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18-19 Sep 2007

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Strategy to Tactics:
BIA for Actionable Insights on Adversary Behavior

18-19 Sep 2007

Behavioral Influences Analysis Center (BIAC) Workshop
18 Sep 07, Tuesday
time subject presenter
0800 Welcome & Overview Greg Jannarone
Director of BIAC
0830 BIAC Mission Brief Greg Jannarone
0900 Socio-Cultural Information Context LtCol/Dr. Chris Rate
0930 Beliefs, Attitudes & Behavior LtCol/Dr. Mike Kindt, USAF Counterproliferation Center
0950 Step 1: Values/Beliefs/Worldview LtCol(sel) Elizabeth Chamberlain
1030 Step 2: Operational Behavioral History Greg Jannarone
1050 Step 3: Perceptions
(how they see us and the situation;
patterns and filters)
LtCol(sel) Chamberlain
1300 Steps 4-6: Motivations, Current Capabilities, and Situational Factors (what, how, context) Greg Jannarone
1400 Work thru steps 1-6 on real world cases attendees break into four
analysis groups
1625 Reassemble: feedback on "information voids, sticky points, and analysis procedures" and questions on Steps 1-6, data handling, and weighting factors group presenters
1645 Optional tools demos & discussion Presenters and tools experts
19 Sep 07, Wednesday
0815 On-Line Information Emporium Mike McKim
Director of Technology
Air War College
0830 Software tools/systems for managing and exploiting socio-cultural information Dr. Sue Numrich
Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA)
0900 Bayesian tools/approaches to explore multi-factor causality, & probable “behaviors" Dr. E.L. Perry
USAF Wargaming Institute
0920 Steps 7-8: Decision Process & Intent (adversary perceived options, and preferences) Greg Jannarone
1000 Step 9: Likely (operational) Behavior LtCol(sel)Chamberlain
and Greg Jannarone
1050 Steps 10-11: Vulnerabilities & Susceptibilities LtCol(sel) Chamberlain
1300 Steps: 12-13: Accessibility & Recommendations (if/as/when appropriate) Greg Jannarone
1400 Work thru steps 7-13 on real world cases attendees break into four
analysis groups
1640 Reassemble: feedback, critiques, questions in sequence order - each group uses 10 minutes to share “where we are/what we would need to finish” and offer observations on methodology group presenters
1720 BIAC Staff observations, initial “methods lessons learned,” and next BIAC Conference invite Greg Jannarone & staff

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