might be symptomatic of a general failure of our society to get big things done.
- Innovation can’t happen without accepting the risk that it might fail. The vast and radical innovations of the mid-20th century took place in a world that, in retrospect, looks insanely dangerous and unstable.
- Today’s belief in ineluctable certainty is the true innovation-killer of our age. In this environment, the best an audacious manager can do is to develop small improvements to existing systems—climbing the hill, as it were, toward a local maximum, trimming fat, eking out the occasional tiny innovation—like city planners painting bicycle lanes on the streets as a gesture toward solving our energy problems. Any strategy that involves crossing a valley—accepting short-term losses to reach a higher hill in the distance—will soon be brought to a halt by the demands of a system that celebrates short-term gains and tolerates stagnation, but condemns anything else as failure. In short, a world where big stuff can never get done.
- How We Think: Thinking Critically and Creatively and How Military Professionals Can Do it Better, by McConnell et al, in Small Wars Journal, 16 Sep 2011
- This essay will summarize how cognitive theorists have described critical and creative thinking in general, and how some military practitioners have applied them. In doing so, this essay will propose principles of critical and creative thinking applicable to the military profession to provide a common vocabulary that describes the type of thinking we do. To expand and improve critical and creative thinking, military professionals need a common vocabulary that accurately describes the very thinking we are to expand and improve on.
- Creative Thinking for Individuals and Teams: An essay on creative thinking for military professionals, by Allen, U.S. Army War College, 2009
- quick overview (13 pages) of theories, theorists, processes, attributes, and more
- Sir Ken Robinson
- other TED.com videos - most are 6-15 minutes
- Steven Johnson: Where good ideas come from - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked)
- "People often credit their ideas to individual "Eureka!" moments. But Steven Johnson shows how history tells a different story. His fascinating tour takes us from the "liquid networks" of London's coffee houses to Charles Darwin's long, slow hunch to today's high-velocity web." - he finishes with "chance favors the connected mind"
- Edward Tenner: Unintended consequences - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked)
- "Every new invention changes the world -- in ways both intentional and unexpected. Historian Edward Tenner tells stories that illustrate the under-appreciated gap between our ability to innovate and our ability to foresee the consequences."
- Charles Leadbeater on innovation - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked)
- "In this deceptively casual talk, Charles Leadbeater weaves a tight argument that innovation isn't just for professionals anymore. Passionate amateurs, using new tools, are creating products and paradigms that companies can't."
- Clay Shirky on institutions vs. collaboration - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked)
- "In this prescient 2005 talk, Clay Shirky shows how closed groups and companies will give way to looser networks where small contributors have big roles and fluid cooperation replaces rigid planning."
- Howard Rheingold on collaboration - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked)
- "Howard Rheingold talks about the coming world of collaboration, participatory media and collective action -- and how Wikipedia is really an outgrowth of our natural human instinct to work as a group."
- Sunni Brown: Doodlers, unite! - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked)
- "Studies show that sketching and doodling improve our comprehension -- and our creative thinking. So why do we still feel embarrassed when we're caught doodling in a meeting? Sunni Brown says: Doodlers, unite! She makes the case for unlocking your brain via pad and pen."
- 21st Century Enlightenment, RSAnimate talk by Matthew Taylor - how the idea of a new enlightenment can help us meet the challenges we now face
- Office of Innovation - Office of Naval Research
- Innovate or Die: Innovation and Technology for Special Operations (local copy), by Spulak, JSOU Report 10-7, Dec 2010
- CreatingMinds.org - with principles, techniques, tools, etc.
- Creativity Techniques - short descriptions of a whole passel of techniques
- Roots of Innovation (local copy, 2.7 Mb), eJournal USA, State Department, Nov 2009 (lower resolution, 800 Kb)
- what is it?
- which cultures foster it?
- the global geography of innovation
- how do complementary skills help?
- secrets of collaboration
- 2009 innovation index by country ranking
- Developing Creative and Critical Thinkers (local copy), by Allen and Gerras, in Military Review, Nov-Dec 2009
- The Art of Design: a Design Methodology (local copy), by Banach, Military Review, Mar-Apr 2009
- Predicting Military Innovation, by Isaacson et al, RAND, 1999
- Although military technology is increasingly available and affordable, not all states have the capacity to improve military effectiveness by acquiring hardware. Integrative difficulties — in command structures, doctrine and tactics, training, and support — are common in the developing world, and many states will have to find some level of innovation to overcome such difficulties if they are to use military technologies effectively. This annotated briefing documents a research effort aimed at understanding and predicting how militaries may improve their battlefield effectiveness. The briefing first analyzes military innovation conceptually and then formulates a framework for predicting the likelihood of innovative success. The research synthesizes a broad literature on innovation and provides a useful tool for assessing future military developments.
- Brain and Creativity Institute, University of Southern California
- The mission of the Brain and Creativity Institute is to gather new knowledge about the human emotions, decision-making, memory, and communication, from a neurological perspective, and to apply this knowledge to the solution of problems in the biomedical and sociocultural arenas.
- From Stone to Silicon: A Brief Survey of Innovation, by Husick, Foreign Policy Research Institute, Oct 2008 - top 25 innovations of all time
- Toward More Innovative Program Management (local copy), by Perino, in Defense Acquisition Review Journal, Feb-Mar 2005 - results of research into the science and psychology of innovation - using MBTI and FourSight assessment tools - includes formula for MBTI Creativity Index
- Stimulating Innovation (local copy), by Kostoff, Office of Naval Research (DOC file)
- Science and Technology Innovation (local copy), by Kostoff, Office of Naval Research - compares literature-based and workshop-based approaches for stimulating innovation (DOC file)
- Communication, Management Benchmark Study (local copy), Dept of Energy -- includes chapters on networking, alliances, organizational culture, and innovation
- Innovation, especially organizational, short chapter, covers a lot
- Creativity, how to cultivate, short chapter, covers a lot
- Leadership: Creativity and Innovation, by William Klemm, from AU-24, GOOD broad coverage of ideas
- Innovation and the Military Mind, by Air Vice-Marshal R. A. Mason, from AU-24
- The Creative Leader, by Kendall, from AU-24
- Innovation: from Getting It to Getting It Done (local copy) - briefing by Kao, from OSD Transformation website
- Leadership and Influence (local copy), self-study course from FEMA
- Leadership: Strategies for Personal Success - Student Manual (local copy), FEMA
- Managing Multiple Roles for the Company Officer
- Creativity
- Enhancing Your Personal Power Base
- Ethics
- Leadership: Strategies for Personal Success - Instructor Guide (local copy), FEMA
- Creativity Web, resources for creativity and innovation
- 10 Kick Starts to Your Creativity
- Creativity Basics
- The Serendipity Equations, by Figueiredo and Campos, posted by the Naval Research Lab
- Searching the Unsearchable: Inducing Serendipitous Insights, by Campos and Figueiredo, posted by the Naval Research Lab
- Beyond Productivity: Information Technology, Innovation, and Creativity, National Academies Press, 2003 - addresses issues such as "what makes people creative" and "how creative people work"
- The International Center for Studies in Creativity at Buffalo State College
- Creativity in the Workplace, links to resources
- Creativity for Life, living creatively
- The Innovation Journal
- American Creativity Association
- European Association for Creativity and Innovation (EACI)
Emotional Intelligence
- Emotional Intelligence - Implications for All U.S. Air Force Leaders, by Latour and Hosmer, in Air & Space Power Journal
- Gov Online Learning Center - with courses on ethics, management, risk assessment, decision-making, critical thinking, problem-solving, strategic planning, etc.
- Consortium for Research on Emotional Intelligence in Organizations
- "Leadership That Gets Results," by Daniel Goleman, in Harvard Business Review,
- describes six leadership styles: Coercive, Authoritative, Affiliative, Democratic, Pacesetting and Coaching
- Managing with Emotional Intelligence, at LeadershipAdvantage.com
- Emotional Intelligence As a Leadership Skill - course at the Federal Executive Institute
- From Army Management Staff College (AMSC), Dr Ursula Lohmann
- Emotional Competence and Leadership (local copy), USCG one-page summary
- EQ.org directory of internet Emotional Intelligence sites
- Emotional Intelligence at HayGroup.com - just an intro to the concept
- Emotional Intelligence Test - one example
- EQ Emotional Intelligence tests online - mixed quality, try several and glean tidbits from the narratives
Brainstorming
- See also Kipling for six places to start - what, why, when, how, where, and who
- Rules for Brainstorming (local copy), from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
- The Idea Center, with IdeaFisher software, commercial brainstorming tool, with modules for strategic planning, speeches/presentations, conflict resolution, and creative writing
Memory Skills
Concept Maps
Cognitive Skills
Cognitive Bias
- See also fallacies in logic
- Heuristics and Biases in Military Decision Making (local copy), by Williams, Military Review, Sep-Oct 2010
- Fortunately, some have come to see the shortcomings of the classical MDMP process. It is illsuited for the analysis of problems exhibiting high volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity.
- When combining hindsight bias and retrievability biases, we potentially fail to guard against an event popularized euphemistically as a black swan.
- Instead of the usual striving toward a “best practices” methodology, which is also full of potential heuristic biases, reflective practice calls for “valuing the processes that challenge assimilative knowledge (i.e. continuous truth seeking) and by embracing the inevitable conflict associated with truth seeking.”
- Ben Goldacre: Battling bad science, a talk from TED.com (but you may need to watch it on YouTube if the TED.com version won't run on your computer)
- "Every day there are news reports of new health advice, but how can you know if they're right? Doctor and epidemiologist Ben Goldacre shows us, at high speed, the ways evidence can be distorted, from the blindingly obvious nutrition claims to the very subtle tricks of the pharmaceutical industry."
- Criminal Investigation Failures: Avoiding the Pitfalls (Part One) (local copy), by Rossmo, in Law Enforcement Bulletin, Sep 2006 - discusses various types of cognitive bias
- Cognitive Biases listed at Wikipedia
- Psychology of Intelligence Analysis (local copy), by Heuer, 1999, for CIA
-- very good examination of many elements of critical thinking, with examples (PDF version)
- Check out Part III - Cognitive Biases
- Countering Terrorism: Integration of Practice and Theory (local copy), overview of conference at FBI Academy, Feb 2002
- from Appendix 8: Psychology of Bias
These investigators found that there is a general bias, based on both innate predispositions and experience, in animals and humans, to give greater weight to negative events or attributes. This is evident in four ways:
(a) negative potency (negative entities are stronger than the equivalent positive entities),
(b) steeper negative gradients (the negativity of negative events grows more rapidly with approach to them in space or time than does the positivity of positive events),
(c) negativity dominance (combinations of negative and positive entities yield evaluations that are more negative than the algebraic sum of individual subjective evaluations would predict), and
(d) negative differentiation (negative entities are more varied, yield more complex conceptual representations, and engage a wider response repertoire).
The authors review this taxonomy, with emphasis on negativity dominance, including literary, historical, religious, and cultural sources, as well as the psychological literatures on learning, attention, impression formation, contagion, moral judgment, development, and memory. They suggest that one feature of negative events that make them dominant is that negative entities are more “contagious” than positive entities.
