Behavioral Influences Analysis
This document was prepared for the Behavioral Influences Analysis Center (BIAC), Air University, Maxwell AFB by the analysts of the Behavioral Influences Analysis Branch, National Air and Space Intelligence Center, Wright Patterson Air Force Base. The outline is intended to be used by faculty and students in an academic environment to facilitate adaptation of these concepts into the curricula at Air University. The purpose of this document is to provide a starting point for further research. This document is a working draft based on four years of methodology development using active intelligence analysis.
1.0. What is BIA?
Behavioral Influences Analysis is an analytic process or framework that provides intelligence to strategists, commanders, planners, targeteers, and operators to facilitate understanding and exploitation of the perceptual and behavioral context of the battlespace. Analysts use a research-based methodology incorporating principles from a wide range of social and engineering sciences, including sociology, cultural anthropology, and psychology, operations research, cognitive engineering and others.
BIA focuses, holistically, on adversary motivations, worldview, behavioral history, and the behaviors that will likely follow. To achieve sufficient understanding of a foreign individual, group, or military organization, analysts develop a knowledge base consisting of three knowledge domains of analytic interest covering cultural, organizational and cognitive strata. Careful study of the domains of analytic interest will allow the analyst to develop insight into the primary influences on behavior, namely worldview, motivations and behavioral history.
1.1. How is this framework used?
The BIA framework for analysis simply provides a methodical list of questions or concepts that guide investigation of the subject individual or group. It is not a model or simulation, although insights gleaned from the BIA framework can be used to test hypotheses using a range of existing software tools. Instead, the BIA framework guides the traditional analytical process, first by requiring the analyst to become familiar with the concepts and theories adapted for BIA. It is a starting point for academic inquiry. Second, the BIA framework provides a set of questions and considerations for planners and decision makers at the strategic, operational and tactical levels. By providing a systematic framework for examining these social-science concepts, BIA provides the warfighter with a unique perspective to addressing the human dimension of the battlespace. Finally, the BIA framework is a construct that guides traditional intelligence analysts, using existing intelligence resources and techniques, to provide insight into subject (adversary, bystander and ally) intent, as part of the traditional intelligence processes of Intelligence Preparation of the Battlespace and Predictive Battlespace Awareness. BIA is a tool to help the planner and decision-maker achieve precise effects, kinetic and non-kinetic, through all phases of military operations.
2.0. The Knowledge Domains of Analytic Interest: Culture, Organizations & Psychology
2.1. Culture. Belief systems, values, organizational norms and cognitive processes are directly shaped by the attributes of the culture in which a person matures; most individuals are acculturated by the age of 12. When operating in a new cultural environment, success depends upon the ability to adapt behaviors to new norms and expectations. Consequently, cultural awareness precedes true situational awareness when working to achieve effects in the cognitive domain of the battlespace, and failure to act in a culturally appropriate manner negatively impacts mission success.
2.1.1. Language. Central to understanding the adversary's culture is a survey or user understanding of the characteristics of the primary languages of the region. Many of the most effective sources for understanding a culture can only be exploited using the indigenous language; there is no substitution for language proficiency and immersion in the applicable culture(s). Additionally, it is important that an analyst's understanding of the language goes beyond merely speaking and reading the language, and extends to the contextual understanding of the language. Several linguistic characteristics provide analysts insight into the worldview and motivations, and consequently likely behaviors, in a given culture.2.2. Organizational factors. The second domain of analytic interest is organizations and institutions. Research has shown that the strongest constraints on behavior come from the expectations and norms of the familial, social, political and economic groups to which an individual belongs. There are 8 factors at the organizational level that if understood, become the basis for estimating group behavior.
22.214.171.124. Sociolinguistics. There are many definitions of sociolinguistics, perhaps due to the many concerns that sociolinguistics encompasses: code-switching; macro and micro levels; linguistic variations; dialects; accents; levels of diction; bilingualism; pidgin and creole; social variables such as ethnicity, religion, economic status, level of education and even how men and women speak to one another. However, as sociolinguistics applies to and is employed within the realm of BIA perhaps the most appropriate definition is simply:2.1.2. Religion. Religion can be defined as a set of beliefs, values, and practices pertaining to questions of 'ultimate concerns' that are agreed upon by a community.6 Questions of ultimate concern include but are not limited to the purpose of life, the existence and relevance of God or gods, the nature of suffering (why is there suffering or evil?), and the path to receiving blessing, inner peace, and happiness. Dr. Jonathan Fox, a political science professor at Bar-Ilan University in Israel, lists four social functions of religion in his book Ethnoreligious Conflict in the Late 20th Century. Understanding these functions provide insight into the likely range of subject behaviors.
