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graph of developing bia recommendations
Developing BIA Recommendations
(click on image for larger version)

“Strategy to Tactics: BIA for Actionable Insights on Adversary Behavior”
- Annual BIA Methodology Conference, 18-19 September 2007




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page reviewed/updated 21 Mar 2011



Overview ___return to top


BIA Methodology Description ___return to top


Definitions ___return to top


Core Questions ___return to top

  • WHO ... is the adversary, in terms of his motivations and "behavioral history?"

  • WHY ... would an adversary or competitor choose to oppose us?

  • HOW LIKELY ... is the adversary to select any one of the behaviors (courses of action) available to him?
    calculating most likely behaviors


Analytical Workflow ___return to top

  • General to Specific (macro to micro behavioral components);
    Knowledge to Assessments;
    Behavioral Principles to Behavioral Differences

  • Values, Beliefs, Worldview (cultural anthropology/social psychology)
    ... Operational Behavioral History (organizational dynamics)
    ...... Perceptions
    ......... Motivations (needs and objectives)
    ............ Current Capabilities
    ............... Situational Factors
    .................. Decision Process
    .................... Probable Intent
    ....................... Likely Behavior (adversary COAs)
    ........................... Vulnerabilities
    .............................. Influence Susceptibilities
    ................................ Accessibility
    ................................... Recommendations

  • Developing BIA Recommendations, graphic by Chamberlain


Motivations ___return to top

  • see also Maslow's Hierarchy

  • Motivation: a need or desire that energizes and directs individual or group behavior

    • Religion
      • Supernatural/Myth
      • Sects
      • Traditions
      • Divinity
      • Power
    • Morality
      • Culture
      • Religion
      • Ethics
      • Legality
      • Virtue
    • Power
      • People
      • Lineage
      • Prestige
      • Influence
      • Sovereignty
      • Wealth
      • Religion
    • Wealth
      • Material
      • Armament
      • Land
      • People
      • Power
    • Survival
      • Alliances
      • Basic Needs
    • Livelihood
      • Subsistence
      • Profession/Job
      • Gender Roles
      • Welfare
      • Security
    • Hierarchy
      • Power Transfer
      • Government
      • Military
      • Organizational
      • Lineage

Threat Assessment ___return to top


Summary ___return to top

  • All missions have a human context: cultural, organizational, psychological

  • Battlespaces are shaped, prepared, and exploited to achieve influence effects

  • Adversary behavior can be influenced through relevant knowledge, analysis, targeting, and means


Related References ___return to top

  • National Research Council reports for DNI, Mar 2011

      Together, the two publications respond to a request from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence for up-to-date scientific guidance for the IC so that it might improve individual and group judgments, communication between analysts, and analytic processes.

      • Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences, from the National Academies Press, Mar 2011
        • The IC deserves great credit for its commitment to self-scrutiny and improvement, including its investments in lessons-learned, training, and collaboration procedures. Yet these efforts have been only weakly informed by the behavioral and social sciences. At the same time, post-9/11 changes in the IC have created unprecedented demands for that knowledge. In this context, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) asked the National Research Council to conduct a study to

            synthesize and assess the behavioral and social science research evidence relevant (1) to critical problems of individual and group judgment and of communication by intelligence analysts and (2) to kinds of analytic processes that are employed or have potential in addressing these problems.

          The study charge also asked for recommendations on analytic practices “to the extent the evidence warrants” and for future research, including the identification of impediments to implementation.

      • Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations, from the National Academies Press, Mar 2011 - collection of individually authored papers
        • Each chapter introduces readers to a fundamental behavioral or social science approach as it applies to the kinds of complex, uncertain problems facing intelligence analysis. The topics covered include analytic methods, group dynamics, individual decision making, intergroup relations, evaluation, and communication.

  • Social Identity, an introduction, by Jannarone, Oct 2006

  • Assessing the Tradecraft of Intelligence Analysis, by Treverton and Gabbard, RAND report, 2008

  • Improving Analysis: Dealing with Information Processing Errors (local copy), by Rodgers, Air Force Research Lab, Human Effectiveness Directorate, Nov 2006

  • Psychology of Intelligence Analysis (local copy), by Heuer, 1999, for CIA -- very good examination of many elements of critical thinking

  • The Psychology of Worldviews, by Koltko-Rivera, in Review of General Psychology, 2004 vol. 8 no. 1






























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