Sensemaking
- David Moore
- Sensemaking: A Structure for an Intelligence Revolution (local copy), by Moore, National Defense Intelligence College (NDIC), March 2011
- Mindfulness, wicked problems, paradigm shifts, intuitive thinking, validation, intelligence rigor, limitations, and more
- Sensemaking, whereby intelligence professionals would work with executive decisionmakers to explain data that are “sparse, noisy, and uncertain,” requires an interpreter and experienced champion to bring about a practicable understanding and acceptance of the concept among intelligence practitioners. David Moore has accomplished that feat. Further, he, along with collaborators in chapters 5 and 7, demonstrate how sensemaking can be accomplished as a collaborative enterprise.
- Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis (local copy, 1.4 Mb low res), by Moore, National Defense Intelligence College (NDIC) occasional paper no. 14, March 2007 (local copy, 12.1 Mb high res) - includes generic and intel-specific discussion, as well as an appendix which is the NSA's Critical Thinking and Structured Analysis Class Syllabus
- A Sensemaking Experiment – Enhanced Reasoning Techniques to Achieve Cognitive Precision (local copy), by Klein et al, DODCCRP, 8 Feb 2007
- FOCUS: A Model of Sensemaking (local copy), by Sieck et al, ARI report, May 2007
- Sensemaking Symposium, Final Report (local copy), DODCCRP
Critical Thinking
Imagination is more important than knowledge.
For knowledge is limited to all we now know and understand,
while imagination embraces the entire world,
and all there ever will be to know and understand.
— Albert Einstein
Not everything that can be counted counts,
and not everything that counts can be counted.
— Albert Einstein
Trying to get people to reason in a way that is not natural for them
is like trying to teach a pig to sing.
You don't accomplish anything and you annoy the pig.
— E. Jeffrey Conklin & William Weil
Men believe what they prefer.
— Francis Bacon
If a man will begin with certainties, he shall end in doubts.
But if he will be content to begin with doubts he shall end in certainties.
— Francis Bacon
My story is proud...The entry of truth with chalk to mark those minds which are capable to lodge and harbour it.
— Francis Bacon
For myself, I found that I was fitted for nothing so well as for the study of truth; as having a Mind nimble and versatile enough to catch the Resemblances of Things (which is the chief point) and at the same time steady enough to fix and distinguish their Subtler Differences; as being gifted by Nature with Desire to seek, patience to Doubt, fondness to Meditate, slowness to assert, readiness to consider, carefulness to dispose and set in order; and as being a man that neither affects what is new nor admires what is old, and that hates every kind of Imposture. So I thought my Nature had a kind of familiarity and Relationship with Truth.
— Francis Bacon, On the Interpretation of Nature, 1603
- See argumentative and persuasive communication
- See media affecting decision making
- Developing Creative and Critical Thinkers (local copy), by Allen and Gerras, in Military Review, Nov-Dec 2009
- UFMCS Red Team Handbook, Apr 2011 (local copy)
- Much of the material directly applies to critical thinking and becoming better at it.
- Each section can almost stand alone, and Section XI – Structured Analytic Techniques – has a large variety of tools/techniques for overcoming “mind-sets” – including “9 Step Cultural Methodology” and “String of Pearls” tool and “Analysis of Competing Hypotheses” and a passel of others.
- Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis (local copy, 1.4 Mb low res), by Moore, National Defense Intelligence College (NDIC) occasional paper no. 14, March 2007 (local copy, 12.1 Mb high res) - includes generic and intel-specific discussion, as well as an appendix which is the NSA's Critical Thinking and Structured Analysis Class Syllabus
- Psychology of Intelligence Analysis (local copy), by Heuer, 1999, for CIA -- very good examination of many elements of critical thinking, with examples (PDF version)
- A Tradecraft Primer: Structured Analytic Techniques for Improving Intelligence Analysis (local copy), posted by CIA, March 2009
- This primer highlights structured analytic techniques—some widely used in the private sector and academia, some unique to the intelligence profession. It is not a comprehensive overview of how intelligence officers conduct analysis. Rather, the primer highlights how structured analytic techniques can help one challenge judgments, identify mental mindsets, stimulate creativity, and manage uncertainty. In short, incorporating regular use of techniques such as these can enable one to structure thinking for wrestling with difficult questions.
- CIA Compendium of Analytic Tradecraft Notes (local copy) - "CIA has made this edition [1995] of the compendium available to the public to help shed light on how the Directorate of Intelligence meets the daily challenges of providing timely, accurate, and rigorous analysis to intelligence consumers"
- Critical Thinking: Plugging (or Moving) a Hole in Our Swiss Cheese (local copy), by Johns, Assistant U.S. Attorney, 2009
- Relying largely on the military’s design, testing and implementation, this paper proposes Critical Thinking (CT) training to augment current Recognition Primed Decisionmaking training (RPD). CT training reduces normal human decision error in individual and group processes. Individual CT can reduce or, in a specific case, close a hole in the Swiss Cheese model. In a group, CT can also move the hole out of alignment. Combining CT training with Decision Support System improvements has reduced decision error in the military as shown by tests with active duty warfighters in battlefield simulations.
- Critical Reasoning for Beginners, by the Faculty of Philosophy, University of Oxford - videos, audios, and slides (can play the audio while viewing the slides, and avoid downloading 600+ Mb videos)
- In this six-week course delivered by Marianne Talbot, you will learn all about arguments, how to identify and evaluate them, and how not to mistake bad arguments for good.
- Critical Thinking - tools to test/measure
- The Critical Thinking Rubric, Critical Thinking Project, Washington State University - assesses skill at each step of the problem solving process, including ability of individual to identify and consider influence by the context of the issue
- Seven dimensions to be assessed:
- Identifies and summarizes the problem/question at issue (and/or the source's position).
- Identifies and presents the STUDENT'S OWN hypothesis, perspective and position as it is important to the analysis of the issue.
- Identifies and considers OTHER salient perspectives and positions that are important to the analysis.
- Identifies and assesses the key assumptions.
- Identifies and assesses the quality of supporting data/evidence and provides additional data/evidence related to the issue.
- Identifies and considers the influence of the context on the issue. [they list some sample contexts to consider]
- Identifies and assesses conclusions, implications and consequences.
- Holistic Critical Thinking Scoring Rubric, by Facione and Facione
- California Critical Thinking Skills Test (CCTST)
- Test of Every Day Reasoning (TER)
- Thinking Critically about Critical Thinking: a Fundamental Guide for Strategic Leaders (local copy), by Gerras, U.S. Army War College, June 2006
- The Cognitive Bases of Intelligence Analysis (local copy, 6 Mb file), by Thompson et al, U.S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences, Jan 1984
- Critical Thinking For The Military Professional, by Guillot, in Air & Space Power Chronicles
- CRITO (local copy), a step-by-step method for creating a critical analysis essay,
courtesy of Dr. David K. Johnson, Massachusetts College of Liberal Arts
- C - State a Conclusion or claim
- R - State Reasons or evidence meant to convince the reader
- .I - Test the Inference, or argument
- T - Test the Truth of the R
- O - Construct the strongest imaginable Objections, and respond to them
- Risk Perception & Strategic Decision Making: General Insights, a New Framework, and Specific Application to Electricity Generation Using Nuclear Energy (local copy), by Brewer, Sandia National Labs, Nov 2005 - some good generic discussion included, such as ten critical thinking processes, with examples for each
- Active Learning Strategies to Promote Critical Thinking, by Walker, William Paterson University - a good summary of educational references regarding critical thinking
- Tools for Improving Your Critical Thinking
- Training Critical Thinking for Tactical Command (local copy), NATO report, Apr 2004
- The Miniature Guide to Critical Thinking: Concepts & Tools, by R. Paul and L. Elder, The Foundation for Critical Thinking, 2002
- A Rulebook for Arguments, by Anthony Weston
- Critical Thinking: What It Is and Why It Counts, by Facione, Santa Clara U. - 2010 update is available
- Strategies for Teaching Critical Thinking (local copy), an ERIC Digest
- CriticalThinking.org - with 35 Dimensions of Critical Thought, GOOD series of short articles on affective and cognitive strategies, incl such items as listening critically
- Evaluating Critical Thinking Skills (local copy), from U.S. Naval Academy's Center for Teaching and Learning -- criteria-based evaluation guide
- Manual of Job-Related Thinking Skills (local copy), Department of Homeland Security - including deductive reasoning, reasoning with sets, inductive reasoning about real-world events, and statistical reasoning - includes quizzes throughout
- How Critical Thinking Shapes the Military Decision Making Process (local copy), by Usry, Naval War College, 2004
- A lack of Combatant Commander (COCOM) critical thinking in the Military Decision Making Process (MDMP) is a causal factor in military failure at the operational level. However, critical thinking can improve the MDMP of the COCOM. This paper analyzes the effects of critical thinking on the combatant commander’s decision making process by: defining critical thinking; illustrating its impact on intuitive and analytical decisions; demonstrating barriers to critical thinking and proposing practical ways to use critical thinking in the MDMP.
- The Role of Rhetorical Theory in Military Intelligence Analysis - A Soldier’s Guide to Rhetorical Theory (local copy), by Mills, AU Press
- Critical Thinking on the Web, "a directory of quality online resources"
- Developing Thinking Skills: Critical Thinking at the Army Management Staff College (AMSC) (local copy), by Eichhorn
- Assessing Curriculum via Critical Thinking (local copy, PDF, 300 kb), by Eichhorn, AMSC - includes various models, procedures, lists, etc.
(PPT, 1.1 Mb - with transition effects, etc.)
- U.S. Army Research Institute (ARI) products - see also ARI decision making products
- Critical Logistics Thinking Skills (local copy), by Dehrer, for U.S. Army Logistics Management College
- James Garrett & Shaylyn Romney Garrett - Teaching Critical Thinking in the Middle East, a TEDxDeadSea (independently organized TED event) video
- "They are committed educators whose work in Jordan has focused on promoting critical and creative thinking. Their curriculum, called “Brain Camp,” is an educational intervention that focuses on building eight critical thinking skills with the aim of equipping the rising generation of Jordanians to become creative and effective problem solvers."
- Center for Critical Thinking, aka Critical Thinking Community
- Library of articles on critical thinking, incl GOOD series of short articles ranging from Socratic teaching to assessing thinking skills
- Other resources include the following
- Valuable Intellectual Traits
- Intellectual Humility
- Intellectual Courage
- Intellectual Empathy
- Intellectual Integrity
|
- Intellectual Perseverance
- Faith in Reason
- Fairmindedness
|
- Universal Intellectual Standards "are standards which must be applied to thinking whenever one is interested in checking the quality of reasoning" - "following are the most significant"
- Clarity
- Accuracy
- Precision
- Relevance
|
- Depth
- Breadth
- Logic
|
- Dartmouth Writing Program support materials - including development of argument
- Fundamentals of Critical Reading and Effective Writing
- Critical Thinking Across the Curriculum Project, Metropolitan Community College
- Mission: Critical, tutorial on critical thinking, San Jose State University
- Institute for Critical Thinking (ICT), Montclair State U.