Sociolinguistics is the study of how members of a culture, society, or group use language for communication and the insights that can be gained about the culture, society, group, or even individuals via language.
126.96.36.199.1. High vs. Low context. The amount of information conveyed explicitly in a language will vary from culture to culture. In high-context cultures, meaning is embedded more in the context rather than in the words themselves. Therefore, "most of the information is either in the physical context or internalized in the person" and less of the meaning is in the coded, explicit, transmitted part of the communication.1 This is contrary to low-context cultures, such as the American culture, which tend to place more meaning in the language and very little meaning in the context. In low-context cultures the meaning tends to be specific, explicit, and analytical.188.8.131.52. Psycholinguistics. A popular linguistics hypothesis called linguistic relativism suggests that an individual's language influences that individual's thought process and contextual understanding of his surrounding environment. This is to say that two individuals -- native speakers of distinct languages -- will have dissimilar worldviews and cognitive processes precisely because of their native language. Linguistic relativism hypothesis ranges from weak to strong versions, depending on the amount of influence a person's language has on that person's thought process. A proponent of the strong version, Edward Sapir, a one-time Yale professor and developer of the Sapir-Whorf Hypothesis, stated: The fact of the matter is that the 'real world' is to a large extent unconsciously built up on the language habits of the group. No two languages are ever sufficiently similar to be considered as representing the same social reality. The worlds in which different societies live are distinct worlds, not merely the same worlds with different labels attached.5
184.108.40.206.2. Direct vs. Indirect. Linguists and scholars have also distinguished some cultures in terms of indirect and ambiguous communication style (Arabic, for example) and direct cultures. From the American perspective of a clear and direct (univocal) communication style, high-context communication certainly may suggest ambiguity. However, within a high-context culture the understanding of a "message" depends more on shared contexts--history, ideology, shared experiences and common sentiments, trust, familial ties, tribal affiliation--than in univocal communication.
220.127.116.11.3. Emotion. There are other disparities between the high-context, low-context communication styles as well. The univocal (US/English) strives for emotional neutrality and objectivity or to "strip language of its expressive overtones and suggestive allusions."3 Univocality aims for the "precise representation of fact, technique, or expectation."4 Conversely, the indirect, ambiguous intentionally employs language to evoke emotional responses and thus provides an excellent means to express influence.
18.104.22.168.4. Oral and Non-Linear. Certainly the level and intensity, thus the influence, of a message's context versus its language, will vary throughout a given community. These variances will depend on several factors to include the receiver's level of education, nature of education (secular and/or religious), economic status, attachment to the community and physical environment, loyalty to family and community, ability and training to think critically, ideology, and to some extent exposure to Western culture.
22.214.171.124. Framework. Religion provides a meaningful framework for understanding the world (i.e., a worldview).2.1.3. Social Identity. A third aspect of culture, social identity refers to the membership or association of an individual with a primary and other human groups, ranging from a nuclear family and expanding outward based upon such factors as the individual's capacities, experiences, mobility, and location. In more traditional societies, the identity structure tends to be hierarchical, such as in Iraq, where self-identification (especially in rural areas) is typically most strongly the immediate family, then with descending importance extended family, village, clan, tribe, country, ethnicity, and religious sect.9
"Human beings need some sort of belief system or framework in order to comprehend the world around them. This includes the need to understand the nature of the physical universe, how it was created and how it functions. It also includes more philosophical questions like, among others, why are some more fortunate than others? What is the nature of man's soul? Why does evil exist? Is there life after death? And if so, how do we get there?"7
126.96.36.199. Rules and Standards. Religion provides rules and standards of behavior that link individual actions and goals to this meaningful framework. Religious frameworks usually provide adherents some sort of instructions guiding the behavior of adherents. Jews and Christians have the 10 Commandments. Buddhism has the Eight-Fold Path. Islam has several forms of shari?ah law. These are all examples of moral codes or laws.
