see also
io research
influence ops
info-ops ref
culture
language
psy of terr

Back to Events

see also Analysis Tools page

Inferring Adversary Intent & Estimating Behavior

18-20 Mar 2008

Behavioral Influences Analysis Center (BIAC) Workshop

18 Mar 08, Tuesday
0800 - 0850	Introduction and Behavioral Influences Analysis Mission and Methodology Overview	Greg Jannarone Director of BIAC
0900 - 0950	Dynamic Adversarial Gaming (DAGA) Fused Intent Systems (FIS)	Dr. Lee Krause Securboration, collaborating with Dartmouth College
1000 - 1040	ACCORD: simple, no-math Bayesian tool for analyst support	Dr. E.L. Perry Air Force Wargaming Institute
1050 - 1130	OSINT in/from Academia: S&T Developments and Human Network Discoveries	Dr. Bob Norton Auburn University
1130 - 1300	Lunch (also, tools/methods demonstrations, as desired)	ALL
1300 - 1350	Influence Net (PYTHIA) and Bayesian Net Approaches: Semi-Automated Generation of Influence Nets	Dr. Lee W. Wagenhals George Mason University System Architecture Laboratory
1400 - 1430	CAESAR III: Organizational Design and Analysis	Dr. Lee W. Wagenhals George Mason University System Architecture Laboratory
1430 - 1500	Commander's Predictive Environment (CPE) program	Dr. Janet Miller Human Effectiveness Directorate Air Force Research Lab
1500 - 1630	Models, software tools, methods discussion, laptop demonstrations -- FUNDAMENTAL conference purpose	ALL
19 Mar 08, Wednesday
0800 - 0825	TEMPER - TEMPoral ProgrammER	Dr. Lee W. Wagenhals George Mason University System Architecture Laboratory
0825 - 0850	Model and Tool Interoperation - ORA-CAESAR III-PYTHIA example	Dr. Lee W. Wagenhals George Mason University System Architecture Laboratory
0900 - 0950	Automated Text Extraction (ATEA), from AFRL	Carrie Pine Mark Zappavinga AFRL/REID, Rome Labs Air Force Research Lab
1000 - 1050	Human Network Systems: Analysis & Operations	Dr. Richard F. Deckro AFIT/Operations Research Air Force Institute of Technology
1100 - 1130	Java Causal Analysis Tool (JCAT), a Bayesian inference/belief network tool from AFRL	Craig McNamara contractor, AFRL Air Force Research Lab
1130 - 1300	Lunch (also, tools/methods demonstrations, as desired)	ALL
1300 - 1350	Dynamic Network Analysis: AUTOMAP-ORA-DYNET	Terrill Frantz Center for Computational Analysis of Social and Organizational Systems (CASOS) Carnegie Mellon University
1400 - 1450	From Raw Source Data to Simulation	Terrill Frantz CASOS Carnegie Mellon University
1450 - 1630	Models, software tools, methods discussion, laptop demonstrations -- FUNDAMENTAL conference purpose	ALL
20 Mar 08, Thursday - BIA Methodology Overview/Practice
0800 - 1130	BIA Workflow and Tools - Overview [see also Methodology page] Beliefs, Attitudes & Behavior Morning sessions: BIA Methodology steps 1 thru 7, the front end, "Adversary Past/Present Behavioral Analysis" - description, explanation, and practice: understanding behavior Step 1 - Values, Beliefs, Worldview Step 2 - Operational Behavior History Step 3 - Perceptions Steps 4-6 - Motivations, Current Capabilities, and Situational Factors (what, how, context) Steps 7-8 - Decision Process & Intent	Greg Jannarone, Director, BIAC
1130 - 1300	Lunch (time available for clarification/more details, optional)	ALL
1300 - 1630	Steps 8-13, the back end, "Adversary Behavioral Assessment" - description, explanation, and practice: selecting/recommending behavioral influence applications Steps 7-8 - Decision Process & Probable Intent Step 9 - Likely (Operational) Behavior (COAs) Steps 10-11 - Vulnerability and Susceptibility Steps 12-13 - Accessibility and Recommendations (click on image to enlarge) Recommended books Adversarial Reasoning: Computational Approaches to Reading the Opponent's Mind, ed. by Kott and McEneaney, 2007 Cross Cultural Psychology: Critical Thinking and Contemporary Applications, by Shiraev and Levy, 2007 Organizational Simulation, by Rouse and Boff, 2005 Cultural Anthropology: a Problem-Based Approach, by Robbins, 2006 Culture & Psychology, by Matsumoto and Juang, 2008 Understanding Culture's Influence on Behavior, by Brislin, 2000 Know Thy Enemy II, Kindt, Post, and Schneider, ed.s, USAF Counterproliferation Center, 2007	Greg Jannarone, Director, BIAC