- Graduate Program in Critical and Creative Thinking (CCT), U. of Mass. Boston
- Of the Liberty of Thought and Discussion, Chapter 2 from On Liberty, by John Stuart Mill
- Rudyard Kipling, from "The Elephant's Child" in Just So Stories
I keep six honest serving-men
(They taught me all I knew);
Their names are What and Why and When
And How and Where and Who.
[ed. - answering those six questions is often a good place to begin - and "why" is usually the one that pushes your writing past the knowledge level and demonstrates/reveals your insights]
- Occam's Razor, published 1328 (also spelled Ockham)
- also known as the Law of Parsimony or Principle of Economy or Principle of Simplicity
- Principle from William of Occam (logician and Franciscan friar, c. 1285-1350 or 1280-1349) -- stating that given multiple theories to explain a set of observations the simplest explanation is to be preferred
- "Pluralitas non est ponenda sine neccesitate" or "non sunt multiplicanda entia praeter necessitatem" - "Entities should not be multiplied unnecessarily."
- "Never multiply explanations or make them more complicated than necessary. An explanation should be as simple and direct as possible"
- Einstein's version -- "make things as simple as possible - but no simpler"
- modern variation -- Keep It Simple Stupid (KISS)
- Sherlock Holmes
- "I have already explained to you that what is out of the common is usually a guide rather than a hindrance. In solving a problem of this sort, the grand thing is to be able to reason backward. That is a very useful accomplishment, and a very easy one, but people do not practise it much. In the everyday affairs of life it is more useful to reason forward, and so the other comes to be neglected. There are fifty who can reason synthetically for one who can reason analytically." [in A Study in Scarlet, 1887]
- "How often have I said to you that when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth?" [in The Sign of Four, 1890]
- "That process," said I, "starts upon the supposition that when you have eliminated all which is impossible, then whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth. It may well be that several explanations remain, in which case one tries test after test until one or other of them has a convincing amount of support." [in The Case Book of Sherlock Holmes, 1927]
- "It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts." [in The Adventures of Sherlock Holmes, 1892, "A Scandal in Bohemia"]
- "I ought to know by this time that when a fact appears to be opposed to a long train of deductions, it invariably proves to be capable of bearing some other interpretation." [in A Study in Scarlet, 1887]
- Applying the Science of Learning: Using the Principles of Cognitive Psychology To Enhance Teaching and Learning (local copy), testimony before Congress by Halpern
- Promoting Critical Thinking In Professional Military Education, an Air University research paper
- Improving Leadership through Better Decision Making: Fostering Critical Thinking, an Air University research paper
- Appendix A discusses the Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal - which is composed of a series of five tests
- inference test - "gauges ones’ ability to discern the degree of truth or falsity of inferences drawn from the data that you are given"
- recognition of assumptions test - samples the "ability to recognize unstated assumptions in statements"
- deduction test - "samples the ability to reason properly when given a statement of premise; to recognize the relation of implication between propositions"
- interpretation test - samples the "ability to weigh evidence and make valid generalizations"
- evaluation of arguments test - "samples the ability to distinguish strong and relevant arguments from ones which are weak or irrelevant"
- Critical Thinking I, lesson plan at SAMS, Leavenworth (local copy)
- Critical Thinking II, lesson plan at SAMS, Leavenworth (local copy)
- Collaborative Learning Enhances Critical Thinking, article by Gokhale
- Articles on Critical Thinking, annotated bibliography
- Logic Tutor, by Green - FREE online tutorial system on logic
- Think Critically about What You Find on the Web
- Write a Critical Book Review
Science and Reason
Even for the physicist the description in plain language will be a criterion of the degree of understanding that has been reached.
— Werner Karl Heisenberg
- How Science Works (local copy), by Goodstein, in Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence, Second Edition, Federal Judicial Center, 2000 - compares Francis Bacon’s Scientific Method, Karl Popper’s Falsification Theory, Thomas Kuhn’s Paradigm Shifts, and more
- Steps of the scientific method (from CDC site)
- Name the problem or question
- Form an educated guess (hypothesis)
of the cause of the problem and make
predictions based upon the hypothesis
- Test your hypothesis by doing an
experiment or study (with proper controls)
- Check and interpret your results
- Report your results to the scientific
community
- Scientific Method Man, article in Wired, Sep 2004 - discussing "verifier approach" to problem solution, as used by Gordon Rugg
- With the verifier approach, Rugg begins by asking experts to draw a mental map of their field. From there, he stitches together many maps to form an atlas of the universe of knowledge on the subject. "You look for an area of overlap that doesn't contain much detail," he says. "If it turns out there's an adjoining area which everyone thinks is someone else's territory, then that's a potential gap."
- His approach is built on the observation, noted as far back as the 1970s, that experts tend to cut to the chase. In their zeal to get to an answer, they make many little mistakes. (A recent study of work published in Nature and British Medical Journal, for example, found that 11 percent of papers had serious statistical errors.) Experts unknowingly fudge logic to square data with their hypotheses. Or they develop blind spots after years of working in isolation. They lose their ability to take a broader view. If all this is true, he says, think of how much big science is based on flawed intuition.
- The verifier method boils down to seven steps:
- 1) amass knowledge of a discipline through interviews and reading;
- 2) determine whether critical expertise has yet to be applied in the field;
- 3) look for bias and mistakenly held assumptions in the research;
- 4) analyze jargon to uncover differing definitions of key terms;
- 5) check for classic mistakes using human-error tools;
- 6) follow the errors as they ripple through underlying assumptions;
- 7) suggest new avenues for research that emerge from steps one through six.
- Additional resources on the Verifier Approach
Socratic Method & Asking Questions
Air Force Smart Operations for the 21st Century (AFSO21)
- AFSO21 Fact Sheet
- For more AFSO21 guidance/handbooks/tools/reference/etc. go to the AF Portal and do a search for AFSO21
- Air Force leaders emphasize AFSO21, by Bergquist, Air University Public Affairs, 28 Sep 2009
- AFSO21 adopts 8-step problem solving model, by Todd, 14th Flying Training Wing Commander's Action Group, 10 Mar 2008
- Air Force Smart Operations for the 21st Century, or AFSO21, has adopted a new 8-Step Problem Solving Model to achieve continuous process improvement. This model is based on the OODA Loop and will make it easier for Air Force members to eliminate waste in the workplace.
- Air Force Smart Operations for the 21st Century - Playbook, May 2008 - over 300 pages of tools for improvement, including the 8-step problem solving process
- The eight steps are expanded starting on page B-1 (pdf page 15)
(1) Clarify and Validate the Problem (Observe)
(2) Break Down the Problem and Identify Performance Gaps (Observe)
(3) Set Improvement Targets (Orient)
(4) Determine Root Causes (Orient)
(5) Develop Countermeasures (Decide)
(6) See Countermeasures Through (Act)
(7) Confirm Results and Process (Act)
(8) Standardize Successful Processes (Act)
- USAF 8-Step Problem Solving Process template (AFD-090716-101.doc) with expanded sub-steps and reference to additional tools
Process and Design
- "The Master Planner" interview in the August 2010 issue of Wired Magazine with Fred Brooks, author of The Mythical Man-Month [focused on writing computer code] and The Design of Design
- Great design does not come from great process; it comes from great designers.
- The critical thing about the design process is to identify your scarcest resource.
- You have to make sure your whole team understands what scarce resource you're optimizing.
- You build a quick prototype and get it in front of users to see what they do with it. You will always be surprised.
- Edwin Land, inventor of the Polaroid camera, once said that his method of design was to start with a vision of what you want and then, one by one, remove the technical obstacles until you have it.
- ... I once argued that every member of a team should be able to see the code of every other member, but it turns out that encapsulation works much better.
- DoD resources
- USMC Continuous Process Improvement (CPI) Guidebook (local copy)
- US Navy Pacific Fleet's Handbook for Basic Process Improvement (BPI) (local copy)
Problem Solving
The one common experience of all humanity is the challenge of problems.
— R. Buckminster Fuller
I am enthusiastic over humanity's extraordinary and sometimes very timely ingenuities. If you are in a shipwreck and all the boats are gone, a piano top buoyant enough to keep you afloat may come along and make a fortuitous life preserver. This is not to say, though, that the best way to design a life preserver is in the form of a piano top. I think we are clinging to a great many piano tops in accepting yesterday's fortuitous contrivings as constituting the only means for solving a given problem.
— R. Buckminster Fuller
If I had an hour to solve a problem and my life depended on the solution, I would spend the first 55 minutes determining the proper question to ask, for once I know the proper question, I could solve the problem in less than five minutes.
— Albert Einstein
Intellectuals solve problems; geniuses prevent them.
— Albert Einstein
We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.
— Albert Einstein
The biggest problem in the world could have been solved when it was small.
— Witter Bynner
There is always an easy solution to every human problem—neat, plausible, and wrong.
— H.L. Mencken
If a problem has no solution, it may not be a problem, but a fact - not to be solved, but to be coped with over time.
— Shimon Peres
- See also Decision Making
- See also Critical Thinking
- See also AFSO21
- School of Advanced Air and Space Studies (SAASS), Air University
- School of Advanced Military Studies (SAMS), U.S. Army
- School of Advanced Warfighting (SAW), Marine Corps University
- Joint Advanced Warfighting School (JAWS), National Defense University
- Naval Operational Planner Course (NOPC), Naval War College
- Storytelling as an Instructional Method: Definitions and Research Questions (local copy), by Andrews et al, sponsored by AFRL, published in The Interdisciplinary Journal of Problem-based Learning, Fall 2009 - deals with problem-based instruction, scenario-based instruction, case-based instruction, and narrative-based instruction
- Building a Wise Crowd (local copy), based on James Surowiecki's bestseller The Wisdom of Crowds, from "Ask the Academy" at NASA Academy, 24 Feb 2006 - showing how a group of people's diverse answers to a question, when put together, can be better than the expert's - in some cases, not all
- AFSO21 adopts 8-step problem solving model, by Todd, 14th Flying Training Wing Commander's Action Group, 10 Mar 2008
- Air Force Smart Operations for the 21st Century, or AFSO21, has adopted a new 8-Step Problem Solving Model to achieve continuous process improvement. This model is based on the OODA Loop and will make it easier for Air Force members to eliminate waste in the workplace.