188.8.131.52. Institutions. Religion links individuals to a greater whole and sometimes provides formal institutions, which help to define and organize that whole. "As long as a group adheres to a common religious framework which as associated with formal institutions, such as a church, temple, parachurch organization, those institutions become a convenient meeting place, means of communication, and basis for organization. Such an infrastructure is likely to be useful in mobilizing and organizing group action regardless of the grievances that originally motivated that action.... Religious organizations usually have places to meet, scheduled meetings, leaders, membership lists, and formal and informal communication networks. Announcements can be made at prayer sessions as well as through various communication networks. The formal meeting places provide a base of operations as well as places to meet. All this can facilitate organizing a group of people for political action regardless of the motivations for that action."8 The absence of a formal infrastructure will change the impact of the religion on an individual's behavior patterns.
184.108.40.206. Legitimacy. Religion has the ability to legitimize actions and institutions. By providing a moral authority that prescribes and proscribes behavior, religion has the ability to justify actions for their adherents. The flip side is that religions can also de-legitimize actions of others who fall short of their moral standards. But this legitimizing function of religion can also be expanded to institutions. One of the widely accepted truisms in politics is that religion can bolster (or weaken) the legitimacy of governments and opposition movements, as well as just about any political activity.
220.127.116.11. Ethnicity. Ethnicity is a powerful social identity, with multiple binding components: common biological origins, customs and habits, norms and mores, and even distinguishing physical features. Most often, ethnic groups share a common language, even if dialectical differences exist in sub-groups or geographically separated elements. When distinct ethnic groups, that are each homogeneous, are closely located, and their differences are significant, the psycho-social concept of "the other" frequently becomes powerful. This means that membership in one's ethnic group is regarded as superior to the "other" and that the blame for a range of dissatisfactions or circumstances is assigned to the other group, or ethnicity.10
18.104.22.168. Nationality. Nationality, in the geographic-political sense of identity -- with or without an ethnic foundation ? can be a formidable social identity, especially in more developed countries with great internal mobility. Thus, the national self-identification of citizens of Israel, Switzerland, Singapore, or the United States has much meaning based upon common experiences and challenges of a relatively recent historical origin, and unique political and humanist perspectives. Nationality with a common cultural and language base, has given rise to "nationalism" in the last century, which was a major force in de-colonization in Southeast Asia, and Africa.11
22.214.171.124. Place. There is a "power of place" that affects all humans; the affection for the familiar land of upbringing, and of the economic basis of life. In mainland Southeast Asia, there is a fundamental distinction, usually prejudicial, between the lowland rice growing majority populations and the mountain dwelling tribes, who live form the forest and different food production. Neither willing lives in the "other's" domain, and the sacred places of each are different. In all countries with seacoasts, there are ancient fishing communities where life is defined by the ocean and the weather, and seamanship is the primary skill of value.
2.2.1. Operational Code. This is the code, or set of written/unwritten rules, that defines roles, responsibilities, relationships, sanctions and rewards for members of an organization. Sources for operational codes:
- Social Movement/Tradition - Confucianism, Humanism
- Legal System - Napoleonic Code, Code of Hammurabi
- Warrior Mentality - Waziri, Zulu
- Political Ideology - Communism
- Corporate Code of Conduct - Japanese corporation (lifetime employment), mafia
2.2.2. Cohesion. A measurement of how well a group works together.
"Members' positive valuation of the group and their motivation to continue to belong to it."12
For military/combat units: "members' positive valuation of the group and their motivation to continue to belong to it and take significant personal risks for the group goals."
Group cohesion is affected by several factors. The three classes of variables are:
- person variables - abilities, personality traits, motives
- environmental (situational) variables - the effects of the immediate location and larger organization, community, social context
- task (mission/purpose) variables - factors associated with tasks or goals that the group is trying to achieve13
2.2.3. Friction. Forces working against cohesion; the natural forces that work against individuals working in groups. There are factors within an organization that impact individuals from working together. These factors can cause problems with communication among group members, degrade member trust, and affect the information flow of the organization. Cohesion and Friction are strongly related in a usually inverse relationship. Organizations with high cohesion usually have low friction. However, it is possible to have an organization with high cohesion with high friction, though it is difficult to do so for long periods of time. Friction is observable with the presence of cliques, factions, personality clusters or ideological divisions.
