National Research Council reports for DNI, Mar 2011
Together, the two publications respond to a request from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence for up-to-date scientific guidance for the IC so that it might improve individual and group judgments, communication between analysts, and analytic processes.
The IC deserves great credit for its commitment to self-scrutiny and improvement, including its investments in lessons-learned, training, and collaboration procedures. Yet these efforts have been only weakly informed by the behavioral and social sciences. At the same time, post-9/11 changes in the IC have created unprecedented demands for that knowledge. In this context, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) asked the National Research Council to conduct a study to
synthesize and assess the behavioral and social science research evidence relevant (1) to critical problems of individual and group judgment and of communication by intelligence analysts and (2) to kinds of analytic processes that are employed or have potential in addressing these problems.
The study charge also asked for recommendations on analytic practices “to the extent the evidence warrants” and for future research, including the identification of impediments to implementation.
Each chapter introduces readers to a fundamental behavioral or social science approach as it applies to the kinds of complex, uncertain problems facing intelligence analysis. The topics covered include analytic methods, group dynamics, individual decision making, intergroup relations, evaluation, and communication.