- see AFSO21 section for 8-step problem solving process and other tools
- How to Think: Reflections from Dr Jack - Combined Arms Center Blog
- How to Think: Problem Identification, Reflections from Dr Jack, Combined Arms Center Blog, 22 Oct 2008
- How to Think: Creativity and Adaptability, Reflections from Dr Jack, Combined Arms Center Blog, 25 Oct 2008
- How to Think: To Change an Army, Reflections from Dr Jack, Combined Arms Center Blog, 29 Oct 2008
- How to Think: Framing the Problem, Reflections from Dr Jack, Combined Arms Center Blog, 31 Oct 2008
- How to Think: Wicked Problems, Reflections from Dr Jack, Combined Arms Center Blog, 11 Nov 2008
- How to Think: The Mission Narrative, Reflections from Dr Jack, Combined Arms Center Blog, 3 Feb 2009
- The Four Horsemen of the Problem Solving Apocalypse (local copy), by Coppola, in U.S. Army Medical Department Journal, Jul-Aug 1997
- Decision Making and Problem Solving (local copy), from Army ROTC
- Innovative Problem Solving in USAF Officer PME Curriculum, ACSC research paper
- Problem Solving -- related theories
- Decision Making and Problem Solving (local copy), self-study course from FEMA
- Osborn-Parnes Creative Problem-Solving (CPS) process
- Traditional Six-Step Problem Solving Process
- Identify and Select the Problem
- Analyze the Problem
- Generate Potential Solutions
- Select and Plan the Solution
- Implement the Solution
- Evaluate the Solution
- Influence of Anonymity in a Group Problem-Solving Environment, research paper, Air Force Institute of Technology (AFIT)
- Planning Primer, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 23 pages -- includes discussion of problem-solving process (local copy)
- Planning Manual, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 321 pages -- includes discussion of problem-solving process (local copy)
- Six-Step Problem Solving Process, as used by Army Corps of Engineers
- Identifying problems and opportunities
- Inventorying and forecasting conditions
- Formulating alternative plans
- Evaluating alternative plans
- Comparing alternative plans
- Selecting a plan
- Techniques for Effective Decision Making, by Mind Tools
- Problem Solving and Decision Making: Consideration of Individual Differences - Using the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI), by Huitt
Wicked Problems
- How to Think: Reflections from Dr Jack - Combined Arms Center Blog
- How to Think: Wicked Problems, Reflections from Dr Jack, Combined Arms Center Blog, 11 Nov 2008
- "The term “wicked problems” was coined by Horst Rittel and Melvin Webber in 1973 to describe problems in planning that defy analytical methods for solutions"
- includes Rittle and Webber's 10 criteria for defining a "wicked problem" - with a brief description of each
- "There are a number of key implications from the concept of “wicked problems.” One issue is that there must be constant framing and reframing of a wicked problem to identify the second and third order effects of a plan or operation. A great plan may be only treating a symptom and not the underlying causes of the problem – potentially making the situation worse. Constant reframing and assessment are necessary to identify this throughout planning and operations."
- "Another issue with “wicked problems” is that there are frequently multiple problems and issues within a problem set. The tendency to identify a problem as a familiar and simple problem – looking for simple cause and effect relationship – may mask multiple problems and lead to wrong solutions."
- Wicked problem, entry in Wikipedia - includes descriptions of several strategies to cope witih wicked problems
- Sandia research team studies best way to solve wicked problems, Sandia National Labs, 29 Nov 2007
- What’s the best way to solve a wicked problem — by working in a large group sharing ideas via the intranet or as individuals? That’s the question George S. Davidson and his research team at Sandia National Laboratories attempted to resolve this summer.
- ...
- “We were amazed at the length and quality of the responses, both from the people working as a group and those working individually,” Dornburg says. “People were very engaged, often writing long, detailed responses.”
- She adds that what was most interesting is that the quality of ideas from the people responding as individuals was “significantly better across all three quality ratings.”
- Dornburg says the finding that individuals are more successful than groups in computer-mediated brainstorming suggests a time- and cost-saving potential for companies. Generally, when electronic group brainstorming is compared to face-to-face brainstorming, it is touted as having the advantages of shorter meetings, increased participation by remote team members, better documentation via electronic recording, and cash savings. But the Sandia research suggests that people working to solve problems on their own might involve less time and, thus less expenses, than electronic group brainstorming.
- While individuals working alone nominally faired better in this study, Davidson says, the research also indicates that group on-line brainstorming can be effective when ideas are needed from large numbers of people.
- Pakistan’s FATA – A Wicked Problem (local copy), by McMahon, U.S. Army War College, 17 Mar 2009 - explores a wicked problem through the lens of the 10 characteristics of a wicked problem (from Rittel and Webber)
Analysis of Competing Hypotheses
Root Cause Analysis
Decision Making and Analysis
When you get to the fork in the road, take it.
— Yogi Berra
Short term thinking drives out long term strategy, every time.
— Nobel Prize-winning economist Herbert Simon
- See Problem Solving above
- See Critical Thinking above
- See Sensemaking above
- See Intuition below
- See Ethical Decision Making
- See Media Affecting Decision Making
- See Game Theory below
- See Tactical Decision Games contrasting intuitive and analytic approaches
- See John Boyd and the OODA loop
- See combat leadership, including key historical decisions
- TED.com videos - most are 6-15 minutes
- Sheena Iyengar on the art of choosing - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked)
- "Sheena Iyengar studies how we make choices -- and how we feel about the choices we make. At TEDGlobal, she talks about both trivial choices (Coke v. Pepsi) and profound ones, and shares her groundbreaking research that has uncovered some surprising attitudes about our decisions."
- Kathryn Schulz: On being wrong - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked)
- "Most of us will do anything to avoid being wrong. But what if we're wrong about that? "Wrongologist" Kathryn Schulz makes a compelling case for not just admitting but embracing our fallibility."
- Malcolm Gladwell on What we can learn from spaghetti sauce - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked)
- "Tipping Point author Malcolm Gladwell gets inside the food industry's pursuit of the perfect spaghetti sauce -- and makes a larger argument about the nature of choice and happiness."
- Noreena Hertz: How to use experts - and when not to - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked)
- We make important decisions every day -- and we often rely on experts to help us decide. But, says economist Noreena Hertz, relying too much on experts can be limiting and even dangerous. She calls for us to start democratizing expertise -- to listen not only to "surgeons and CEOs, but also to shop staff."
- Barry Schwartz on the paradox of choice - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked)
- "Psychologist Barry Schwartz takes aim at a central tenet of western societies: freedom of choice. In Schwartz's estimation, choice has made us not freer but more paralyzed, not happier but more dissatisfied."
- Barry Schwartz: Using our practical wisdom - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked)
- "In an intimate talk, Barry Schwartz dives into the question "How do we do the right thing?" With help from collaborator Kenneth Sharpe, he shares stories that illustrate the difference between following the rules and truly choosing wisely."
- Eric Berlow: How complexity leads to simplicity - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked)
- "Ecologist Eric Berlow doesn't feel overwhelmed when faced with complex systems. He knows that more information can lead to a better, simpler solution. Illustrating the tips and tricks for breaking down big issues, he distills an overwhelming infographic on U.S. strategy in Afghanistan to a few elementary points."
- George Whitesides: Toward a science of simplicity - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked)
- "Simplicity: We know it when we see it -- but what is it, exactly? In this funny, philosophical talk, George Whitesides chisels out an answer."
- James Geary, metaphorically speaking - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked)
- "Aphorism enthusiast and author James Geary waxes on a fascinating fixture of human language: the metaphor. Friend of scribes from Aristotle to Elvis, metaphor can subtly influence the decisions we make, Geary says."
- Dan Ariely asks, Are we in control of our own decisions? - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked)
- "Behavioral economist Dan Ariely, the author of Predictably Irrational, uses classic visual illusions and his own counterintuitive (and sometimes shocking) research findings to show how we're not as rational as we think when we make decisions."
- Dan Ariely: Beware conflicts of interest - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked)
- "In this short talk, psychologist Dan Ariely tells two personal stories that explore scientific conflict of interest: How the pursuit of knowledge and insight can be affected, consciously or not, by shortsighted personal goals. When we're thinking about the big questions, he reminds us, let's be aware of our all-too-human brains."
- Decision Making -- related theories
- Good Decisions: Tips and Strategies for Avoiding Psychological Traps (Local Copy), by Fitch, in the FBI Law Enforcement Bulletin, June 2010
- Analysis Paralysis: A Case of Terminological Inexactitude (local copy), by Roberts, Defense AT&L, Jan-Feb 2010
- Critical Thinking: Plugging (or Moving) a Hole in Our Swiss Cheese (local copy), by Johns, Assistant U.S. Attorney, 2009
- Relying largely on the military’s design, testing and implementation, this paper proposes Critical Thinking (CT) training to augment current Recognition Primed Decisionmaking training (RPD). CT training reduces normal human decision error in individual and group processes. Individual CT can reduce or, in a specific case, close a hole in the Swiss Cheese model. In a group, CT can also move the hole out of alignment. Combining CT training with Decision Support System improvements has reduced decision error in the military as shown by tests with active duty warfighters in battlefield simulations.
- Recognition-Primed Decision (RPD) Model
- The Recogition-Primed Decision Model: an Alternative to the MDMP for GWOT (local copy), by Bushey and Forsyth, in Field Artillery, Jan-Feb 2006
- The Recogition-Primed Decision Model (local copy), by Ross et al, in Military Review, Jul-Aug 2004
- "Klein, S. Wolf, Laura G. Militellio, and Carolyn E.Zsambok show that skilled decisionmakers usually generate a good COA [course of action] on their first try. J.G. Johnson and M. Raab replicated this finding, extending it to show that when skilled decisionmakers abandon their initial COA in favor of a later one, the subsequent COA’s quality is significantly lower than the first one."
- Decision Making and the Levels of War (local copy), by Killion, in Military Review, Nov-Dec 2000
- Recognition-Primed Decision Strategies: First-Year Interim Report (local copy), by Klein and Crandall, ARI Research Note 90-91, 1990
- Integrated Planning: The Operations Process, Design, and the Military Decision Making Process (local copy), by Grigsby et al, Military Review, Jan-Feb 2011
- Heuristics and Biases in Military Decision Making (local copy), by Williams, Military Review, Sep-Oct 2010
- The Army values MDMP as the sanctioned approach for solving problems and making decisions. This stolid template is comforting; we are familiar with it. However, what do we do when our enemy does not conform to our assumptions embedded in the process? We discovered early in Iraq that our opponents fought differently than we expected.
- Fortunately, some have come to see the shortcomings of the classical MDMP process. It is illsuited for the analysis of problems exhibiting high volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity. The Army’s nascent answer, called “Design,” looks promising. As outlined in the new version of FM 5-0, Operations Process, Chapter 3, Design is defined as “a methodology for applying critical and creative thinking to understand, visualize, and describe complex, ill-structured problems and develop approaches to solve them.” Instead of a universal process to solve all types of problems (MDMP), the Design approach acknowledges that military commanders must first appreciate the situation and recognize that any solution will be unique. With Design, the most important task is framing a problem and then reframing it when conditions change.
- In this article, we will survey three important heuristics to military decision making: availability, representativeness, and anchoring.
- When combining hindsight bias and retrievability biases, we potentially fail to guard against an event popularized euphemistically as a black swan.
- Instead of the usual striving toward a “best practices” methodology, which is also full of potential heuristic biases, reflective practice calls for “valuing the processes that challenge assimilative knowledge (i.e. continuous truth seeking) and by embracing the inevitable conflict associated with truth seeking.”