2.2.4. Organizational Structure. The way in which organizational elements are defined, arranged, and interrelated to form the organization and the characteristic pattern of relationships that results from this arrangement.14 Various organizational structures can be evaluated by their degree and type of horizontal differentiation, vertical differentiation, mechanisms of coordination and control, formalization, and centralization of power.15 Coordination within an organization occurs through rules, procedures, and shared traditions.16 These rules for coordination and information flow are a function of the structure.
2.2.5. Mission/Purpose. The objective for which an organization exists; it is an aim, goal, result, or effect that is intended or desired and as a result guides action.17 The mission or purpose of an organization is the unifying bond among members. The organization's behaviors are constrained to actions that promote the achievement of the mission or purpose. Voluntary members' personal objectives will usually be aligned with the organization's mission. Organizational elements may be designed to complete tasks that are subsets of the overall mission.
2.2.6. Membership/Leadership Selection. The process by which new members are recruited, selected, and enrolled into the organization and the process by which positions of power are filled. Understanding of group composition is necessary to estimate group behaviors. Prevalent traits of the membership such as common training, experience, and/or background can give insight into the organization's values and operational code.
2.2.7. Information Processing. The methods by which an organization conducts the information processing cycle.18 Critical elements include:
a) Acquisition2) Processing
i) Preferred sources of information for an organizationb) Data entry
ii) Information filters the organization applies
i) Information input points into the organizationc) Information validation
a) Dissemination mechanisms3) Storage
a) Organizational Memory - the record of an organization that is embodied in a set of documents and artifacts194) Output
a) Interactive queries5) Archiving or deletion of unwanted data
b) Routine reports
2.2.8. Decision Making Process. The process of interactions among individuals that lead to the selection of a particular course of action from among multiple alternatives.20 Groups make decisions according to decision rules that mark the choice that is made. There are several decision rules ranging from individualistic to collective:
- Dictatorship -- a single individual (typically with the greatest power) determines the course of action
- Plurality -- the largest block in a group decides
- Sub-committee -- a selected sub-set of the group evaluates the decision and makes recommendations to the larger group
- Consensus -- the majority approves a course of action and the minority agrees to abide by that choice
- Majority -- the majority of the members agree on a course of action
- Unanimity -- all members must agree on a course of action
2.3. Cognition. The third domain of analytic interest used to develop insights into worldview, motivations and behavioral history is culturally-mediated cognitive attributes. The cognitive processes used to select behaviors directly bound an adversary's range of likely behaviors. An individual's perceptual patterns, cognitive style, reasoning and judgment and decision selection process are key to estimating likely behaviors.
2.3.1. Perceptual Pattern. The process of social perception is of fundamental importance because it is through social perception that we obtain all of our information about the social world around us. Instead of passively accepting all of the information present in the world, perceivers select from among bits of information, forming categories and relationships and actively constructing their final precepts ... or interpretation of reality.21 Evidence indicates that this behavior varies by culture revealing patterns of attention and perception, with Easterners attending more to environments and Westerners attending more to objects; Easterners being more likely to detect relationships among events than Westerners.22 Most cultural perceptual patterns appear to fall somewhere in between the two extremes of Western and East Asian. Of course, general cultural tendencies do not apply to every person in the culture.3.0. Key Influences on Behavior.
The study of human behavior covers multiple disciplines, producing countless theories and counter theories. For the purposes of producing an operationally-relevant understanding of the key influences on human behavior, NASIC teamed with researchers from the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL).23 The resulting proposed model for understanding human behavior is underpinned by a careful study of the domains already addressed: Culture, Organization, and Individual Psychology. However, factors from these domains do not create behaviors; they inform/shape the influences that will bound the likely range of behaviors considered by the subject. Investigation of the three domains is useful to the analyst for providing insight into the key influences on behavioral choices, identified by the AFRL team as Worldview, Motivations and Behavioral History.