- The Art of Design: a Design Methodology (local copy), by Banach, Military Review, Mar-Apr 2009
- Designing Decision Support Systems To Help Avoid Biases & Make Robust Decisions, With Examples From Army Planning, by Chandrasekaran, The Ohio State University, 1 Dec 08 - posted by DTIC
- Battle-Wise: Gaining Advantage in Networked Warfare (local copy), by Gompert et al, Center for Technology and National Security Policy, National Defense University, Jan 2005
- Battle-Wise: Seeking Time-Information Superiority in Networked Warfare (local copy), by Gompert et al, Center for Technology and National Security Policy, National Defense University, July 2006
- Chapter One - From Firepower to Information Power to Brainpower
- Chapter Two - Cognitive Demands of Networked Warfare
- Chapter Four - Defeating Networked Adversaries
- Chapter Five - Integrating Intuition and Reasoning in Action
- Chapter Six - From Networking Power to Cognitive Power
- The Reflective Military Practitioner: How Military Professionals Think in Action (local copy), by Paparone and Reed, Military Review, Mar-Apr 2008
- Strategic Decision Games: Improving Strategic Intuition (local copy), by DeFoor, Joint Advanced Warfighting School, 23 Apr 2007
- Net Assessment: A Practical Guide, by Bracken, in Parameters, Spring 2006
- Net assessment is one of the principal frameworks for analyzing the national security strategy of the United States. It has been used by the Department of Defense for many years. Understanding net assessment—what it is and what it can do—is important for two reasons. First, it has general application to many military issues. Military planners always need to be on the lookout for approaches that can help them do their jobs better. Net assessment should be in that tool kit.
- Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis, by Lempert, Popper, and Bankes; RAND report, 2003
- A sophisticated reader ought to view with great skepticism the prospect of answering questions about the long-term future. The checkered history of predicting the future — from the famous declarations that humans would never fly to the Limits to Growth study to claims about the “New Economy” — has dissuaded policymakers from considering the effects of their decisions more than a few months or years ahead. However, today’s choices will significantly influence the course of the twenty-first century. New analytic methods, enabled by modern computers, may transform our ability to reason systematically about the long term. This report reviews traditional methods of grappling with the morrow, from narratives to scenario analysis, which fail to address the multiplicity of plausible long-term futures. The authors demonstrate a quantitative approach to long-term policy analysis (LTPA). Robust decision methods enable decisionmakers to examine a vast range of plausible futures and design near-term, often adaptive, strategies to be robust across them. Reframing the question “What will the long-term future bring?” as “How can we choose actions today that will be consistent with our long-term interests?” these methods provide powerful analytic support to humans’ innate capacity for “what-if-ing.”
- Reforming Pentagon Strategic Decisionmaking (local copy), by Lamb and Lachow, INSS, Strategic Forum No. 221, July 2006
- Theory of Effectiveness Measurement (local copy), by Bullock, AFIT dissertation, Sep 2006
- Effectiveness measures provide decision makers feedback on the impact of deliberate actions and affect critical issues such as allocation of scarce resources, as well as whether to maintain or change existing strategy. Currently, however, there is no formal foundation for formulating effectiveness measures. This research presents a new framework for effectiveness measurement from both a theoretical and practical view. ... Finally, the pragmatic nature of the approach is illustrated by measuring the effectiveness of a notional, security force response strategy in a scenario involving a terrorist attack on a United States Air Force base.
- Cultural Differences
- Cultural Factors in Complex Decision Making, by Strohschneider, in Online Readings in Psychology and Culture, Center for Cross-Cultural Research, Western Washington University, Bellingham, Washington USA, 2002
- Decision Making in Individualistic and Collectivistic Cultures, by Güss, in Online Readings in Psychology and Culture, Center for Cross-Cultural Research, Western Washington University, Bellingham, Washington USA, 2002
- Risk Perception & Strategic Decision Making: General Insights, a New Framework, and Specific Application to Electricity Generation Using Nuclear Energy (local copy), by Brewer, Sandia National Labs, Nov 2005 - some good generic discussion included, such as ten critical thinking processes, with examples for each
- Command Decision-Making: Experience Counts (local copy), by Wolgast, Army War College paper, 2005
- Lee’s Mistake: Learning from the Decision to Order Pickett’s Charge (local copy), by Gompert and Kugler, Defense Horizons number 54, Aug 2006
- Custer in Cyberspace (local copy), by Gompert and Kugler, Defense Horizons number 51, Feb 2006
- One of the consequences of the network revolution and corresponding distribution of authority is that many more persons up and down the ranks will be making combat decisions than compared to the days of centralized command and control. Power is migrating from headquarters “to the edge.” Therefore, it is essential to foster battle-wisdom
not just for senior officers but also for the junior officers and noncommissioned officers leading units in the field.
- Gladwell, Malcolm. Blink: The Power of Thinking without Thinking. New York: Little, Brown, 2005
- Book review of Gladwell's Blink (local copy), by Norton, in Naval War College Review, Winter 2006
- Future Warfare and the Decline of Human Decisionmaking, by Adams, in Parameters, Winter 2001
- In short, the military systems (including weapons) now on the horizon will be too fast, too small, too numerous, and will create an environment too complex for humans to direct. Furthermore, the proliferation of information-based systems will produce a data overload that will make it difficult or impossible for humans to directly intervene in decisionmaking. This is not a consideration for the remote science-fiction future. Weapons and other military systems already under development will function at increasingly higher levels of complexity and responsibility--and increasingly without meaningful human intervention.
- Cultural Barriers to Multinational C2 Decision Making (local copy), by Klein et al, for 2000 Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium
- Principles for Intelligent Decision Aiding (local copy), by Hutchins, Technical Report 1718, Aug 1996
- Extending Naturalistic Decision Making to Complex Organizations: A Dynamic Model of Situated Cognition, by Shattuck and Miller, Naval Postgraduate School, 2006
- Naturalistic decision making (NDM) has become established as a methodological and theoretical
perspective. It describes how practitioners actually make decisions in complex domains. However, NDM
theories tend to focus on the human agents in the system. We extend the NDM perspective to include the
technological agents in complex systems and introduce the dynamic model of situated cognition.
- A Literature Review of Analytical and Naturalistic Decision Making (local copy), by Zsambok, Beach, and Klein, for Naval Command, Control and Ocean Surveillance Center, Dec 1992 - examines many decision models/strategies
- Experts, expertise, and experience (local copy), course module from NOAA
- What do experts do so well that others don't?
- Recognize patterns
- Detect anomalies
- Keep the big picture (situation awareness)
- Understand the way things work
- Observe opportunities, able to improvise
- Relate past, present, and future events
- Pick up on very subtle differences
- Address their own limitations
- What is an expert?
- Novice - Lives in the moment. Can’t recognize complex relationships. Produces limited options.
- Routine Expert - Great at everyday stuff, strong procedural knowledge. Runs into trouble when problems are ill-structured or novel.
- Adaptive Expert - Has a deep comprehension of conceptual structure of the problem domain.
- 25 hours of well done simulations can achieve the same effect as 2 years of experience (or much more)
- The Future of Simulation Technology for Law Enforcement: Diverse Experience with Realistic Simulated Humans (Local Copy), by Forsythe, in the FBI Law Enforcement Bulletin, Jan 2004
- Automation and Expertise: What is expertise and how can automation work against it? (local copy) briefing by Quoetone, at WDM III Workshop, NOAA (PDF)
- NASA's ASK Talks with Dr. Gary Klein - use of storytelling, even internally, to improve decision making and problem solving and development/use of expertise
- The Internet and Congressional Decisionmaking (local copy), a CRS report prepared for the Chairman, House Rules Committee, 19 Sep 2001
- Military Decisionmaking Process (MDMP)
- Implications of Modern Decision Science for Military Decision-Support Systems, by Davis, Kulick, and Egner, RAND, 2005
- Military Decision-Making Process (MDMP) (local copy), chapter 5 of FM 101-5 Staff Organization and Operations
- Is It Time to Abandon the Military Decisionmaking Process (local copy), by McLamb, in Military Review, Mar-Apr 2002
- US Army Decisionmaking: Past, Present, and Future (local copy), by Paparone, in Military Review, Jul-Aug 2001
- How Critical Thinking Shapes the Military Decision Making Process (local copy), by Usry, Naval War College, 2004
- A lack of Combatant Commander (COCOM) critical thinking in the Military Decision Making Process (MDMP) is a causal factor in military failure at the operational level. However, critical thinking can improve the MDMP of the COCOM. This paper analyzes the effects of critical thinking on the combatant commander’s decision making process by: defining critical thinking; illustrating its impact on intuitive and analytical decisions; demonstrating barriers to critical thinking and proposing practical ways to use critical thinking in the MDMP.
- Descriptive Models of Military Decision Making (local copy), by Klein et al, ARI Research Note 90-93, 1990
- Combined Forces Command-Afghanistan Management Decision Model (local copy), DoD IG, July 2005
- Considering the request for assistance and the proposed application of the MDM, the DoD IG Team created a “universal” model that can be used to assess the capability
and capacity of any organization founded on democratic principles and the “Rule of Law.” For the purposes of this model, the definition of “organization” includes the full spectrum of organizational structures—from a nation-state to any type of government-, military-, or business-related entity. Consequently, the DoD IG Team built the attached model and identified the high-level elements common to most organizations that should be considered to establish a viable, stable, and selfsustaining institution. This document, therefore, includes the Management Decision Model, instructions on how to use the model, and a comprehensive description of the various elements embedded in the model’s architecture.
- Between Discipline and Intuition: the Military Decision Making Process in the Army's Future Force (local copy), a 2004 SAMS paper by Vowell
- Groupthink
- Hive Mind and Groupthink: the Curse of the Perfect IPT (local copy), by Hewson, in Defense AT&L, Nov-Dec 2005
- Groupthink, Politics, and the Decision to Attempt the Son Tay Rescue, by Amidon, in Parameters, Summer 2005
- Effects of Groupthink on Tactical Decision-Making (local copy), a 2001 SAMS paper by Johnson
- Groupthink – The Dark Side of Teaming and How To Counteract It! (local copy), by Kaut, TACOM-ARDEC TQM Officer
- New Challenges, New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking
, RAND report, 2003
- Foundations for Reasoning in Cognition-Based Computational Representations of Human Decision Making (local copy), by Senglaub et al, Sandia National Laboratories, Nov 2001
- Decision Navigation: Coping with 21st-Century Challenges in Tactical Decisionmaking (local copy), by Gyllensporre, in Military Review, Sep-Oct 2003
- Tactical Decision Making (local copy), course by Marine Corps Institute
- Decision Making and Problem Solving (local copy), from Army ROTC
- Evaluation of Cross-Cultural Models for Psychological Operations: Test of a Decision Modeling Approach (local copy, 4 Mb), USAF Research Lab, June 2001
- Expeditionary Air Force Leaders: Cognitive Skills for the Naturalistic Battlespace
, by Thomas, Grable, and Stratton, in Air & Space Power Chronicles - including discussion of Recognition-Primed Decision-making (RPD)
- SPAWAR Systems Center (SSC), U.S. Navy
- Decision Support Systems for Coalition Operations: Final Report (local copy), Technical Report 1886, Aug 2002
- Decision-Making in a Dynamic Environment: The Effects of Experience and Information Uncertainty (local copy), Technical Report 1832, Aug 2000
- Cognitive Aspects of Decision-Making: Project Summary (local copy), Technical Report 1830, July 2000
- Cultural Variation in Situation Assessment: Influence of Source Credibility and Rank Status (local copy), Technical Report 1829, July 2000
- Tactical Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: Experiments I and II (local copy), Technical Report 1821, Apr 2000
- A Cognitive Model for Exposition of Human Deception and Counterdeception (local copy), Technical Report 1076, Oct 1987
- U. S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences - see also ARI critical thinking products
- Collaboration and Self Assessment: How to Combine 360 Assessments to Increase Self-Understanding (local copy), by Psotka et al, ARI Report, Mar 2007
- Overview of Practical Thinking Instruction for Battle Command (local copy)
- Guidelines for Leaders to Consider When Making Decisions (local copy)
- Making Decisions in Natural Environments (local copy, 5.5 Mb), by Klein, ARI Research, Feb 1997
- Investigations of Naturalistic Decision Making and the Recognition-Primed Decision Model (local copy), by Klein and Calderwood, ARI Research Note 96-43
- The Development of Knowledge Elicitation Methods for Capturing Military Expertise (local copy), by Klein, ARI Research Note 96-14
- Predicting Rapid Decision-Making Processes Required by the Dismounted Objective Force Warrior (local copy, .7 Mb)
- Emotional Synthetic Forces (local copy)
- The objective of this research was to make the decision-making process of complex agents less predictable and more realistic, by incorporating emotional factors that affect humans.
- Measures of Platoon Leader Situation Awareness in Virtual Decision-Making Exercises (local copy)
- Assessing decision-making skills in virtual environments (local copy, 2.42 Mb)
- Decision-Centered MOUT Training for Small Unit Leaders (local copy, 2.08 Mb)
- Evaluating an Approach to MOUT Decision Skills Training (local copy, 1.66 Mb)
- Training Future Force Leaders to Make Decisions Using Digital Information (local copy, 2.3 Mb), Dec 2003, ARI report
- "... digital information such as video sensors and detailed map overlays will replace probabilistic cues from the environment."
- "While the decisions themselves do not differ, the decision-making process and the information used are different with digital information than with traditional cues. Decision making with digital information is more analytical ...."
- "Spatial orientation will become a key issue and skill in the electronic battlefield."
- The Case for a Joint Military Decisionmaking Process (local copy), by Anderson and Slate, in Military Review, Sep-Oct 2003
- Developing the Capacity for Decisive Action (local copy), by Krawchuk, in Military Review, Nov-Dec 2000 - 2000 MacArthur Writing Award 1st Place
- Decision Making and Problem Solving (local copy), self-study course from FEMA
- Decision Making in a Crisis (local copy), self-study course from FEMA
- Applying Dialectic to Acquisition Strategy (local copy), by Peeler, in Acquisition Review Quarterly, Spring 1997 - includes discussion of
- Kant's Hierarchy of Reason
- Hegel's Dialectic
- Karl Popper
- Simultaneous Antitheses
- General Robert E. Lee
and Modern Decision Theory, by Gilster, in AU Review, Mar-Apr 1972, including discussion of battle of Chancellorsville, and brief discussion of
- Lanchester Equations
- Bayes’ Theorem
- Von Neumann-Morgenstern Utility Theorem
- NATO’s Decision-Making Procedure (local copy), CRS report
- NATO Decisionmaking: Au Revoir to the Consensus Rule? (local copy), by Michel, Strategic Forum 202, Aug 2003
- The Ecology of Uncertainty: Sources, Indicators, and Strategies for Informational Uncertainty (local copy), by Schunn et al, Naval Research Lab
- The Center for Decision Research, U. of Chicago - including downloadable articles/papers
- Decision Sciences Institute (DSI), multidisciplinary international association dedicated to advancing knowledge and improving instruction in all business and related disciplines
- DoD Information Analysis Centers (IACs)
- Effective decision-making processes for the Joint Force Commander (local copy), from the Air Land Sea Bulletin, at the Air Land Sea Application Center
- Are You a Good Decision Maker? (local copy), from SBA -- includes "Ten Steps to Wise Decision-Making" and "Common Decision-Making Mistakes"
- The Human Side of Decision Making (local copy), from FAA -- brief examination of the human traits that interfere with decision-making
- Ladder of Inference (local copy), from NIH - "a model that describes an individual's mental process of observing situations, drawing conclusions and taking action"
- Intuitive Policing - Emotional/Rational Decision Making in Law Enforcement (local copy), by Pinizzotto et al, in the FBI Law Enforcement Bulletin, February 2004
- Making Ethical Decisions - A Practical Model (local copy), by Schafer, in the FBI Law Enforcement Bulletin, May 2002
- Cultivating Intuitive Decisionmaking (local copy), by Krulak, in Marine Corps Gazette, May 1999, as posted on the USMC Commandant's Page
- War in the Pits: Marine-Futures Traders Wargame (local copy), NDU Strategic Forum 61, by West
- Marine generals and colonels vs futures traders in decisionmaking wargame
- "The traders' OODA loop, executed at much higher speed, is ISAA: Information, Sort by Priority, Act, Assess"
- Virtual Stress (local copy), in Marines Online, senior Marines vs futures traders in decision making wargame
- The Collapse of Decisionmaking and Organizational Structure on Storm King Mountain (local copy), by Putnam, USDA Forest Service, 1995
- Numerous studies show no matter how many factors are important, the human mind normally can handle only about seven factors (e.g., seven-digit telephone numbers).
- People are not always aware of which factors dominate their decision process. Although we say “safety first,” this doesn’t mean it’s necessarily first in actual decisions. Also, people are seldom aware of the few factors they actually are processing so tend to be overconfident in their decisionmaking ability.
- Studies also show that our linear thinking tends to underestimate hazards, particularly if the hazard is increasing at a logarithmic or exponential rate as can happen on the fireline. An example would be estimating rates of fire spread. A computer would give the better decision in a heartbeat. People would tend to underestimate the rate of spread and have difficulty deciding on an appropriate course of action. And so it is important to understand the limits of how we process information and common types of errors that can occur.
- Eliciting Knowledge from Experts: A Methodological Analysis, by Hoffman et al, NASA Human-Factors workshop paper
- Revisiting the Abilene Paradox - Is Management of Agreement Still an Issue?, by Deiss - brief discussion of the mismanagement of agreement, where nobody in a group wants to do an activity, but the group does it because each member thinks all the others want to do it
- Strategic Leadership and Decision Making (local copy), book from NDU
- Intuition: an Imperative of Command (local copy), by Rogers, in Military Review - examines relevance of intuition to decision making in the context of warfighting on the modern battlefield
- Decisionmaking Theory (local copy), Marine Corps Doctrine Publication 6
- "the intuitive approach is more appropriate for the vast majority of typical tactical or operational decisions-decisions made in the fluid, rapidly changing conditions of war when time and uncertainty are critical factors, and creativity is a desirable trait"
- Note 18. Intuitive decisionmaking more appropriate for the vast majority of tactical/operational decisions: A 1989 study by Gary A. Klein (based on 1985 observations) estimated that decision makers in a variety of disciplines use intuitive methods 87 percent of the time and analytical methods 13 percent of the time. Evidence now suggests that this
study was actually biased in favor of analysis. More recent studies estimate the breakdown at more nearly 95 percent intuitive to 5 percent analytical. G. A. Klein, "Recognition-Primed Decisions" in William B. Rouse (ed.), Advances in Man-Machine System Research (Greenwich, CT: Jai Press, 1989); G. L. Kaempf, S. Wolf, M. L. Thordsen, and G. Klein, Decision Making in the Aegis Combat Information Center (Fairborn, OH: Klein Associates, 1992); R. Pascual and S. Henderson, "Evidence of Naturalistic Decision Making in Command and Control" in C. Zsambok and G. Klein (eds.), Naturalistic Decision Making, forthcoming publication (Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates); Kathleen Louise Mosier, Decision Making in the Air Transport Flight Deck: Process and Product, unpublished
dissertation (Berkeley, CA: University of California, 1990).
- Decision Making Theory (local copy), Naval Doctrine Publication 6, Naval Command and Control
- "The intuitive approach is clearly more appropriate for the fluid, rapidly changing environment of combat, when time and uncertainty are critical factors."
- Strategic Decisionmaking in the Information Age, Army War College Strategic Leadership Workshop (local copy), incl DOCs and PPTs
- Naturalistic Decision Making (local copy), "an attempt to understand how humans actually make decisions in complex real-world settings," by Klein and Klinger, 4 pages, in Human Systems IAC Gateway, vol XI, nbr 3 -- article contrasts naturalistic with recognition-primed decision (RPD) model
- Strategies of Decision Making (local copy), by Klein, in Military Review, May 1989
- Executive Decision Making (local copy, including bite-size pieces for faster loading), handbook from the Naval War College
- Case Studies in Policy Making and Implementation (local copy, including bite-size pieces for faster loading) - handbook from the Naval War College
- Syllabus for National Security Decision Making, Naval War College
- A Framework for Military Decision Making under Risks (abstract) (full copy), by Schultz, School of Advanced Airpower Studies (SAAS) - includes discussion of Eisenhower's decision regarding Operation Market Garden - see especially Chapter 2, Military Decision Making and Prospect Theory -
- Risk-Based Decision Making (RBDM), U.S. Coast Guard Research & Development Center, Groton, CT
- Applying Risk-based Decision-making Methods/Tools to U.S. Navy Antiterrorism Capabilities (local copy), by Mitchell and Decker, at Homeland Security Symposium and Exposition, 27 May 2004
- Decision Making and the Availability Heuristic - a self test of how publicity affects your reasoning
- Problem Solving and Decision Making: Consideration of Individual Differences - Using the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI), by Huitt
- Command Decisions, collection of essays on the key decisions by both sides in both theaters of WW II
- Some Commercial Tools
- Techniques for Effective Decision Making, at Mind Tools
- Decision-Making, by Kent, in AU Review, May-June 1971 - addressing the problems and use of analysis
- More On Decision-Making, by Blythe, in AU Review, Jan-Feb 1972 - follow-on and response to above article
- Organizations
- Decision Analysis Society
- European Association for Decision Making (EADM)
- Society for Judgment and Decision Making
- Society for Risk Analysis
- Center for the Decision Sciences, Columbia University
- Institutes and Schools
- Decision Consortium, U. of Mich.