3.1. Worldview. A worldview is an individual's set of beliefs and assumptions about the world, and directly influences cognition and behavior. It is a construct that has been investigated several times in the history of modern psychology and has broad application to multiple individual and group behavioral theories. For the purposes of BIA, research performed by Dr. Mark Koltko-Rivera was adapted to provide a framework and definitions for understanding the worldview construct. His definition of worldview follows:
"A worldview is a way of describing the universe and life within it, both in terms of what is and what ought to be. A given worldview is a set of beliefs that includes limiting statements and assumptions regarding what exists and what does not (either in actuality, or in principle), what objects or experiences are good or bad, and what objectives, behaviors, and relationships are desirable or undesirable. A worldview defines what can be known or done in the world, and how it can be known of done. In addition to defining what goals can be sought in life, a worldview defines what goals should be pursued. Worldviews include assumptions that may be unproven, and even improbable, but these assumptions are superordinate, in that they provide the epistemic and ontological foundations for other beliefs within a belief system."24Some aspects of the Dr. Kolkto-Rivera construct require more inference and are of less direct application for BIA, therefore a limited set of worldview groups are currently adapted into BIA.
3.1.1. Will. Refers to beliefs about the telic, purposeful function of human life, including free will, determinism, and the rational and irrational roots of behavior. Dimensions include:3.2. Motivations. Human motivations are central to arousing and energizing behaviors, whether those factors are biological, learned or cognitive. The two social sciences most concerned with motivations are Motivation Theorists and Learning Theorists, who examine motivations and resulting behaviors focusing on dynamic and persistent factors respectively.25 The BIA motivation framework was designed to be comprehensive to provide a structure that would support a solid understanding of a group or organization's behavioral motivation set. Additionally, the concept is designed to be broad enough to provide a capability to support analysis of any group regardless of its geographical, social, economic, or cultural context. Therefore, the dissection of macro-level concepts was based upon themes that were common to a variety of cultures, but included variations that were unique based on a group's position within the social context.
- Agency (Volition, Determinism)
- Determining Factors (Biological, Environmental)
- Intrapsychic (Rational-conscious, Irrational-unconscious)
3.1.2. Cognition. This group includes beliefs about thought and mind and the reliable sources of knowledge. Dimensions include:
- Knowledge (Authority, Tradition, Senses, Rationality, Science, Intuition, Divination, Revelation, Nullity)
- Consciousness (Ego primacy, Ego transcendence)
3.1.3. Behavior. Beliefs about the focus of or guidelines for behavior. Dimensions include:
- Time Orientation (Past, Present, Future)
- Activity Direction (Inward, Outward)
- Activity Satisfaction (Movement, Stasis)
- Moral Source (Human source, Transcendent source)
- Moral Standard (Absolute morality, Relative morality)
- Control Location (Action, Personality, Luck, Chance, Fate, Society, Divinity)
- Control Disposition (Positive, Negative, Neutral)
- Action Efficacy (Direct, Thaumaturgic, Impotent)
3.1.4. Interpersonal. Beliefs about the proper or natural characteristics of interpersonal relationships and collectivities. Dimensions include:
- Otherness (Tolerable, Intolerable)
- Relation to Authority (Linear, lateral)
- Relation to Group (Individualism, Collectivism)
- Relation to Humanity (Superior, Egalitarian, Inferior)
- Relation to Biosphere (Anthropocentrism, Vivicentrism)
- Sexuality (Procreation, Pleasure, Relationship, Sacral)
- Connection (Dependent, Independent, Interdependent)
- Interpersonal Justice (Just, Unjust, Random)
- Interaction (Competition, Cooperation, Disengagement)
- Correction (Rehabilitation, Retribution)
3.2.1. Wealth. (Material, Armament, Land, People, Power) Wealth usually refers to money, property and trappings. It is the abundance of objects of value and also the state or condition of having accumulated these objects. Critical to the understanding of wealth is the assumption/acknowledgement of socially-accepted means of identifying objects, land, money, etc as "belonging to" someone, i.e. a broadly accepted notion of property and a means of protection of property that can be invoked with minimal effort and expense by the owner.3.3. Behavioral History. A significant aspect of estimating the likely future behaviors of a human actor is developing a comprehensive history of targeted behavior(s) relative to the situation being assessed. The analyst needs to answer the question, "How has this person or group acted in the past and what does that mean for the future?" Much of this information will come from classified intelligence sources. Considerations include:
3.2.2. Survival. (Alliances, Basic Needs) Survival is understood as the ability to withstand threats such as disease, hunger, unemployment, crime, social conflict, political repression, and environmental hazards- a condition of being free from danger in order to preserve life or a way of life. Threats to survival can be economic, ecological, social, and political, and they can occur as "sudden shocks, long-tem trends, or seasonal cycles." While there are many factors that are involved in influencing the behaviors of groups/institutions/individuals etc, survival is perhaps the only "cut through"; it is present in almost all conditions and environments. Often when confronted by the desire to preserve survival other factors will be mitigated in the decision making process.