- Josephson Institute of Ethics
- Journals
- Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, journal
- Journal of Behavioral Decision Making
- Journal of Risk and Uncertainty
- Medical Decision Making
- Society for Medical Decision Making (SMDM)
- Medical Decision Making journal
- Clinical Decision Making, MIT
- Gaming and Decision Theory
- Coevolution: Studying the Dynamics of Competition, and Gauss: Scenario Translation (local copy), by McDonald, of SAIC, at Project Albert International Workshop 5, posted by USMC Warfighting Lab - includes out-thinking, out-doing, reflexive control, OODA loop, recursive anticipation, co-adaptation, adaptive mental model, and more
- Game Theory.net, "a resource for educators and students of game theory"
- Stability Modeling and Game-Theoretic Considerations, Los Alamos National Labs (local copy)
- Decision-Theory for Crisis Management, Final Report, ARPA (local copy)
- A Framework for Military Decision Making under Risks (abstract) (full copy), by Schultz, School of Advanced Airpower Studies (SAAS) -- see especially Chapter 2, Military Decision Making and Prospect Theory
- A Complex Adaptive System (CAS) Approach to Public Policy Decision Making, by Eoyang, Yellowthunder, and Ward
- Using Decision Procedures to Accelerate Domain-Specific Deductive Synthesis Systems (local copy), by Baalen and Roach, NASA
- Tools for Decision Analysis: Analysis of Risky Decisions, probabilistic modeling, by Arsham, U. of Baltimore
- Methods for Eliciting Strategic Knowledge (Tables) (local copy), prepared for NATO Defense Group
Assumption-Based Planning
- The Importance of "Wild Card" Scenarios (local copy), by Dewar, for National Intelligence Council NIC 2020 project
- Assumption-Based Planning: A Planning Tool for Very Uncertain Times, by Dewar, Builder, Hix, and Levin, a RAND Monograph Report,
- other RAND reports concerning Assumption-Based Planning
- Assumption-Based Planning: a Tool for Reducing Avoidable Surprises, by Dewar, a RAND report, printed by Cambridge University Press
Game Theory
Uncertainty
- Journal of Risk and Uncertainty
- The Ecology of Uncertainty: Sources, Indicators, and Strategies for Informational Uncertainty (local copy), by Schunn et al, Naval Research Lab
- Decisionmaking Theory (local copy), Marine Corps Doctrine Publication 6
- "the intuitive approach is more appropriate for the vast majority of typical tactical or operational decisions-decisions made in the fluid, rapidly changing conditions of war when time and uncertainty are critical factors, and creativity is a desirable trait"
- Certain Uncertainty: Inoculating for Surprise, by Beaumont, in Air University Review
- Improving CIA Analytic Performance: Strategic Warning (local copy), by Davis, occasional paper for CIA's Improving CIA Analytic Performance: Strategic Warning - includes discussion of "Substantive Uncertainty and Strategic Warning" and "Analytic Tradecraft for Managing Substantive Uncertainty" and "Averting Strategic Surprise through Alternative Analysis"
Complex Systems
- See Chaos & Complexity on Theory page
- Leadership and Systems Thinking (local copy), by Reed, in Defense AT& L, May-June 2006 [AT & L = Acquisition, Technology & Logistics]
- The Department of Defense is a large and complex social system with many interrelated parts. As with any system of this type, when changes are made to one part,
many others are affected in a cascading and often unpredictable manner. Thus, organizational decisions are fraught with second- and third-order effects that result in
unintended consequences. “Fire and forget” approaches are rarely sufficient and are sometimes downright harmful.
- Peter Senge submits, in The Fifth Discipline, that systems thinking provides just the type of discipline and toolset needed to encourage the seeing of “interrelationships rather than things, for seeing patterns of change rather than static ‘snapshots.’” Senge argues that this shift of mind is necessary to deal with the complexities of dynamic social systems.
- Complexity, Conflict Resolution, and How the Mind Works, by Jones and Hughes, in Conflict Resolution Quarterly, Summer 2003
- New England Complex Systems Institute (NECSI)
- MIT Center for Coordination Science (CCS)
- MIT Artificial Intelligence Lab
- Overcoming the 90% Syndrome: Iteration Management in Concurrent Development Projects, by Sterman
Abductive, Deductive, and Inductive Reasoning
- See Holmes' comments above
- Peirce, Pragmatism, and The Right Way of Thinking (local copy), by Campbell, Sandia National Labs, Aug 2011
- Peirce is known as the founder of the philosophy of pragmatism and these lectures, given near the end of his life, represent his mature thoughts on the philosophy. Peirce’s decomposition of thinking into abduction, deduction, and induction is among the important points in the lectures.
- Adaptive Peircean Decision Aid Project Summary Assessments (local copy), by Senglaub, Sandia National Laboratories, Dec 2006
- Abstract - This effort's objective was to identify and hybridize a suite of technologies enabling the development of predictive decision aids for use principally in combat environments but also in any complex information terrain. The technologies required included formal concept analysis for knowledge representation and information operations, Peircean reasoning to support hypothesis generation, Mill’s canons to begin defining information operators that support the first two technologies and co-evolutionary game theory to provide the environment / domain to assess predictions from the reasoning engines. The intended application domain is the IED problem because of its inherent evolutionary nature. While a fully functioning integrated algorithm was not achieved the hybridization and demonstration of the technologies was accomplished and demonstration of utility provided for a number of ancillary queries.
- Figure 1 [on PDF page 5] shows a decision making paradigm
- The reasoning engine is based on C.S. Peirce’s model of scientific inquiry. This philosophical construct provides the foundation for how we as humans reason about situations new to us. This model consists of three reasoning capabilities; Abduction, deduction and induction. A crude way of looking at this suite of logic is abduction provides plausible hypotheses to explain an observation, deduction provides a basis for selecting from that set of hypotheses, and induction is the means to validate the hypothesis selected.
- Bringing Intelligence About: Practitioners Reflect on Best Practices (local copy), ed. by Swenson, Joint Military Intelligence College, 2003
- Reasoning: The ability to reason is what permits humans to process information and
formulate explanations, to assign meaning to observed phenomena. It is by reasoning
that analysts transform information into intelligence, in these three ways:
- 1. Induction: Inductive reasoning combines separate fragments of information, or specific answers to problems, to form general rules or conclusions. For example, using
induction, a child learns to associate the color red with heat and heat with pain, and then to generalize these associations to new situations. Rigorous induction depends
upon demonstrating the validity of causal relationships between observed phenomena, not merely associating them with each other.
- 2. Deduction: Deductive reasoning applies general rules to specific problems to arrive at conclusions. Analysts begin with a set of rules and use them as a basis for interpreting
information. For example, an analyst who follows the nuclear weapons program of a country might notice that a characteristic series of events preceded the last nuclear weapons test. Upon seeing evidence that those same events are occurring again, the analyst might deduce that a second nuclear test is imminent. However, this conclusion would be made cautiously, since deduction works best in closed systems such as mathematics, making it of limited use in forecasting human behavior.
- 3. Abduction: Abductive reasoning describes the thought process that accompanies “insight” or intuition. When the information does not match that expected, the analyst
asks “why?,” thereby generating novel hypotheses to explain given evidence that does not readily suggest a familiar explanation. For example, given two shipping manifests, one showing oranges and lemons being shipped from Venezuela to Florida, and the other showing carnations being shipped from Delaware to Colombia, abductive reasoning is what enables the analyst to take an analytic leap and ask, “Why is citrus fruit being sent to the worldwide capital of citrus farming, while carnations are being sent to the world’s primary exporter of that product? What is really going on here?” Thus, abduction relies on the analyst’s preparation and experience to suggest possible explanations that must then be tested. Abduction generates new research questions rather than solutions
- Essays and Arguments: A Handbook on Writing Argumentative and Interpretative Essays, by Johnston, May 2000, in public domain
- Section Five, Deduction and Induction
- Manual of Job-Related Thinking Skills (local copy), Department of Homeland Security - including deductive reasoning, reasoning with sets, inductive reasoning about real-world events, and statistical reasoning - includes quizzes throughout
- Statistics and Trace Evidence: The Tyranny of Numbers (local copy), by Houck, in Forensic Science Communications, FBI - discusses induction and deduction and their application in establishing evidence - see especially the section "How Do We Know All Ravens Are Black?"
- quick definitions at an NIH site listing desired job skills
- Deductive Reasoning - Able to apply general rules to specific problems to come up with logical answers, including deciding whether an answer makes sense.
- Inductive Reasoning - Able to combine separate pieces of information, or specific answers to problems, to form general rules or conclusions. This includes coming up with a logical explanation for why seemingly unrelated events occur together.
- Janusian Thinking and Acting (local copy), by Paparone and Crupi, in Military Review, Jan-Feb 2002
- The authors maintain that the current U.S. approach to military operations-strategic, operational, and tactical-is too linear for today's contemporary operating environment. They argue that future warfighters must move beyond linear thought and action to a realm of thinking and acting that recognizes and accepts paired yet opposite ideas and actions
- "Instead of ruling out alternative hypotheses, Janusian thinking calls on us to embrace contradictions as naturally occurring phenomena. When we create insights for thinking and acting from the Janusian framework, we achieve remarkable explanatory power over the nature of human information processing."
- The seats of reason? An imaging study of deductive and inductive reasoning, by Goel et al, Dept of Psychology, York U., North York, Ontario, CA -- abstract posted by National Library of Medicine
We carried out a neuroimaging study to test the neurophysiological predictions made by different cognitive models of reasoning. Ten normal volunteers performed deductive and inductive reasoning tasks while their regional cerebral blood flow pattern was recorded using [15O]H2O PET imaging. In the control condition subjects semantically comprehended sets of three sentences. In the deductive reasoning condition subjects determined whether the third sentence was entailed by the first two sentences. In the inductive reasoning condition subjects reported whether the third sentence was plausible given the first two sentences. The deduction condition resulted in activation of the left inferior frontal gyrus (Brodmann areas 45, 47). The induction condition resulted in activation of a large area comprised of the left medial frontal gyrus, the left cingulate gyrus, and the left superior frontal gyrus (Brodmann areas 8, 9, 24, 32). Induction was distinguished from deduction by the involvement of the medial aspect of the left superior frontal gyrus (Brodmann areas 8, 9). These results are consistent with cognitive models of reasoning that postulate different mechanisms for inductive and deductive reasoning and view deduction as a formal rule-based process.
PMID: 9175134 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]
- Deductive Logic, by St. George Stock, posted by Project Gutenberg
Counterfactual Reasoning
- Counterfactual Reasoning: A Basic Guide for Analysts, Strategists, and Decision Makers (local copy), by Hendrickson, The Proteus Monograph Series, Oct 2008
- Counterfactual reasoning is the process of evaluating conditional claims about alternate possibilities and their consequences (i.e., “What If” statements). These alternatives can be either past possibilities (e.g., “If the United States had not abolished the Iraqi army in 2003, then the Iraqi insurgency would have been significantly smaller in 2005”) or future possibilities (e.g., “If Iran had nuclear weapons, then it would provide this technology to Hezbollah”). Counterfactuals are essential to intelligence analysis because they are implicit in all strategic assessments.
- Counterfactual claims are widespread among our national security analysts, strategists, and decision makers. Unfortunately, this is not widely recognized. Furthermore, there is no comprehensive model of counterfactual reasoning to which anyone may turn if they do become aware of the ubiquitous nature of counterfactuals within intelligence and national security. Instead, there are several fragmented approaches in philosophy, logic, history, political science, and psychology. To make matters worse, none of these approaches has been applied to the unique challenges of intelligence and security. In response, this work seeks to demonstrate both the structure and the significance of counterfactual reasoning. It offers not only the first complete system of counterfactual reasoning (of which this author is aware), but the first one specifically designed to address the domain of intelligence analysis and national security. Furthermore, this work proposes three major claims about the place of counterfactual reasoning in analysis and strategy. Therefore, this work is not only intended to serve as an education in counterfactual reasoning, but also as an exhortation to counterfactual reasoning.
- First Major Proposal (The Strategic Presumption of Counterfactuals): All strategies (and analyses of them) are grounded in a series of counterfactual claims about alternate possibilities, their consequences, and the relationships between them.
- Second Major Proposal (The Systematic Potential of Counterfactuals): Major extant methods for assessing alternate possibilities, their consequences, and the relationships between them may be viewed as ultimately not distinct, but as aspects of a single process—counterfactual reasoning.
- Third Major Proposal (The Structural Priority of Counterfactuals): All assessment of alternate possibilities, their consequences, and the relationships between them should ultimately be conditional (as it is in counterfactual reasoning).
Dialectical Reasoning
- The Dialectical Dimension of the Moral Military Decision Making - an Idealistic Approach, by Stadler, for JSCOPE 2000 Conference
- Dialectical Versus Empirical Thinking: Ten Key Elements of the Russian Understanding of Information Operations (local copy), by Thomas, CALL Publication 98-21
- The Links between Science, Philosophy, and Military Theory:
Understanding the Past, Implications for the Future , by Pellegrini, for SAAS
- The effect of cultural differences in fear of isolation on dialectical reasoning, by Kim and Markman, U. of TX
Intuition
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant.
We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
— Albert Einstein
- See also creativity and innovation
- See tactical decision games on the Simuations page, contrasting intuitive and analytic approaches
- See also - Recognition-Primed Decision Model - references in the Decision-Making section above
- See also situation awareness
- Developing Intuitive Decision-Making In Modern Military Leadership (local copy), by McCown, Naval War College, 27 Oct 2010
- Strategic Decision Games: Improving Strategic Intuition (local copy), by DeFoor, Joint Advanced Warfighting School, 23 Apr 2007
- Reforming Pentagon Strategic Decisionmaking (local copy), by Lamb and Lachow, INSS, Strategic Forum No. 221, July 2006
- Lee’s Mistake: Learning from the Decision to Order Pickett’s Charge (local copy), by Gompert and Kugler, Defense Horizons number 54, Aug 2006
- Custer in Cyberspace (local copy), by Gompert and Kugler, Defense Horizons number 51, Feb 2006
- When conditions are complex and dynamic, time is short, and critical information is available, the key to making good decisions is to blend intuition with reasoning—more specifically, reliable intuition with timely reasoning.
- From "The Personal Relevance of Great Campaigns" - by Bird, 22 Feb 2001, Command and General Staff Officer's Course
- Carl Von Clausewitz explains that events in warfare are surrounded by uncertainty, and that there are few universal truths. Because of this, leaders must sort through this “fog” to find the truth, often a daunting endeavor that’s permeated by chance. The commander must sift through this information and decide what pieces are relevant and require action. Clausewitz specifically refers to the capability of the mind to discriminate information allowing quick, correct decisions. He describes this ability as coup d’oeil, “the quick recognition of a truth that the mind would ordinarily miss or would perceive only after long study and reflection.”2 Napoleon faced such a scenario in the battles of Jena-Auerstadt. With limited information, he turned an entire field army in place to seek decisive battle with the Prussians and won the day. [2Carl Von Clausewitz, On War, ed. and trans. by Michael Howard and Peter Paret, (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1976), p. 100-102. ]
- Coup D'Oeil: Strategic Intuition in Army Planning (local copy), by Duggan, Strategic Studies Institute (SSI), Nov 2005
- Command Decision-Making: Experience Counts (local copy), by Wolgast, Army War College paper, 2005
- Intuition: an Imperative of Command (local copy), by Rogers, in Military Review - examines relevance of intuition to decision making in the context of warfighting on the modern battlefield
- Tactical Intuition (local copy), by Reinwald, in Military Review, Sep-Oct 2000
- Intuition: An Instantaneous Backup System?, by Mrazek, in Air University Review
- Decisionmaking Theory (local copy), Marine Corps Doctrine Publication 6
- "the intuitive approach is more appropriate for the vast majority of typical tactical or operational decisions-decisions made in the fluid, rapidly changing conditions of war when time and uncertainty are critical factors, and creativity is a desirable trait"
- Note 18. Intuitive decisionmaking more appropriate for the vast majority of tactical/operational decisions: A 1989 study by Gary A. Klein (based on 1985 observations) estimated that decision makers in a variety of disciplines use intuitive methods 87 percent of the time and analytical methods 13 percent of the time. Evidence now suggests that this
study was actually biased in favor of analysis. More recent studies estimate the breakdown at more nearly 95 percent intuitive to 5 percent analytical. G. A. Klein, "Recognition-Primed Decisions" in William B. Rouse (ed.), Advances in Man-Machine System Research (Greenwich, CT: Jai Press, 1989); G. L. Kaempf, S. Wolf, M. L. Thordsen, and G. Klein, Decision Making in the Aegis Combat Information Center (Fairborn, OH: Klein Associates, 1992); R. Pascual and S. Henderson, "Evidence of Naturalistic Decision Making in Command and Control" in C. Zsambok and G. Klein (eds.), Naturalistic Decision Making, forthcoming publication (Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates); Kathleen Louise Mosier, Decision Making in the Air Transport Flight Deck: Process and Product, unpublished
dissertation (Berkeley, CA: University of California, 1990).
- Decision Making Theory (local copy), Naval Doctrine Publication 6, Naval Command and Control
- "The intuitive approach is clearly more appropriate for the fluid, rapidly changing environment of combat, when time and uncertainty are critical factors."
- The Warning Process and the Role of Intuition (local copy), course module from NOAA
- Intuitive Policing - Emotional/Rational Decision Making in Law Enforcement (local copy), by Pinizzotto et al, in the FBI Law Enforcement Bulletin, February 2004
- Cultivating Intuitive Decisionmaking (local copy), by Krulak, in Marine Corps Gazette, May 1999, as posted on the USMC Commandant's Page
- War in the Pits: Marine-Futures Traders Wargame (local copy), NDU Strategic Forum 61, by West
- Marine generals and colonels vs futures traders in decisionmaking wargame
- "The traders' OODA loop, executed at much higher speed, is ISAA: Information, Sort by Priority, Act, Assess"
- Virtual Stress (local copy), in Marines Online, senior Marines vs futures traders in decision making wargame
- Intuitive people worse at detecting lies, by Young, NewScientist.com, 18 Mar 2002
- People who think of themselves as being intuitive make worse lie detectors than those who do not trust in a "gut instinct", according to new research.
- One possible explanation is that intuitives in fact rely on common misconceptions about how to spot a liar, he says.
Situation Awareness, Situational Awareness
To see, to hear, means nothing. To recognize (or not to recognize) means everything.
— Andre Breton
- See also Intuition above
- See also Predictive Battlespace Awareness (PBA)
- Individual Situation Awareness (local copy), course module from NOAA
- Situation Awareness Definition (from Mica Endsley, 1988)
- Level 1 - Perception of the elements in the
environment within a volume of space
- Level 2 - Comprehension of their meaning
- Level 3 - Projection of their status in the near future
- Team Situation Awareness (local copy), course module from NOAA
- Situation Awareness Demons: the Enemies of
Situation Awareness (local copy), course module from NOAA
- Discusses the eight demons laid out by Endsley et al, in "Designing for Situation Awareness"
- Attentional Tunneling
- Requisite Memory Trap
- Workload, Anxiety, Fatigue, and Other Stressors (WAFOS)
- Data Overload
- Misplaced Salience
- Complexity Creep
- Errant Mental Models
- Out-of-the-Loop Syndrome
Ye Olde Brain, and Its Workings
The destiny of every human being is decided by what goes on inside his skull when confronted with what goes on outside his skull.
— Dr. Eric Berne
- Left-Brain/Right-Brain (local copy), from Army ROTC "Foundations for Success"
- Iain McGilchrist: The divided brain - a "Best of the Web" talk featured by TED
- Psychiatrist Iain McGilchrist describes the real differences between the left and right halves of the human brain. It's not simply "emotion on the right, reason on the left," but something far more complex and interesting. A Best of the Web talk from RSA Animate.
- Kwabena Boahen on a computer that works like the brain, a talk from TED.com (but you may need to watch it on YouTube if the TED.com version won't run on your computer)
- "Researcher Kwabena Boahen is looking for ways to mimic the brain's supercomputing powers in silicon -- because the messy, redundant processes inside our heads actually make for a small, light, superfast computer."
- Diane Benscoter on how cults rewire the brain, a talk from TED.com (but you may need to watch it on YouTube if the TED.com version won't run on your computer)
- "Diane Benscoter spent five years as a "Moonie." She shares an insider's perspective on the mind of a cult member, and proposes a new way to think about today's most troubling conflicts and extremist movements."
- talks about viral memetic infections and compromised emotional immune systems
- Al Seckel says our brains are mis-wired, a talk from TED.com (but you may need to watch it on YouTube if the TED.com version won't run on your computer)
- "Al Seckel, a cognitive neuroscientist, explores the perceptual illusions that fool our brains. Loads of eye tricks help him prove that not only are we easily fooled, we kind of like it."
- Steven Pinker on language and thought, a talk from TED.com (but you may need to watch it on YouTube if the TED.com version won't run on your computer)
- "In an exclusive preview of his book The Stuff of Thought, Steven Pinker looks at language and how it expresses what goes on in our minds -- and how the words we choose communicate much more than we realize."
- Keith Barry does brain magic, a talk from TED.com (but you may need to watch it on YouTube if the TED.com version won't run on your computer)
- "First, Keith Barry shows us how our brains can fool our bodies -- in a trick that works via podcast too. Then he involves the audience in some jaw-dropping (and even a bit dangerous) feats of brain magic."
- Department of Brain and Cognitive Sciences, MIT
- MIT CogNet: the Brain Sciences Connection
- Psychology of Intelligence Analysis (local copy), by Heuer, 1999, for CIA -- very good examination of many elements of critical thinking and mental processes, with examples (PDF version)
- Complexity, Conflict Resolution, and How the Mind Works, by Jones and Hughes, in Conflict Resolution Quarterly, Summer 2003
- Semiotic Fundamentals of Information Processing in Human Brain (local copy), by Perlovsky, Air Force Research Lab
- The paper discusses a mathematical nature of signs and symbols, and relates it to information processing and understanding, structure of the mind and brain, learning, and pattern recognition.
- Quantum Theory and the Role of Mind in Nature (local copy), by Stapp, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory
- On Quantum Theories of the Mind (local copy), by Stapp, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory
- A Quantum Theory of the Mind-Brain Interface (local copy), by Stapp, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory
- The Evolution of Consciousness (local copy), by Stapp, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory
- Values and the Quantum Conception of Man (local copy), by Stapp, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory
- additional work by Stapp
Miscellaneous
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