3.2.3. Power. (People, Lineage, Prestige, Influence, Sovereignty, Wealth, Religion) The possession of control or command over others, the lure of power serves as a potential motivating factor for the actions, values, and behaviors of groups and/or individuals. Often individuals and/or groups actions are related to the acquisition or maintenance of power within a nation, region, or internationally. How a culture defines power has an immediate impact on how power is sought or held. Prestige can be linked to ideals associated with honor/sname, reputation, social status, and/or privilege. The ability of groups or individuals to influence events or behaviors can be limited or shaped by networks, education, experiences, resources, and/or ability. In certain contexts, the concept of lineage may be an overwhelming factor in power structures as it pertains to familial, historical, mythological, and/or non-traditional structures. Additionally, religion can serve as a power platform using supernatural, mythological, sectarian, traditional, hierarchical, and divinities to support political, social, and/or economical agendas.
3.2.4. Religion. (Supernatural/ Myth, Sects, Traditions, Divinity, Power) A specific and institutionalized set of beliefs and practices generally agreed to by a number of persons or sects. Religion has been identified as a key factor of motivation as it is an element common to all societies that can inspire both positive and negative actions from its adherents and detractors. The value of religion and the amount of influence it has within society is not a fixed point, and its value is largely dependent upon a myriad of variables to include political and social developments. Additionally, there may be a divergence within a group between identification with a particular religion and the actual value the belief system of religious doctrine has within their lives.26
3.2.5. Hierarchy. (Power Transfer, Government, Military, Organizational, Lineage) Hierarchy is identified by the notion of social order or social structure within an institution. The extent to which an organization can be defined using specificities such as: lineage, succession, authority, absolute, political; history, succession, hereditary, group/tribe; monarch, chiefdom-chieftaincy, despotism; administrative, political, operational; traditional ruling. Social stratification created through an organization structure directly influences behavior and decision making of all members of a culture.
3.2.6. Livelihood. (Subsistence, Profession/ Job, Gender Roles, Welfare, Security) Livelihood represents goods and money intended for consumption as a means of support and survival. Livelihood is measured on the basis of being correspondent to necessities and needs, during a period of time, of the target group. A major component of livelihood is the manner in which groups/individuals achieve or earn their means of support, the amount of satisfaction it provides, and the ability to preserve the status quos. Potential behaviors by various groups/individuals are dramatically swayed by their perceived status or level of livelihood or their ability to maintain/increase their potential. Where individual/group livelihood requirements meet expected needs and desires, the likelihood of utilizing this factor for influence decreases.
3.2.7. Morality. (Culture, Religion, Ethics, Legality, Virtue) The relationship of conformity or nonconformity to the accepted moral standard or rule by exhibiting a quality of an intention, a character, an action, a principle, or a sentiment, when tried by the standard of societal right. Cultures place varying degrees of emphasis on events or actions based upon their accepted moral code. These are ethnically based and vary from culture to culture. Main tenets that allow these moral codes to take place are prejudice, race relations, foods and traditions, cultural icons/monuments, and sacrosanct areas. The way in which a culture perceives and implements their endemic moral code will dictate not only how their culture develops but ultimately how it interacts with other cultures and society as a whole.
3.3.1. Frequency. How often is this behavior observed? Non-routine behaviors require controlled information processing, which uses more deliberate effort and thought. Routine behaviors imply stability of intention and less deliberate thought.
3.3.2. Context. What is the stability of the context of the observed behaviors? Behaviors initiated in a stable context are more likely to be similar to previous behaviors.
126.96.36.199. A strong positive relationship is observed between frequently practiced behaviors observed in a stable context.273.3.3. Triggers. Are there "triggers" from the external environment, from within the organization, or elsewhere that can be expected to energize the observed behavior? What are those triggers, can they be initiated or controlled from other sources? How strong is the apparent association between the trigger and the behavior?
3.3.4. Intensity. What is the intensity of the behavior? This allows the analyst to consider affective aspects of the situation.
3.3.5. Recency. How recent is the behavior? The more recent the historical behavior, the more relevant it is to likely future behaviors.
3.3.6. Variations. Are there variations and anomalies? What are the apparent underlying causes of the variation?
3.3.7. Personality. A body of theory holds that certain enduring traits predispose individuals to certain types of behavior. There is some ambiguity regarding how well this theory translates in a cross-cultural environment, but this approach is worth considering as part of the total analytical effort.28
1. Hall, Edward T., Beyond Culture. New York: Doubleday, 1976, page 79
2. Ting-Toomey, Stella. "Toward a Theory of Conflict and Culture," in W. Gudykunst, L. Stewart & S. Ting-Toomey (Eds.), Communication, Culture and Organizational Processes. Beverly Hills: Sage, 1985.
3. Levine, Donald N. The Flight from Ambiguity: Essays in Social and Cultural Theory, University of Chicago Press, 1985
4. Zaharna, R.S., "Bridging Cultural Differences: American Public Relations Practices & Arab Communication Patterns" draft, final appeared in Public Relations Review, 21 (1995), 241-255
5. Swoyer, Chris. The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, supplement to section on Relativism, 2003.
6. While this definition may be "original" in the sense that I developed the wording, it contains elements from other definitions of religion. For example, religion being described as a set of beliefs and practices can be found in sociologist Émile Durkheim's definition. Religion addressing "ultimate concern" can be found in psychiatrist and existentialist Irvin D. Yalom's definition of religion (Yalom did not invent the term "ultimate concern." He borrowed it from theologian Paul Tillich, who borrowed from earlier existentialist writers). And the idea of religion being agreed upon by a number of adherents and uniting them into a community can be found in Durkheim's definition as well.
7. Fox, Jonathan. Ethnoreligious Conflict in the Late 20th Century, USA: Lexington Books, 2002, page 104.
8. Fox, 118-119.
9. Patai, Raphael. The Arab Mind, 1973; Wunderle, William. Cultural Awareness: A Primer for US Armed Forces Deploying to Arab and Middle Eastern Countries, 2006; King, Linda. Roots of Identity: Language and Literacy in Mexico, 1994
10. Salzmann, Zdenek. Language, Culture and Society: An Introduction to Linguistic Anthropology. Westview Press, 1993
11. Fisher, Glenn. Mindsets: The Role of Culture and Perception in International Relations , Intercultural Press, 1997
12. Janis, I. L., Groupthink: Psychological Studies of Policy Decisions and Fiascoes, 2nd Edition, Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1983, page 4
13. Davis J. H. Group Performance, Reading, Mass: Addison-Wesley, 1969 - cited in Burton G. & Dimbleby R. Between Ourselves: an Inroduction to Interpersonal Communication, London: Edward Arnold, 1988
15. "Organizational Theory: Determinants of Structure" lesson from MB 022: Introduction to Organizational Behavior - 2001, by Stephen P. Borgatti
16. "Organizational Structure", from DRM Associates
19. "Capturing Organizational Memory," white paper by E. Jeffrey Conklin, at Touchstone Consulting Group, Inc.
20. Wikipedia entry for "decision making"
21. Shiraev E. and Levy. D. Cross-Cultural Psychology. Needham Heights, MA: Allyn & Bacon, 2004
22. Nisbett, Richard E., The Geography of Thought, Free Press, 2003
23. Dr. Tim Gameros, AFRL/HE; referenced models include
model of individual differences (Revelle),24. Koltko-Rivera, Mark E., "The Psychology of Worldviews," Review of General Psychology, 2004, Vol 8, No. 1, page 4
health behaviors heuristic (Pick et al),
psychological assessment process (ex. Sequoia),
PSYOP target audience analysis techniques (Psychological Operation Officer’s Course (POOC)),
and other various and sundry theories and models
motivation theory (Alderfer, d'Andrade, Maslow, Murray),
personality theory (McCrae and Costa, Eysenck),
situation awareness (Endsley),
theory of planned behavior (Azjen)
25. Franken, Robert E. Human Motivation, 3rd ed., Brooks/Cole Publishing 1994. pages 2-25
26. Example: Eighty percent of the Slavic Russian population identify themselves as members of the Russian Orthodox Church, however, only six to seven percent attend services regularly.
27. Ouellette, Judith A. and Wendy Wood. "Habit and Intention in Everyday Life: The Multiple Processes by Which Past Behavior Predicts Future Behavior." Psychological Bulletin, 1998, No. 1, pages 54-74.
28. Nisbett, Richard E., The Geography of Thought, Free Press, 2003